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Upstate/Eastern New York


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6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

I've got 85F here in the burbs. Helluva way to run a "deadly heatwave"...where the Sizzle?

I'm back in Michigan visiting all of our friends and celebrating my 40th birthday (time goes sooo fast).

Sorry (not sorry) for ruining your sizzle.

You reported a cool breeze by your pool? I see my ice cubes are working...

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 After that, strong
storms still expected for afternoon and evening hours as shortwave
on southern edge of mid-level trough currently driving storms
northern IN to se MI arrives during peak heating with at least weak
sfc troughing also noted moving into WNY this afternoon. Ample
instability with MLCAPES 1500-2000J/kg and shear is coming up now,
with at least 25-30kts, still weak, but more than it looked like a
couple days ago. Low-level shear is stronger though at 30-35 kts.
Risk of severe looks justified with multicell downbursts/wind damage
the most likely mode. Heavy rain a hazard also with PWATS to 1.8
inches or closing in on 200 pct of normal so we remain under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. SPC continues to keep
our area in a marginal risk of severe.

 

 

Some storms as well again on Wednesday with MLCAPES 2000-2500J/kg
that is VERY impressive for our region. Given the instability alone,
even though shear is lower, could see isolated downbursts and wind
damage along with torrential downpours. Coverage of storms, at least
most of Wednesday, looks a bit lower than what we we`ll see this
afternoon. Coverage may increase late with approach of another
shortwave trough in the quasi-zonal flow. SPC and WPC have marginal
risks again for our area for severe and excessive rainfall.

 

 

Attention will then turn to a weakening boundary that will approach
the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. While 0-
6km shear is unimpressive at 25-30 knots, forecast BUFKIT CAPE
values are rather healthy and north of 2K J/KG. Furthermore, the
environment is moisture laden with PW values around 2.0 inches.
Taking all this into account, showers and thunderstorms will likely
increase in coverage as the boundary approaches and then moves into
the region. Any stronger storms will likely have the potential to
produce torrential downpours and gusty winds. WPC has our region in
a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Also, SPC has the area in a
Marginal Risk for SVR storms. The main threat being damaging wind
gusts. This is highlighted in the HWO.

 

Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
as a stronger front approaches and then moves through the area at
some point Friday night. Although, there is some timing issues with
the frontal passage. With that said, once the front moves through it
will then likely bring about some much needed relief from the heat
and lower humidity levels.
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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

WPC honing in on east of Ontario which is what the euro has been advertising the last several runs..

 

p120i (12).gif

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-08-10T105607.689.png

Not exactly what we need.  Fortunately, its just a model.  

Cloud cover is keeping a lid on things here this a.m.  Mid 80s and high dewpoint but so far... #SizzleFail

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Winter analogs very early from ohweather

So this year I'm playing with cool ENSO - moderate La Ninas, and looking (if possible) for ones with an easterly QBO, a negative IOD and a warm west Pac. Also, the lower frequency forcing this summer so far has been most favored over the western Pacific. It's an interesting set of analogs, with years like 74-75, 00-01, 05-06, 12-13 and 17-18 showing up in there, but also a disaster like 11-12 hitting many of those too. 

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27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Winter analogs very early from ohweather

So this year I'm playing with cool ENSO - moderate La Ninas, and looking (if possible) for ones with an easterly QBO, a negative IOD and a warm west Pac. Also, the lower frequency forcing this summer so far has been most favored over the western Pacific. It's an interesting set of analogs, with years like 74-75, 00-01, 05-06, 12-13 and 17-18 showing up in there, but also a disaster like 11-12 hitting many of those too. 

I'm mentally preparing for a hat trick of 3 subpar winters in a row. 

Actually, subpar would be under par, which is good in golf. Wonder why it's a common expression to convey disappointment. Random thought as I gleefully await the Sizzle.

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The main forecast concern is the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Model
guidance is not in good agreement with most mesoscale guidance
generally more aggressive developing convection than the lower
resolution guidance is today. Increasingly unstable this
afternoon with ML CAPEs 1500-2000 J/Kg developing by late
afternoon. There also be ample wind shear in place to support
organized convection, with 700 mb winds increasing to 35-40 kts
along with some directional shear this afternoon and early
evening. Expect storms to start developing across Western New
York this afternoon then expand in coverage, potentially
developing into a line as the activity moves eastward across the
area through around 9 p.m. Gusty winds would be the primary
severe weather threat.

There`s also a secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall and
flooding today. Storms will be moving which could mitigate this
risk some, but with the 12Z Buffalo sounding showing a
precipitable water values of 1.84 inches locally heavy downpours
are also a concern.

Otherwise, today will be another hot day with heat index values
rising into the 90s. Showers and storms may keep high
temperatures cooler in some spots so it`s possible some areas
may not quite hit the heat advisory criteria this afternoon.
Even so, it will be hot and humid and at least very close to
heat advisory criteria, with no changes in the headlines
planned for today.
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