CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much sticking out into the ocean which helps us with these late developing nor’easters. The models aren’t quite there yet, looking at the upper levels it looks like the storm initially goes out to sea and the models are trying to phase the northern branch in, tilt the trough negatively and hook the low back in. Right now it’s just a bit too progressive to hook the low back in, but the overall pattern suggests that there is room for a cleaner phase and for the trough to go negative a little earlier, which would allow for the low to initially go to bermuda and then retrograde back in and slam eastern New England with a blizzard. I have seen several posts indicating that the overall longwave pattern is too far east to allow this low to come to the benchmark, which I agree with. The low isn’t coming to the benchmark, it’s going to likely be at least 100-200 miles southeast (probably more). The low will be tapping into incredible amounts of gulf moisture as the low develops to our south, and then once the northern stream phases in and the trough tilts negatively over the Atlantic Ocean, the low will get hooked back in to around what I believe to be 200-300 miles southeast of the benchmark. That’s out to sea! That means we aren’t getting anything right? In my opinion, that is wrong. My analogs are March 8th 2013 and March 13th 2018, both which were large ocean storms that went “out to sea”, hundreds of miles southeast of the benchmark. However, these storms had a similar longwave pattern with the unusual scenario where the storm fully phased over the Atlantic, and the trough tilted negatively which allowed the storm to retrograde from east to west, loop, and stall around 200 to even 500 miles southeast of the benchmark. While the low was out to sea, this unusual retrograding motion driven by the phasing and negatively tilted trough allowed for copious amounts of warm March gulf and Atlantic moisture from the rapidly strengthening offshore low to be rammed into the cold dry air in eastern mass. This would allow for heavy bands of snow to back in, strengthen, and rot over eastern mass for a long duration snowstorm. I know the models don’t look great right now but the pattern is screaming surprise early spring blizzard in eastern mass, and the euro and navy got better overnight, as the northern branch is phasing in earlier and the trough is going negative earlier, allowing the low to hook back in a bit (not enough yet, but closer than it looks at the surface). It’s important to keep in mind the navy has a progressive bias so seeing it as the second farthest west model is a sign that the models are too far east with the low.

There must be a big storm over the Mediterranean that could get a hankerin for some Portuguese Kale Soup and then before you know it, its sucked out into the Atlantic into a ginormous negatively titled trough covering the entire North Atlantic.  I know this sounds crazy, but what if it then feels the gulf stream?  Then what?  Does it get pulled even further west towards the benchmark?  And it brings a quadruple phasing of Mediterranean, Adriatic,  Gulf, and Atlantic moisture.  I think there's a record of something similar happening on Pangea, before it all split apart, only there was less moisture involved so this would be a bigger record setting storm of multiple feet every day

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we're on the verge of bitterly cold windchills, sub zero temps, HWWs, and squalls up the wazoo.....and all anyone can think about is if DC got more than 5" of snow this year. If this front came thru in December people would be all over it.  Sad that it's come to this. 

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

do you have my 21 bun salute img?

No but i have this one for you

weenietag.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

we're on the verge of bitterly cold windchills, sub zero temps, HWWs, and squalls up the wazoo.....and all anyone can think about is if DC got more than 5" of snow this year. If this front came thru in December people would be all over it.  Sad that it's come to this. 

Meh it will be almost 50F on Wednesday. It’s short lived and not bringing any meaningful snow with it. Just a nuisance really.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So 50’s were forecast for today and the high was 38.2. And now crashing.

Not bad 

Terrible. 

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19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So 50’s were forecast for today and the high was 38.2. And now crashing.

Not bad 

 

In April 2021, Damage In Tolland said:

So 60’s were forecast for today and the high was 48.2. And now crashing.

Not bad 

 

In May 2021, Damage In Tolland said:

So 70’s were forecast for today and the high was 58.2. And now crashing.

Not bad 

 

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There was discussion about driveways.  This is what happens when you don't have asphalt /concrete this time of year. Mitch posted this. I was very happy when I went to asphalt. Too many days like this. 

20210301_160905.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There was discussion about driveways.  This is what happens when you don't have asphalt /concrete this time of year. Mitch posted this. I was very happy when I went to asphalt. Too many days like this. 

20210301_160905.jpg

Hah. With my background I have no idea what you're talking about lol 

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8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Hah. With my background I have no idea what you're talking about lol 

Dirt gravel driveways you can't get down to get all the snow off. It doesn't melt away like black top so it congeals, partially melts, and you end up with glare ice when it refreezes. I literally slid off my driveway while stopped once, plus forget about walking.

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There was discussion about driveways.  This is what happens when you don't have asphalt /concrete this time of year. Mitch posted this. I was very happy when I went to asphalt. Too many days like this. 

20210301_160905.jpg

Yeah...same deal here and the driveway is on the north side so it’s blocked from the sun until about this time of year. We finally got some dirt breaks today along the snowbank. 

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There was discussion about driveways.  This is what happens when you don't have asphalt /concrete this time of year. Mitch posted this. I was very happy when I went to asphalt. Too many days like this. 

20210301_160905.jpg

That's why they invented wood ashes.  :D

Of course, they might all blow away.  Our area is under a high wind warning for 5A-3P tomorrow, first HW warning I've seen for our zone since Oct. 2017.  Maybe the gennie gets a workout (and our 70' fir trees may get more than that.)

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In this day and age who in their right mind doesn’t have a paved driveway? Good Lord.

We live on a gravel road at the end of town maintenance.  Paving our driveway would be like putting lipstick on a pig.  (Expensive lipstick!)

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's why they invented wood ashes.  :D

Of course, they might all blow away.  Our area is under a high wind warning for 5A-3P tomorrow, first HW warning I've seen for our zone since Oct. 2017.  Maybe the gennie gets a workout (and our 70' fir trees may get more than that.)

Wind Advisory here, But it looks like spring.

IMG_5438.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In this day and age who in their right mind doesn’t have a paved driveway? Good Lord.

Not many in my hood, many have driveways over a quarter mile long. They use small crushed grey stone and roll it. You can see them here. Not everyone lives on small lots.

Screenshot_20210301-164623_Maps.jpg

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not many in my hood, many have driveways over a quarter mile long. They use small crushed grey stone and roll it. You can see them here. Not everyone lives on small lots.

Screenshot_20210301-164623_Maps.jpg

A lot use stone dust or reclaim asphalt.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wind Advisory here, But it looks like spring.

IMG_5438.jpg

Lots of blue sky opening during the past 10 minutes.  Drizzle ended enough earlier to limit rainbow potential.  Trees starting to sway a bit with initial CAA gusts, <20 mph.

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dirt gravel driveways you can't get down to get all the snow off. It doesn't melt away like black top so it congeals, partially melts, and you end up with glare ice when it refreezes. I literally slid off my driveway while stopped once, plus forget about walking.

I was on one today like that, close to falling on my head.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Lots of blue sky opening during the past 10 minutes.  Drizzle ended enough earlier to limit rainbow potential.  Trees starting to sway a bit with initial CAA gusts, <20 mph.

Winds still marginal here [email protected] mph.

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