Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Apps runner, sleetstorm to ZR here. Haven't really had ptype issues since Christmas torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nam being the nam still in its long range for Tuesdays event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Nam being the nam still in its long range for Tuesdays event. I would normally think that too, but the 18Z Rgem and GFS were very similar to what the NAM was showing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z NAM estimated sleet accumulation as a general reference for mixing line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I would normally think that too, but the 18Z Rgem and GFS were very similar to what the NAM was showing as well. You really are paranoid! Drop the mesos till we are within 36. And the 18z GFS and RGEM (image) looked nothing like the 0z NAM! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: NAM NAM rhymes with BAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3k gives roc buffalo a foot through hour 60. With about 12 hours more of snow to go on south shore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: 3k gives roc buffalo a foot through hour 60. With about 12 hours more of snow to go on south shore Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Guys...I'm not being ULTRA pessimistic or paranoid today. Gosh..... ALL winter there have been tendencies with pretty much every system. Ok...I guess I'll be all flowers and rainbows and say it's 100 percent going to snow.....even though we have seen systems over and over again shifts hundreds of miles many times this season! I AGREE this system is our BEST chance to see a nice snowfall almost area-wide, but I do have my cautions...especially because the models have not nailed anything down even within 12 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Guys...I'm not being ULTRA pessimistic or paranoid today. Gosh..... ALL winter there have been tendencies with pretty much every system. Ok...I guess I'll be all flowers and rainbows and say it's 100 percent going to snow.....even though we have seen systems over and over again shifts hundreds of miles many times this season! I AGREE this system is our BEST chance to see a nice snowfall almost area-wide, but I do have my cautions...especially because the models have not nailed anything down even within 12 hours. I’ll agree. There’s been a lot of movement on these storms right up to go time! I honestly didn’t see THATmuch of a NW jump coming! Wow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Guys...I'm not being ULTRA pessimistic or paranoid today. Gosh..... ALL winter there have been tendencies with pretty much every system. Ok...I guess I'll be all flowers and rainbows and say it's 100 percent going to snow.....even though we have seen systems over and over again shifts hundreds of miles many times this season! I AGREE this system is our BEST chance to see a nice snowfall almost area-wide, but I do have my cautions...especially because the models have not nailed anything down even within 12 hours. I agree 100%. My chances of a big snow are way way down currently. NW trend is real 9 out of 10 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. This is all I was saying earlier on the other thread. Yet again more NW on the new Nam run. Tonight's "event" is a no-show, as the precip is farther north than forecast. Still another 36 hours left for this Monday-Tuesday event to do the same. It's the NAM still outside its "zone", if it has one. Remain Calm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Oh my gosh. I. AM. FINE. Maybe I'll do it this way. I am fine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Now...IF this ends up somehow moving even more NW and the 'Cuse somehow gets screwed again...that's a different story. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 That's about a few dozen model runs in a row that have shown ~10" for ROC through Wednesday. What could go wrong? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This can’t cut much more. It’s crashing into the mother of cold air. Remain calm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 RGEM has me RIGHT on the taint line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Will make first call on totals after 00z runs. Will take all major models and average them. Not final call cause lake enhancement requires more meso models and not in range yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: That's about a few dozen model runs in a row that have shown ~10" for ROC through Wednesday. What could go wrong? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: How does that look compared to 18z? Looks absolutely beautiful from BUF to ROC to SYR corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 With the Icon, is ice depicted as rain (green) or blue (snow)? I would imagine the "snow" as a "frozen precipitation"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Maybe a touch nw. Could just be model noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: With the Icon, is ice depicted as rain (green) or blue (snow)? I would imagine the "snow" as a "frozen precipitation"? Ice is depicted as rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Ice is depicted as rain. Thanks. It's tough to determine where the low level cold air is on some of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Thanks. It's tough to determine where the low level cold air is on some of the runs. Yeah, warmest panel on the ICON 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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