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Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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44 minutes ago, RedSky said:

They be leaping off bridges in New England from a warm 18z euro run, yet it held the same here.

 

B-b-but the euro is the best model by far, how could it fold? 

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Just now, The Iceman said:

B-b-but the euro is the best model by far, how could it fold? 

As we showed you yesterday it is the best performing model we have. As we said yesterday it’s not perfect. Hence why we use skill scores to grade models. Not one model run. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

As we showed you yesterday it is the best performing model we have. As we said yesterday it’s not perfect. Hence why we use skill scores to grade models. Not one model run. 

It's done this all season long but continue to hug it tightly :)

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Just now, The Iceman said:

It's done this all season long but continue to hug it tightly :)

I dont hug any model. But it’s prudent to use the models based on their skill and ability. I don’t take the weather personally. If a storm comes in warmer I don’t get upset. There’s always another one to look forward to. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

I dont hug any model. But it’s prudent to use the models based on their skill and ability. I don’t take the weather personally. If a storm comes in warmer I don’t get upset. There’s always another one to look forward to. 

You were literally discounting every other model yesterday because of the euro but okay :lol:

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47 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:


d01c11f76269db042b3f2c4d21b9f472.jpg


.

Perfect!! Looks like 363 is the dividing line by me...I can hit it with a snowball from here.

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It never got as cold as predicted last night I dropped to 31, my lows tonight are around 31, but as Mt Holly explained after we loose the daytime effects and move into night time ice will start to accrual quickly I guess we'll see. Its so damn hard to make any weather related plans till the day of the storm anymore. 

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4 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

It never got as cold as predicted last night I dropped to 31, my lows tonight are around 31, but as Mt Holly explained after we loose the daytime effects and move into night time ice will start to accrual quickly I guess we'll see. Its so damn hard to make any weather related plans till the day of the storm anymore. 

Only made it to 33F here, 35F currently, so I'm pretty skeptical down south here. However the dewpoint is 24 F so the temp. could easily drop a couple of degrees with any meaningful precip. falling. I think this applies strongly up your way, especially after sunset. Gotta play it by ear, but don't discount the possibility of sig. freezing rain early tonight, at least from this distance time-wise.

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Looks like the NAM keeps the immediate Philly burbs frozen until midnight or so. Could be a little dicey on untreated surfaces, but no downed trees or powerlines.

32F/DP 23F

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Based on their new ice accumulation map, I'm surprised mt holly hasn't cancelled the wwa's and downgraded the ice storm warning. Seems pretty clear they won't verify now.

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48 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Based on their new ice accumulation map, I'm surprised mt holly hasn't cancelled the wwa's and downgraded the ice storm warning. Seems pretty clear they won't verify now.

Actual surface temps are still quite cold even if air temps (2M) are not.

EDIT - also, as noted below, dews are still pretty low

And then of course there is this from Mt. Holly:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued concern for significant icing across portions of eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through Tuesday.

After examining the latest global and hi-res model runs, no
significant changes were made to the forecast, with a slight warming
trend leading to slightly lower snow and ice totals. Nudged
temperatures up a touch with the early morning update. Some
scattered rain and mixed precip showers are moving across the
region, but this hasn`t amounted to much at this point. Expect
precip to gradually fill in as the morning progresses, though
the main event still arrives tonight.

One interesting observation has been a slight cold bias across much
of the guidance tonight, which is curious given the appreciable snow
pack across the entire region. Temperatures yesterday tended to also
climb a degree or two above model consensus. This bias was closely
taken into consideration with the latest deterministic model
forecasts. One major discrepancy is that the global models, namely
the CMC and GFS erode the CAD quite quickly tomorrow afternoon and
evening while the NAM, HRRR, and ARW keep the shallow cold air wedge
across the Lehigh Valley and NW New Jersey. I tend to side with this
given past performance in such events. The placement of the dominant
surface high to the north across Canada is not completely favorable
for persistent cold air advection down the lee side of the
Appalachians. Forecast soundings from some of these hi-res models
lead to me to suspect this wedge wont erode until later Monday night
into Tuesday morning for these areas, especially across the Poconos
and Sussex County, NJ.

Went with a highly blended approach with PoP and QPF grids but the
output seems quite reasonable and discussion with surrounding
neighbors increased confidence in the overall thinking. With that,
expect a gradual transition from sleet at the onset today to
freezing rain and then to plain rain from the I-95 corridor east.
Rain will gradually build northwest through the night Monday night
as the CAD erodes with stronger warm advection ahead of the surface
low. There appears that there will be two rounds of precip with the
first this morning and afternoon being the lighter of the two, and
confined mostly to areas west of I-95. A brief lull will see another
round of precip move into the area associated with the main surface
low and associated shortwave. This will be where the greatest icing
occurs as temps hold steady and we lose the solar component
overnight. The resultant ice and snow grids were lowered slightly to
account for the aforementioned details. Again, no headline changes
were made with the feeling that impacts continue to warrant the need
for a warning even if exact ice accumulations don`t completely reach
criteria.

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Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM / 6z GFS

Tonight: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, rain, snow, and freezing        rain in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, rain, and sleet likely after       midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind east around 5         mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)           mostly around an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.             Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.3 inches.          image.png.f5cc028059390d7cb4b4e42cbae7ecbf.png

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Off topic but imo that is pretty asinine reasoning for mt holly to keep the ice storm warning. What is the point of having criteria to meet for the ice storm/winter storm warning if it can be just be issued based on what they believe potential impacts will be? Either it will likely meet the warning criteria and an ice storm warning should be issued or it will likely fall short of that criteria, such as this case, and a winter weather advisory should be issued instead. What's the point of having accumulation criteria to meet otherwise? Or they should just redo their warnings and advisories to include "potential impacts" and scrap accumulation based criteria. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Off topic but imo that is pretty asinine reasoning for mt holly to keep the ice storm warning. What is the point of having criteria to meet for the ice storm/winter storm warning if it can be just be issued based on what they believe potential impacts will be? Either it will likely meet the warning criteria and an ice storm warning should be issued or it will likely fall short of that criteria, such as this case, and a winter weather advisory should be issued instead. What's the point of having accumulation criteria to meet otherwise? Or they should just redo their warnings and advisories to include "potential impacts" and scrap accumulation based criteria. 

 

 

If impacts look to be high but amounts may end up falling short of warning criteria, then the warning can be maintained (impact based warnings). This helps to keep messaging consistent given the high impact aspect. Now I will say that based on the latest forecast, ice amounts are no where near warning criteria for ice for some areas but a warning remains in effect. Changes could be coming through the afternoon. From a messaging standpoint for this storm, it does look odd that some places are under an ice storm warning while nearby areas are under a winter weather advisory with very similar ice amounts forecast. I can see some confusion about that. 

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15 minutes ago, MGorse said:

If impacts look to be high but amounts may end up falling short of warning criteria, then the warning can be maintained (impact based warnings). This helps to keep messaging consistent given the high impact aspect. Now I will say that based on the latest forecast, ice amounts are no where near warning criteria for ice for some areas but a warning remains in effect. Changes could be coming through the afternoon. From a messaging standpoint for this storm, it does look odd that some places are under an ice storm warning while nearby areas are under a winter weather advisory with very similar ice amounts forecast. I can see some confusion about that. 

That's Fair, TBH the way the forecasting has been this season with so many last minute shifts, you'd be changing warnings etc. every 4 hrs. 

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Models aside, it IS significant ice probably through midnight-2am LV and poconos. CAD is never modeled correctly, and with the snow pack even more. It’s been hanging around 29-30 up this way. Roadways won’t be an issue, it’s the power lines and trees. IMO they are the cold spots that will build up.

 

ultimately this warmer solution is also setting Thursday to be colder, so win win?

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2 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

That's Fair, TBH the way the forecasting has been this season with so many last minute shifts, you'd be changing warnings etc. every 4 hrs. 

Good point as we do not want the windshield wiper effect regarding amounts and headlines. 

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3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Models aside, it IS significant ice probably through midnight-2am LV and poconos. CAD is never modeled correctly, and with the snow pack even more. It’s been hanging around 29-30 up this way. Roadways won’t be an issue, it’s the power lines and trees. IMO they are the cold spots that will build up.

 

ultimately this warmer solution is also setting Thursday to be colder, so win win?

Yup as the models tend to erode the CAD to fast especially in northeast PA and northwest NJ. 

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25 minutes ago, MGorse said:

If impacts look to be high but amounts may end up falling short of warning criteria, then the warning can be maintained (impact based warnings). This helps to keep messaging consistent given the high impact aspect. Now I will say that based on the latest forecast, ice amounts are no where near warning criteria for ice for some areas but a warning remains in effect. Changes could be coming through the afternoon. From a messaging standpoint for this storm, it does look odd that some places are under an ice storm warning while nearby areas are under a winter weather advisory with very similar ice amounts forecast. I can see some confusion about that. 

Thanks for the clarifications Mike, appreciate you taking the time to explain! 

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