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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties.  There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county.

15z rap has a gfs like orientation, cook might be in play

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Still liking the possibility of double digits near the lake in the LOT cwa.  RegionRat may be in a favored spot but really anybody from around downtown Chicago over to Porter county is in the game.

Don't jinx me. You were pointing out that the forecast parameters are amongst the best we've seen this winter.  I certainly hope the parameters materialize and then we'll see if the band settles over one spot for awhile.  

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Interesting, CLE electing not to go with a WSW,  even with CWA's both upstream and downstream going with watches.  That tells me they think this is going to be an advisory level event.  Seems pretty conservative to me.  I have to think at least from I-71 east a watch would be justified.

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28 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Don't jinx me. You were pointing out that the forecast parameters are amongst the best we've seen this winter.  I certainly hope the parameters materialize and then we'll see if the band settles over one spot for awhile.  

I think northern Porter coming in with 6" last night and today is a good sign, because delta T this morning was not as high as it will be coming up.  One knock on this setup is the relatively modest inversion heights, but most other parameters check the box and it should be ripping fatties with the good co-location of omega in the dgz.

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8 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Interesting, CLE electing not to go with a WSW,  even with CWA's both upstream and downstream going with watches.  That tells me they think this is going to be an advisory level event.  Seems pretty conservative to me.  I have to think at least from I-71 east a watch would be justified.

Or they could be one of the worst forecast offices in the country. Even Toledo TV mets frequently take shots at them and the "I-75 wall"

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties.  There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county.

No watch with the afternoon package and no mention of entertaining one in the afd.  Do not pass go, do not collect $200

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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep digging upper level trough through the Central Plains states 
will gradually shift east and become negatively tilted slightly. 
This will result in surface low pressure over the delta region of 
the Mississippi River to move northeast toward West Virginia by 
Monday evening followed by a secondary stronger low pressure system. 
The first low will be in response to an upper level positive 
vorticity maximum sliding into the southern Great Lakes region and 
then the secondary low deepens as the upper trough becomes more 
negatively tilted.  Typically, deepening low tracks through the 
Panhandle of West Virginia are ideal tracks for our forecast area as 
this places the best frontogenetical forcing over our area.  Latest 
upper air model soundings suggest this forcing axis will remain just 
south of our area as the secondary low moves northeast through 
Virginia. Current thinking was to lower snow accumulations slightly 
due to the above comments and this is in line with the WPC guidance.
Will not be issuing any headlines at this time due to the long 
duration snow accumulation event and will not exceed the 8 inches in 
24 hour time frame.  However, potential for total snow accumulations 
up to 9 inches possible in the east with gradually lowering amounts 
to 4 inch totals in the Toledo to Findlay areas. 
 

From NWS Cleveland. Not exactly sure I buy this explanation. 

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