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WestTennWX

2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

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18 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

 

 

 


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So some private entity is going to say the HRRR is wrong,why would you even post what the HRRR shows five minutes later if you say it's wrong:axe:

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Just now, WestTennWX said:

Interesting stat out of Memphis concerning temps, the extent and duration of this Arctic mass is impressive to say the least

 

 

memphis.PNG

That’s a little bit ambiguous. Do they mean it will be the longest since the 40’s? Or that 4 days is the longest stretch since the 40’s? The latter would surprise me.

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2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That’s a little bit ambiguous. Do they mean it will be the longest since the 40’s? Or that 4 days is the longest stretch since the 40’s? The latter would surprise me.

I would assume they mean when all is said and done, the consecutive days below freezing will be the longest. Saturday is currently forecast to be 38, gotta wonder if we will make that with inches of snowpack likely still on the ground.

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9 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

It's rippin in parts of Memphis right now and none of it is shown on the HRRR or NAM.  Bonus snow!

what cam are you using?

 

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PAH Disco hinting at an excess of a foot where banding sets up-

 

National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

A major winter storm is taking aim on the area. The first round of
snow will be tonight in a zone of increasing low/mid trop
frontogenetical forcing positioned out ahead of the main upper trof,
that by 12z Monday should be over the central and southern Plains.
We may see an initial 1-3" of snow tonight (give or take). We have
incorporated the HREF closely with a consensus of deterministic
guidance for tonight and Monday (see below). We will be close to
Wind Chill Advisory conditions again tonight across portions of
southeast MO and southwest IL. We have addressed the bitter cold in
our current Winter Storm Warning that remains as is from 6 PM
Tonight through 6 AM Tuesday.

Monday, the main energy within the mid level trof comes up over top
of the region in the afternoon and evening. This will be the round
of greatest significance (snow rates, accumulations, impacts). The
overall trend seems a bit faster, so the lull is not expected to
last real long.

WPC banding probabilities increase notably with the main wave, with
some inference of instability and prominent snowfall rates. The HRRR
depicts this possibility as well. So for now we have storm total
accumulations 6 to 12". Given above average snow to liquid ratios
and this added concern, 12" may not be high enough should some of
these indicators pan out. But for now, we have headed the right
direction in our opinion.

The snow will taper off Monday evening and should be all but
completely over across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile region
after midnight.

In terms of messaging, the bitter cold remains a real concern with
this system, as does the potential for blowing snow with NNE winds
10 to 15 mph gusts to 20 mph or even slightly higher. Stay tuned for
updates and adjustments to snow amounts (if needed).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

The main focus later this week continues to be another potential
winter storm Wednesday into Thursday. This system is still four days
away, so many details remain to be ironed out. The 500 mb pattern
actually appears more complex than it did yesterday, mainly because
a northern stream 500 mb shortwave has entered the picture. This
northern stream shortwave will move down into the northern Plains
mid-week. There is some potential for this shortwave to shunt our
moist southern stream shortwave further south. This is reflected in
a majority of the model qpf fields, which show the heavy qpf
suppressed more to the south of the Ohio Valley than they did
yesterday. There is also less of a warm air intrusion, which results
in less mixing of wintry precip.

In a nutshell, the 12z models are still split into two camps. The
European solutions have trended even farther to the southeast,
taking the surface low northeast from the central Gulf Coast to
Georgia. The gfs ensemble mean is also further southeast, taking the
surface low across Alabama Thursday. The gfs consensus basically
places our region in the sweet spot for heavy snow, with heavy qpf
shown by the gfs ensemble mean over the Ohio Valley and se Missouri.
An elevated warm nose in the gfs guidance would result in mixing
with sleet or freezing rain se of the Ohio River.

Until the models resolve the influence of the northern stream
shortwave, the forecast will remain in flux. A forecast trend toward
drier and colder conditions is possible if the northern stream
becomes more dominant. The models at face value today do continue to
suggest the likelihood of a winter storm Wednesday into Thursday.
Otherwise, the main story on Tuesday into Wednesday will be the
continued bitterly cold wind chills.

Following the late week winter storm system, high pressure will pass
overhead on Friday. In the wake of the high, southwest winds are
expected to bring above freezing temps this weekend following the
extended winter blast. The ecmwf and gfs mos highs in the 50s at pah
Sunday look a little unrealistic given the snowcover, so the
forecast will be for highs in the 40s. Model ensemble means have
been in good agreement on a nearly zonal flow aloft this weekend.

&&
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1 hour ago, dwagner88 said:

That’s a little bit ambiguous. Do they mean it will be the longest since the 40’s? Or that 4 days is the longest stretch since the 40’s? The latter would surprise me.

 4 days isn't the longest since the 40s. At least in the official record books though they get changed occasionally in the name of quality control.  But it is a long stretch for Memphis. 

1985 for instance never had more than 2 days of highs below freezing in Memphis, which surprised me.

However 1951 had 6 consecutive days below freezing. 1966 had 4 and 1976 into 1977 had 4. 

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PAH Disco hinting at an excess of a foot where banding sets up-

 

National Weather Service Paducah KY238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021A major winter storm is taking aim on the area. The first round ofsnow will be tonight in a zone of increasing low/mid tropfrontogenetical forcing positioned out ahead of the main upper trof,that by 12z Monday should be over the central and southern Plains.We may see an initial 1-3" of snow tonight (give or take). We haveincorporated the HREF closely with a consensus of deterministicguidance for tonight and Monday (see below). We will be close toWind Chill Advisory conditions again tonight across portions ofsoutheast MO and southwest IL. We have addressed the bitter cold inour current Winter Storm Warning that remains as is from 6 PMTonight through 6 AM Tuesday.Monday, the main energy within the mid level trof comes up over topof the region in the afternoon and evening. This will be the roundof greatest significance (snow rates, accumulations, impacts). Theoverall trend seems a bit faster, so the lull is not expected tolast real long.WPC banding probabilities increase notably with the main wave, withsome inference of instability and prominent snowfall rates. The HRRRdepicts this possibility as well. So for now we have storm totalaccumulations 6 to 12". Given above average snow to liquid ratiosand this added concern, 12" may not be high enough should some ofthese indicators pan out. But for now, we have headed the rightdirection in our opinion.The snow will taper off Monday evening and should be all butcompletely over across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile regionafter midnight.In terms of messaging, the bitter cold remains a real concern withthis system, as does the potential for blowing snow with NNE winds10 to 15 mph gusts to 20 mph or even slightly higher. Stay tuned forupdates and adjustments to snow amounts (if needed)..LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021The main focus later this week continues to be another potentialwinter storm Wednesday into Thursday. This system is still four daysaway, so many details remain to be ironed out. The 500 mb patternactually appears more complex than it did yesterday, mainly becausea northern stream 500 mb shortwave has entered the picture. Thisnorthern stream shortwave will move down into the northern Plainsmid-week. There is some potential for this shortwave to shunt ourmoist southern stream shortwave further south. This is reflected ina majority of the model qpf fields, which show the heavy qpfsuppressed more to the south of the Ohio Valley than they didyesterday. There is also less of a warm air intrusion, which resultsin less mixing of wintry precip.In a nutshell, the 12z models are still split into two camps. TheEuropean solutions have trended even farther to the southeast,taking the surface low northeast from the central Gulf Coast toGeorgia. The gfs ensemble mean is also further southeast, taking thesurface low across Alabama Thursday. The gfs consensus basicallyplaces our region in the sweet spot for heavy snow, with heavy qpfshown by the gfs ensemble mean over the Ohio Valley and se Missouri.An elevated warm nose in the gfs guidance would result in mixingwith sleet or freezing rain se of the Ohio River.Until the models resolve the influence of the northern streamshortwave, the forecast will remain in flux. A forecast trend towarddrier and colder conditions is possible if the northern streambecomes more dominant. The models at face value today do continue tosuggest the likelihood of a winter storm Wednesday into Thursday.Otherwise, the main story on Tuesday into Wednesday will be thecontinued bitterly cold wind chills.Following the late week winter storm system, high pressure will passoverhead on Friday. In the wake of the high, southwest winds areexpected to bring above freezing temps this weekend following theextended winter blast. The ecmwf and gfs mos highs in the 50s at pahSunday look a little unrealistic given the snowcover, so theforecast will be for highs in the 40s. Model ensemble means havebeen in good agreement on a nearly zonal flow aloft this weekend.&&

Sounds like blizzard conditions with the wind factored in

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Never seen freezing fog causing power issues but here we are. 

fEDigf.md.jpg

Yikes.  We have a solid coating of ice also just not that extreme yet.

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Forecast continues to improve for Lincoln County, especially the southern half. I am 7 miles north of the AL line. Overnight, we are due periods of light rain and light freezing rain. Morning holds more freezing rain and then a switch to snow. Total precip overnight is less than originally forecast so I hope for a switch tomorrow morning quickly to snow. We might get out of this with the lights on, after all.

Of course, TV is telling us the most dramatic storyline. They need to scare people into staying home. But not me! I'm hunkered down.

Currently in southern Lincoln County 7 miles above Bama: 29 (high of 30); wind chill 24; winds NNE at 6; barometer 29.90 inHg. Forecast overnight low: 29. Showers commence at 8 p.m. followed by light freezing rain.

Forecast high tomorrow: 32. Freezing rain to snow. Total forecast accumulation: 1 inch. That's WAY down from 5 inches this morning!

BTW, has anyone forecast the coming baby boomlet in November, since this is Valentine's Day and tomorrow is an indoor, off work day for so many? I'd like to see that model! :D

Screen Shot 2021-02-14 at 4.46.49 PM.png

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4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


You are in probably one of the best places (or worst) for severe storms in Tennessee.

The  farm is perfectly located on top of Pea Ridge, a feature that's part of the extended Cumberland Plateau. We rarely see truly severe, destructive weather. It goes north or south. Coming from Fayetteville, you have to climb to get here. Coming from Huntsville, AL, you climb, too... it is just a lot more gradual from Huntsville.

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30 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Never seen freezing fog causing power issues but here we are. 

fEDigf.md.jpg

Wow, that’s pretty intense.  Hope the lights can come back on soon for all those affected.  I’m amazed the whole tree hasn’t come down yet.

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My family lives in West KY (Murray, Hardin, Benton). Dad just sent a text they just got an updated forecast for

8 - 12 inches. Some places may get 1 inch an hour . All of Western Ky should get at least 8 inches. Then there’s the next storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

So freaking jealous!!!!!

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Similar to John here but no power issues luckily. Temperature down to 27 after only topping out of at 29. If the temperatures continue to stay well below advertised like the last few days, tomorrow will be a nightmare here with ice. The grass is even slippery now and we haven't had any real precip other than sprinkles

 

MiDfm5.jpg

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Looks like NWS in Jackson, KY is not forecasting as much ice accumulation as before for Bell County. 

I live near the Bell/Clay line, and Clay is in the ice storm warning. Does anyone think I could see significant icing since I am so close to Clay?

Thanks for opinions in advance.

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3 hours ago, WestTennWX said:

Interesting stat out of Memphis concerning temps, the extent and duration of this Arctic mass is impressive to say the least

 

 

memphis.PNG

A generational event.

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FYI.... it’s around 33-34 In my area. Only made it to 36 and the high was supposed to be 42. Not worried as of now but I will say my DP has fallen off to around 29-30 degrees. It’s possible this might start as sleet or ZR in the northern valley.


.

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