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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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2 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I think some are skittish. Seems like it could still skirt south and east.

It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least. 
 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least. 
 

I said earlier I'd consider it a win if I saw 1-2" back this way and that it just had to suck me back in haha. I'm thinking the central counties' (NW of I-81) chance at seeing anything notable hinges on any interaction between the two shortwaves that can generate an area of snowfall further back.. something to the tune of what the 18z GFS tried to do. 

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It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least. 
 

I’m about 15 miles from the M/D line in York County. Thinking we could have a nice 3-6.
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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I said earlier I'd consider it a win if I saw 1-2" back this way and that it just had to suck me back in haha. I'm thinking the central counties' (NW of I-81) chance at seeing anything notable hinges on any interaction between the two shortwaves that can generate an area of snowfall further back.. something to the tune of what the 18z GFS tried to do. 

I agree. I think a general 1-4" NW of I-81 is the way to go with 4" chances obviously higher further to the SE. This is a SE LSV type storm. York/LNS/LanCo Hills are the ones that have the best chance to cash. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

PAZ035-036-056>059-063-062015-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0010.210207T0600Z-210207T1800Z/
Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport,
Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle
314 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow amounts are expected
  along and southeast of the I-81 corridor.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

PAZ064>066-062015-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.210207T0600Z-210207T1800Z/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
314 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Adams, York and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy snow rates exceeding 1
  inch per hour are possible early Sunday morning.
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I'm traveling to my inlaws in the Hudson Valley this morning. Needless to say, I'm not happy about missing this at home... Nothing better than morning snow and coffee. And eastern LanCo is looking good. Hoping they at least pick up a few inches up in Poughkeepsie. 

 

Good luck all! 

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This EPS & GEFS are sending a tremendous snow signal over the next 2 weeks.

The storm later this week and the pattern beyond look very interesting for our winter storm chances.

Usually I get excited seeing the 6 inch snow line near the LSV on these 2 week ensemble maps,  but these amounts are in double digits!

It all gets started tomorrow morning!

B4ACD51E-EFFF-4105-B28B-C76F4D154E57.png

961030BC-0E54-4819-8AC3-2B3ED9E89AF9.png

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12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys! Here's my first call map for the storm. Not everyone in here will be covered, but it shows the general idea!

81103873_2-6-21MAStormMap-FirstCall.thumb.PNG.83cfecd7f86975783c015031aba3244a.PNG

Geeez I should I guess actually pay attention to this system. I haven’t and just figure it was a light clipper-like thing throwing down an inch or two. 

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Just now, canderson said:

Geeez I should I guess actually pay attention to this system. I haven’t and just figure it was a light clipper-like thing throwing down an inch or two. 

Still my first call and I'm at work, so I'll do a fine tooth comb and have a Final Call later today. Might make some adjustments. But in either case, this is a storm where banding will be key. You get a few good waves and 4" is easy money for my PA brethren :)

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