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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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17 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Same here...any models showing that much snow?

Pretty much all guidance except the NAM (until 0z tonight) have been showing good front snows with varying degrees of mixing later in the event (Euro pretty much an all snow event back in our area). The new 0z NAM now joining the party with the bigger front end thump. So def not a fluke or anything, but a little early to be including accums like that in the grid forecasts considering how rapidly this current one went sideways the last few days. 

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From the 10:30PM area forecast discussion for Williamsport:

Strong llvl northerly ageostrophic flow and a howling 70-80 kt
southerly jet several KFT AGL will maintain the perfect setup
for a significant ice storm across the entire region between
I-78/81 and the RT220/I-80 corridor. Expect between 3-6 tenths
of an inch of ice by daybreak, which will undoubtedly cause down
numerous trees and some power outages, from limbs falling on
utility lines. This degree of ice equates to at least a 1 in
10-15 year ice storm here in Central PA, considering it`s
widespread nature and pure freezing rain (with little or no sleet
and snow at the onset or tail end)
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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Guess I’ll invest in this Thursday thing.  0Z GFS looks pretty awesome.  

The || GFS does as well. Both are mostly snow with a bit of late mix in the LSV on regular GFS while the Para-GFS never gets mix line above the mason-dixon.

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Starting to notice the ice on the trees some now. P-type is mainly freezing rain with temp floating 32ish. Do have a fairly stiff SSE breeze now, which may help mix temps up a degree or two (KAOO at 34ºF). The wind probably won't help matters on the ridges though, where the bigger ice accumulations likely will be.  

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Starting to notice the ice on the trees some now. P-type is mainly freezing rain with temp floating 32ish. Do have a fairly stiff SSE breeze now, which may help mix temps up a degree or two (KAOO at 34ºF). The wind probably won't help matters on the ridges though, where the bigger ice accumulations likely will be.  

Temp here has made it up to 34 now with rain with an occasional ping or two. I can see a solid glaze on the power lines.  With KIDI at 36 and KJST at 30 most likely most lower elevation places probably sitting at 32 or 33. Curious to see how many places got pure freezing rain.

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0z Euro and Euro ensemble check out for Thursday's event. Mostly all snow for everyone in here. Also while I"m at it might as well throw on the 0z WPC guidance blend. That only goes out to 72hr, so probably more snow to be had in the Sus Valley. 

0z Euro ensemble

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_48hr-3779200.thumb.png.76226209fa0a78a2edbee8b9056d4323.png

0z WPC guidance (50th percentile snowfall)

wpc-ne-wpc_snow_24hr_50pctl-3692800.thumb.png.59348635c3cd432d1a182a7402ec20d7.png

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tonight's even was a total joke for my area. even radar showed pink as in mix all we got was heavy rain forecast high was 32 got to 38 never went below 35 but yet still we have a wwa going on wtf. I mean you cant accurately forecast a even 12 hours out now? smh did any one in the lsv receive any wintry weather 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

0z Euro and Euro ensemble check out for Thursday's event. Mostly all snow for everyone in here. Also while I"m at it might as well throw on the 0z WPC guidance blend. That only goes out to 72hr, so probably more snow to be had in the Sus Valley. 

0z Euro ensemble

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_48hr-3779200.thumb.png.76226209fa0a78a2edbee8b9056d4323.png

0z WPC guidance (50th percentile snowfall)

wpc-ne-wpc_snow_24hr_50pctl-3692800.thumb.png.59348635c3cd432d1a182a7402ec20d7.png

The 0z Euro Op run was very nice with mostly snow for just about everyone, even at the height of the storm.

8A18529F-1BD1-49E9-AC9B-033FC7BCDC91.png

BB98D0BD-E82E-462D-A904-373CF3D67495.png

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tonight's even was a total joke for my area. even radar showed pink as in mix all we got was heavy rain forecast high was 32 got to 38 never went below 35 but yet still we have a wwa going on wtf. I mean you cant accurately forecast a even 12 hours out now? smh did any one in the lsv receive any wintry weather 

Every one of your posts is filled with whining. Come on, man! It could be last winter!
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Here is the latest Discussion & the Event snow maps from CTP as of this morning for the Thursday into Friday snow chance.

”The 1035 mb high pressure system responsible for fair weather on Wed will move northeastward into New England by Wed night, setting the stage for good cold air damming ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough originating in the southwestern US will round the base of a deep, longwave trough and provide broad vertical ascent to develop an East Coast cyclone Thu into early Fri. Models still differ on how the storm will impact central PA, particularly on how far north and west heavy precip will get. A blend of the guidance shows QPF ranging from 0.5 in the northwest to 0.75-1.00 in the southeast. Much of this looks to fall in the form of snow, given the aforementioned cold air damming. A west-east oriented band of fgen forcing showing up in some of the guidance suggests a northward propagating band of moderate to heavy snow is possible shortly after the onset of precip during the day Thu, but it is too early to say with confidence if this will happen. For now, went with a general 10:1 ratio of snow to QPF for most of the area, and a bit lower in the SE where the column is warmer and there is more potential for mixing. This translates to a general 5 to 8 inches inches of snow for a large swath of central PA, 3 to 6 inches in the NW where QPF is limited, and 3 to 6 inches in the SE where temps will be warmer. Most of the snow will fall between late Wed night and late Thu night.”

 

E91A8E3F-165A-4DD8-9644-72C736002835.png

A57F33C0-DE63-4AA6-9E78-4030A508298C.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the latest Discussion & the Event snow maps from CTP as of this morning for the Thursday into Friday snow chance.

”The 1035 mb high pressure system responsible for fair weather on Wed will move northeastward into New England by Wed night, setting the stage for good cold air damming ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough originating in the southwestern US will round the base of a deep, longwave trough and provide broad vertical ascent to develop an East Coast cyclone Thu into early Fri. Models still differ on how the storm will impact central PA, particularly on how far north and west heavy precip will get. A blend of the guidance shows QPF ranging from 0.5 in the northwest to 0.75-1.00 in the southeast. Much of this looks to fall in the form of snow, given the aforementioned cold air damming. A west-east oriented band of fgen forcing showing up in some of the guidance suggests a northward propagating band of moderate to heavy snow is possible shortly after the onset of precip during the day Thu, but it is too early to say with confidence if this will happen. For now, went with a general 10:1 ratio of snow to QPF for most of the area, and a bit lower in the SE where the column is warmer and there is more potential for mixing. This translates to a general 5 to 8 inches inches of snow for a large swath of central PA, 3 to 6 inches in the NW where QPF is limited, and 3 to 6 inches in the SE where temps will be warmer. Most of the snow will fall between late Wed night and late Thu night.”

 

 

 

Those 10% chance high ends seem pretty low down here.  I would think there is a 10% chance many here get a foot.  Probably not but still 10%.

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