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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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0z NAM def coming in colder vs 18 and 12z with the mixing portion of the Thursday storm. Very intense front end thump of snow as well. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

0z NAM def coming in colder vs 18 and 12z with the mixing portion of the Thursday storm. Very intense front end thump of snow as well. 

Yes, the 0z NAM took a big step towards every other available model for Thursday. 
Very nice front end thump despite only taking a step at this time. 
I’m looking forward to the rest of the 0z runs.

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Might as well put up a pic of the “ice board”. A little over a half inch of ice encased sleet. Ice accrual on trees isn’t too notable yet. 

16263C82-6E77-48D0-A8D1-0620B3C6A74F.thumb.jpeg.4eaa43bb13f9466127f2eac69f839d44.jpeg

 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

On a lighter note, CTP point and click FTW apparently with the 6-12" 48+ hrs out just thru Thursday daytime. Boy if only... lol. 

1571439439_ScreenShot2021-02-15at7_15_03PM.png.9c2c5a8662082a5630e0a2df8360e84c.png

Same here...any models showing that much snow?

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I am in my basement work shop now but as of 15 minutes ago its just been ZR.  The blacktop was good here but concrete in the shade is getting slick. Accretion on trees and bushes has been minimal so far but its looking a little heavier towards the tops of the trees.  Bty that was just a joke this morn fellows I,m not a wise ass when I am pissed, just done using kiddo emojis and memes  .

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17 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Same here...any models showing that much snow?

Pretty much all guidance except the NAM (until 0z tonight) have been showing good front snows with varying degrees of mixing later in the event (Euro pretty much an all snow event back in our area). The new 0z NAM now joining the party with the bigger front end thump. So def not a fluke or anything, but a little early to be including accums like that in the grid forecasts considering how rapidly this current one went sideways the last few days. 

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From the 10:30PM area forecast discussion for Williamsport:

Strong llvl northerly ageostrophic flow and a howling 70-80 kt
southerly jet several KFT AGL will maintain the perfect setup
for a significant ice storm across the entire region between
I-78/81 and the RT220/I-80 corridor. Expect between 3-6 tenths
of an inch of ice by daybreak, which will undoubtedly cause down
numerous trees and some power outages, from limbs falling on
utility lines. This degree of ice equates to at least a 1 in
10-15 year ice storm here in Central PA, considering it`s
widespread nature and pure freezing rain (with little or no sleet
and snow at the onset or tail end)

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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Guess I’ll invest in this Thursday thing.  0Z GFS looks pretty awesome.  

The || GFS does as well. Both are mostly snow with a bit of late mix in the LSV on regular GFS while the Para-GFS never gets mix line above the mason-dixon.

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Here in Carlisle at 11:22pm, moderate plain rain continues to fall.  I am up to 0.45" of rain thus far.  My temp has been holding just barely above freezing at 32.2 degrees.  Like what I'm hearing about Thursday and especially that the NAM is joining the snow train.

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Guys pray for Texas. A nuclear plant is down and they already can’t generate enough electricity with it online. 1.4 million are without power (and it’s growing hourly) and it’s less than 15 degrees in a huge part of the state. 

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28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The || GFS does as well. Both are mostly snow with a bit of late mix in the LSV on regular GFS while the Para-GFS never gets mix line above the mason-dixon.

The 0z GFS, Para & GEFS continued to escalate the Thursday into Friday for many of us!

 

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As soon as the heavier rain came in we shot up to 32. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we don't go up one or two more. I'm kind of doubting the whole half inch ice possibility that CTP had for my area.

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Starting to notice the ice on the trees some now. P-type is mainly freezing rain with temp floating 32ish. Do have a fairly stiff SSE breeze now, which may help mix temps up a degree or two (KAOO at 34ºF). The wind probably won't help matters on the ridges though, where the bigger ice accumulations likely will be.  

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Starting to notice the ice on the trees some now. P-type is mainly freezing rain with temp floating 32ish. Do have a fairly stiff SSE breeze now, which may help mix temps up a degree or two (KAOO at 34ºF). The wind probably won't help matters on the ridges though, where the bigger ice accumulations likely will be.  

Temp here has made it up to 34 now with rain with an occasional ping or two. I can see a solid glaze on the power lines.  With KIDI at 36 and KJST at 30 most likely most lower elevation places probably sitting at 32 or 33. Curious to see how many places got pure freezing rain.

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0z Euro and Euro ensemble check out for Thursday's event. Mostly all snow for everyone in here. Also while I"m at it might as well throw on the 0z WPC guidance blend. That only goes out to 72hr, so probably more snow to be had in the Sus Valley. 

0z Euro ensemble

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_48hr-3779200.thumb.png.76226209fa0a78a2edbee8b9056d4323.png

0z WPC guidance (50th percentile snowfall)

wpc-ne-wpc_snow_24hr_50pctl-3692800.thumb.png.59348635c3cd432d1a182a7402ec20d7.png

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