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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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Approaching 2 inches here in Marysville.
Steady snow continues.
Beautiful Winter morning!
It is even better knowing more snow is on the way this week!

Yep, what a weenie run on the GFS.


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What a great 12z GFS run for CTP for this week!

First, on Tuesday, there is a chance for 1 or 2 inches of snow, mostly north of the turnpike with a weak system.

Then the real fun begins Wednesday night with the start of the overrunning snow. The snow then continues at varying intensity until early Friday. This run keeps most of PA all snow for this event.

The snow map is just for this event.

 

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Picked up an 1" this morning. Just what they was calling for.

Looks like it is going to be a busy week.

Thanks to everyone giving their thoughts and posting maps...much appreciated!!

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Tuesday's potential light event seems like it may target central and/or northern PA more than the southern tier by the looks of most of this afternoon's guidance. That's looking like a 1-3" stripe of snow wherever it decides to throw down. 

Good to see the Euro backing down on bringing the ice into PA with that Thurs/Fri event for now. Seems like it could be a couple different surges of precip with that and a bit of an extended WAA precip phase before the eventual low comes up toward PA. Doesn't look like something that would deliver excessive snows but could be a real nice snowpack builder (moderate with a stripe of heavier totals). I"m not going to rule out potential mixing issues in parts of the region with this eventual system but the setup should favor mainly frozen. Lot's of cold available and an established snowpack lends some support to the PA favorable storm track. And we're not winding up a big storm with this so any WAA surge aloft would likely be limited. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

Lol noooo don’t say the S word!!

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now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm?  im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm.

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55 minutes ago, Ruin said:

now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm?  im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm.

Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

The 12z EPS gives the LSV some room to maneuver north or south for the Wednesday night to Friday am event. 
This snow map is just for this work week window through Friday evening.

 

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So many days and nights are supposed to have snow in the 7 day forecast for Williamsport. But it seems that each day or night will only have a little bit. Sort of a unusual forecast for us.

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The 0z GFS targets the southern half of PA this week!
The minor initial wave on Tuesday now brought a couple of inches of snow to the LSV this run.

Then the stronger overrunning wave Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon brought the best snow bullseye into the southern half of PA.

 

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The weaker early week wave on Tuesday has been steadily trending south the last few model run cycles. Southern PA now might have a chance at a couple of inches of snow on Tuesday. CTP has also been bumping up the percentage chance of snow in their forecast zones as well for Tuesday.

Then, the more significant wave arrives Wednesday night and lasts through Thursday.

This pattern is loaded with potential!

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