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madwx

February 2021 General Discussion

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7 hours ago, Chinook said:

My loops from storms this month. I decided to make a 30-frame GFS surface loop from the whole last week because it was such a big cold wave and a big snowstorm for NW Ohio and snowy for many other areas.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_12_19_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_15_2021_radar_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_500mb_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_850mb_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_30_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html

 

 

hfDo3CG.jpg

 

That's really cool that you created these.  Thank You.  

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Picked up 0.6" of powder overnight from the lake, wasn't really expecting it and there was a blob of 3-4" well NW of Detroit.  As soon as the snow moved out the sun moved in.

 

Now at 21.7" in Feb and 41.5" on the season. DTW picked up 0.4 which makes 20.7" in Feb and 40.2" on the season.

FB_IMG_1613839335359.jpg

FB_IMG_1613839370521.jpg

FB_IMG_1613839347675.jpg

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Someone is getting 50” in 24 hours here off a frozen lake 

97A1D3AB-DBC4-4123-8F0D-A729545F3B21.jpeg

I'm assuming the lake effect parameters must be pretty good to be able to overcome so much frozen water?

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm assuming the lake effect parameters must be pretty good to be able to overcome so much frozen water?

850 temps -14C or so delta T's decent  but  not extreme..it looks like there is a small ice free area with a decent fetch on the NE side of the lake

but this isn't a case with deltas 20-25 with a full open  fetch

looks like a small shortwave bringing moisture and there seems to be some type of convergence just SW of BUF with another band

this one will be studied for sure

 

Edit: now it looks like  Huron connection getting going with the leftovers crossing that small open fetch and recharging and converging with another small band hugging the south shore

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BUF

1041 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2021  

    NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

 

    LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE OVERACHIEVED OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK   THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE CROSSED THE   REGION WITH H85 TEMPS OF -14C. MANY REPORTS OVER 20 INCHES IN NARROW   AREA OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WITH A COUPLE REPORTS AROUND 30 INCHES.  

 

HIGH SLRS AND FOCUS OFF THE THE LIMITED BUT STILL VERY EFFECTIVE   OPEN WATERS OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE HELPED TREMENDOUSLY. LAKE EFFECT   OVER WAYNE INTO N. CAYUGA WAS STEADY BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THE   BAND OFF LAKE ERIE. AS THE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FORCING AND MOISTURE   IS JUST APPROACHING NOW, SEEING THIS LAKE EFFECT INCREASE AND THAT   SHOULD STAY THE CASE WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES INTO THIS EVENING.

 

  EXTENDED THE GOING WARNING THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LAKE   EFFECT WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING THOUGH WILL   BECOME MORE FOCUSED LIMITED IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING.  

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm assuming the lake effect parameters must be pretty good to be able to overcome so much frozen water?

Go check out this thread. The pictures are insane! I've been following lake effect for 20 years and have never seen anything like it. A friends plow just broke from too much snow.

image.png.ea157b4160bbf5e625d9709e92cc7ec5.png

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Delta T may not be great but the inversion around 700 mb on the BUF sounding is fairly respectable.  Still, it's impressive to see with so much ice on the lake.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Delta T may not be great but the inversion around 700 mb on the BUF sounding is fairly respectable.  Still, it's impressive to see with so much ice on the lake.

I didn't know it was meteorologically possible for something like this to happen.

t1.21050.1612.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I didn't know it was meteorologically possible for something like this to happen.

t1.21050.1612.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

I love satellite shots like that.  Narrow as that band may be its insane that it's dumping 3+ feet of snow with do little open water.  Even the little bit of Lake effect we have last night was not your typical fluff it was more like powder which made me think this was a product of good les parameters but not enough open water to generate the goods. 

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I love satellite shots like that.  Narrow as that band may be its insane that it's dumping 3+ feet of snow with do little open water.  Even the little bit of Lake effect we have last night was not your typical fluff it was more like powder which made me think this was a product of good les parameters but not enough open water to generate the goods. 

The Cocarahs report earlier this morning was 1" of QPF and 22" of snow. Its perfect accumulating giant puffy snowflakes.

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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I didn't know it was meteorologically possible for something like this to happen.

t1.21050.1612.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

Meanwhile I have dandelions in my yard. Amazing stretch of winter weather for the entire Midwest, parts of the South and Great Lakes region

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Going from the Hottest Summer on record with 30+ days in the 90's to this just goes to show how variable our Climate is here at the 45ish parallel.  

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Even though we’re well above freezing today, it’s amazing what cloud cover can do to preserve snowpack vs a sunny day that’s 10 degrees colder 

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Here is my collection of videos the last few days

The first one is my favorite, its so beautiful. The first 3 videos are from Friday Night, the last 3 from Saturday afternoon. We made a tunnel for my dog to run through as it was just too much snow. ^_^

 

 

 

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This last one shows the aftermath with peak totals from the event. Walking around my in laws house in the hills south of here

If you guys could also please sub to my YouTube channel. A long ways off, but if I get to 1000 subs I could live stream my chases!

 

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like the primary driver of this good pattern was a sharp -AO.

The -AO has been around since the start of Dec.

The main driver in the flip to cold sustained cold was the NAO, and then the PNA not being well + helped keep the active storm pattern going at the same time.

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36 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The -AO has been around since the start of Dec.

The main driver in the flip to cold sustained cold was the NAO, and then the PNA not being well + helped keep the active storm pattern going at the same time.

Did the EPO help as well? It seems the polar vortex had a large impact too. Was that due to SSW in January?

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ZZZZZZZZZZZ........
 

Monday
A slight chance of rain before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 32. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph.

Tuesday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 11 to 16 mph.

Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. South wind 7 to 10 mph.

Wednesday
A slight chance of rain after 11am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Not to mention the narrow temperature band for the majority of especially the final week of February.

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Did the EPO help as well? It seems the polar vortex had a large impact too. Was that due to SSW in January?

The EPO did flip negative in the latter part of January and that ridge spike at the end of the month into early February dislodged the PV lobe that got trapped under the NAO block. The SSW weakened the PV enough to prolong and strengthen the -AO/-NAO. The -NAO also played a big role in making the 2 events in the last week of January what they were vs much warmer/farther northwest outcomes.

 

 

 

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