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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics.  The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

GUYS!!!!     I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.    

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half a

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM ramped the QPF up again a bit after slacking some on the 06z run over in this area.

Sure did ... looks like .4 (avg) added back ... just off the top of my head. I never took that seriously though with that NAM .. it's like a dealing with a intelligent, 16 year-old daughter, unfortunately equally afflicted(ing ...as in people around her) with emotionally/insecurity loose canon neurosis with that thing -

But the grid (FOUS) was back to 1.83" from storm's main bulk, ... afterward, that 24 hours of glutting richest sets in... That stuff to me - btw - has the potential to come down a bit more appealing than the radar, but I almost want the wind to relax some for that too ..hm.  The last event had that look to it, too, as you may recall... but it didn't pan out so well. It looked to me like the lower soundng dried out too much in those intervening periods between the main stuff and the arrival of the beefier arctic desert.  I don't know if I see a drying source this time.  We'll see...

General reader:  Logan also has a sneaky warm low level to 35F ... but not until the ballast of said heaviest is in the books; has the impression that the CF probably wobbled NW for a couple hours around the end of bulk goodies.  Could see it being 27 F at BED at that tie... Otherwise 32F while ~ 10” falls in 6 hrs on the grid.   There occurs ~ 5” in the 6 hrs prior to that 10 ... and depending how much low level mixing in that end pesky interval determines how much of it us 3 or 4”, waffle batter or just cat paws for a brief stint ...

Winds are never greater than 40 deg angled ... NE 38 kt sustained at maximum!!!      We got us a bona fide mo’fuggass Nor'easta bitches

But that’s all out at Logan .. in the stupid harbor. With those grid numbers, the synoptic realism is probably pure snow out toward Cambridge ... and  Jer' dawg...  and beyond. I just have trouble with 1030+ mb height draped climo -ideal and all those closing centers SE of NYC -PVD line ... That's a compact CF period -

 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

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8 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah it's a really complex evolution... between a baroclinic zone that shifts further southeast courtesy of Monday's system, and leftover chunks of vorticity rotating around the broad trough... the end result is these cascading SLPs.... you get the sense a much bigger potential that Tip described is there, but it's just too discombobulated to materialize.

8 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Agree... when it's CMC / RGEM / HRPDS leading the way, you gotta remain skeptical. But I do think it's reasonable to expect that none of this will be sorted out on guidance until later Monday, even if the lead time is < 36 hours. Too much in flux with Monday's system underway.

Also as someone suggested earlier, this could be just a transition on guidance towards a more continuous event.

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go.  One can see that if the observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs;  like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead.  The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritimes, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic.  It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingling like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is paragraph needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "."  

The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low.

You what this reminds me of... ?  It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there.  Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen.  I mean c'mon ..that's what that is..  This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind warning with 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm!

Thanks for this Tip.

See discussion ~ 2am last night... we were raising the similar points, without the same expert understanding.

I wish I could remember the blizzard from ?2013 when guidance had a similar struggle for similar reasons... no single dominant shortwave within a great trough setup, and therefore a discombobulated solution on guidance... I remember only that I referred to the multiple spawned SLPs as mogwais popping up (reference to the movie Gremlins), but guidance eventually coalesced around a dominant shortwave with a blizzard.

I also remember a quick leadtime of guidance "transitioning" towards that eventual outcome.

Before I get jumped on, I'm not at all saying that a blizzard will verify tomorrow... just pointing out the evolution similarities in what we are seeing. I do also think that guidance may not "see" the possibility in relatively shorter lead time because of so much in flux today.

Fun times! 10 days ago seems like a different season.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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Just now, dryslot said:

I've been on the 6-10" bus all along, I don't think that's going to change here.

Definitely better to keep expectations in check and then be pleasantly surprised!

I'm kinda in the 12-15" mindset, depending on if the upslope aspect delivers.

I don't buy the 2.5" of liquid the Reginald has been offering for a couple days now, but maybe 1.25" is within reach.

It's going to rip here on the E wind for a while no matter what.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It still has a defined coastal low that comes more north up here.

The NAM just fizzles outside of SNE.

It is hard to know what is real and what isn't ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) within that inner chamber of this thing's busted ravioli low pressure.

I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. 

In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution.  Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buying," in front of x-y-z  ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ...

That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case.   The rest is what we call the rarer coup de etat winner model - sometimes I just want it to be an ICONic NAM-eramma ding dong model just to chap the asses of modeling conceit. lol

 

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Tiktock

Tiktock

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29 minutes ago, Dan said:

Glad to see someone else in Southeast NH.  Couple towns north of you in Brentwood.  Fingers crossed.  Got really screwed in the December storm.

Absolutely we did.  Bands danced around us the whole storm.  This time im hoping we get revenge

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It is hard to know what it real and what is ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) with that inner chamber of busted ravioli low pressure.

I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. 

In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution.  Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buy" x-y-z  ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ...

That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case.   The rest is what call a coup de etat

 

What should we be looking for down south to see which camp is right? The NAM and RGEM are very different once you get outside SNE.

This is like a mini-storm inside the storm. LOL

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