Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

[Roger Smith]

8-50" would be a good call at this point.

[Kevin Reilly]

Basically 20” PHL to TTN center of storm sitting like 30 miles SE of Cape May. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Seeing DT, Newman, etc getting nervous yet again reinforces nobody is sure.  Newman is rock solid 99% but even HE is unravelling

[MJO812]

[Newman]

Imagine 30 hours out from right now one model gives Philly 3.5", and another gives Philly 17.5".... well that's the difference between the American guidance NAM and GFS. Thirty. Hours. Out.

[Animal]

Gfs 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Bucks snow hole 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

8-50" would be a good call at this point.

Thanks for the incite very helpful 

[Newman]

Para-GFS shifted a bit west too

[Roger Smith]

GFS apparently just caved to the RGEM but then said, listen since you rented the room, I'll pay for an extra night.

Danger is more with mixing than total QPF if these coastal long-duration scenarios work out. Severe mixing may intrude into se NJ but what about PHL? Thinking maybe 20% loss to sleet? If these scenarios actually happen, if more like NAM/Euro then total QPF a lot lower anyway. 

Seriously, a little north of metro PHL could get buried 1888 style if these maps pan out. 

I live in a high snow area myself so you might catch up to me by Tuesday (snow on ground 32" here).

[Snowcane21]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Imagine 30 hours out from right now one model gives Philly 3.5", and another gives Philly 17.5".... well that's the difference between the American guidance NAM and GFS. Thirty. Hours. Out.

You state this as if each model is equal lol. You need to post a skill score as a caveat 

[RedSky]

Para is coming in long duration still snowing Tuesday evening 

[Newman]

2 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

You state this as if each model is equal lol. You need to post a skill score as a caveat 

Lol true, they both suck how about that

[MJO812]

Para

[RedSky]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GFS apparently just caved to the RGEM but then said, listen since you rented the room, I'll pay for an extra night.

Danger is more with mixing than total QPF if these coastal long-duration scenarios work out. Severe mixing may intrude into se NJ but what about PHL? Thinking maybe 20% loss to sleet? If these scenarios actually happen, if more like NAM/Euro then total QPF a lot lower anyway. 

Seriously, a little north of metro PHL could get buried 1888 style if these maps pan out. 

I live in a high snow area myself so you might catch up to me by Tuesday (snow on ground 32" here).

And para GFS just did an 1888 in the Pocono's 

[Violentweatherfan]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GFS apparently just caved to the RGEM but then said, listen since you rented the room, I'll pay for an extra night.

Danger is more with mixing than total QPF if these coastal long-duration scenarios work out. Severe mixing may intrude into se NJ but what about PHL? Thinking maybe 20% loss to sleet? If these scenarios actually happen, if more like NAM/Euro then total QPF a lot lower anyway. 

Seriously, a little north of metro PHL could get buried 1888 style if these maps pan out. 

I live in a high snow area myself so you might catch up to me by Tuesday (snow on ground 32" here).

How north of Philadelphia, how about Bucks County which is near KTTN Trenton or are you talking directly north and not northeast. 

[Bluescat1]

I like my location near TTN.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

Imagine 30 hours out from right now one model gives Philly 3.5", and another gives Philly 17.5".... well that's the difference between the American guidance NAM and GFS. Thirty. Hours. Out.

That’s fine.  I’m going with GFS Euro and Canadian over the NAM.... now the Nam has lower amounts too because of it showing sleet.  It’s a warner bias dynamical model my thinking is the Nam is showing tremendous uplift and convection along the Delaware River.  Instead of that being all sleet reality is 28 degrees thunder lightning and snow falling 2-3-4 inches an hour.  It’s the only thing I can think of.  

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

I have seen the former king euro etc. blow Miller B's even after the snow was flying more times then I can count, scars run deep

Anyone south of Bucks County can get shafted by Miller B's, sorry MontCo

[Kevin Reilly]

48 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GFS apparently just caved to the RGEM but then said, listen since you rented the room, I'll pay for an extra night.

Danger is more with mixing than total QPF if these coastal long-duration scenarios work out. Severe mixing may intrude into se NJ but what about PHL? Thinking maybe 20% loss to sleet? If these scenarios actually happen, if more like NAM/Euro then total QPF a lot lower anyway. 

Seriously, a little north of metro PHL could get buried 1888 style if these maps pan out. 

I live in a high snow area myself so you might catch up to me by Tuesday (snow on ground 32" here).

I’m not so sure even at that position the cold is locked in off a NNE wind funneling down the Delaware Valley.  Think we stay all snow at this point. 

[MJO812]

GFS shift east with the low for next weekend

[wkd]

Looks like the new low is forming off Virginia Beach

[Violentweatherfan]

15 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

I like my location near TTN.

 

KTTN does well with Miller B's enough for Bucks County to cash in on wrap around snow. 

[Violentweatherfan]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

GFS shift east with the low for next weekend

Start a new thread, maybe you'll bring fortune and luck. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

HDRPS says lemme dryslot Philly most of the day Monday but than pummel E PA from 4PM onward.

[Blue Dream]

18 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Anyone south of Bucks County can get shafted by Miller B's, sorry MontCo

Yeah we usually do okay with Miller Bs in Lower Bucks

[Roger Smith]

My "north of PHL" comment was probably fairly general, jackpots are most likely to be Pottstown to Easton but let's say something like 24" PHL, 27" Warminster, 30" Doylestown-Buckingham area, trending to max north of there 33-36 inches. And that would be a median of ranges about 50% to 150% if the coastal long-duration looping takes place. Even so, could see how 10-20 inches would actually verify, if some other scenario actually takes place. No crystal ball here, would say though the RGEM has remained pretty consistent run to run while slowly shifting max north. GFS seems to be changing its tune faster. 

[Moderately Unstable]

PSA: A few folks here yesterday made statements like..."under 6-8 WILL NOT happen". Remember not to predict ultimatiums before an event occurs. Weather gods don't like hubris.

Mt. Holly is not going w/NAM. If they were, they'd have to majorly cut those totals particularly around Philly. They're just not going into rgem land. They seem to be splitting the difference. Not very weenieish, does seem logical though. 

The models all show good qpf in Philly and surroundings. The differential in the snow amounts is mostly differences in how much warm nose pushes in and hence how much mixing occurs. My exp is that given the cold air that's been in place, and the high precip rates expected due to the rapid deepening low, you'll get the typical evap cooling effect where the heavy rates keep the column at freezing so long as precip is sufficiently robust. The lull period tnght tmrw am is where the risk is as has been stated. Heaviest rates, 1-2" hr are really only progged for a short time on any of the models, and it's right after precip ramps back up. Some models show that period being sleet for many of us; that cuts the totals. Others keep it all snow. That will be the difference for the corridor though btwn a 6-8-12-15 storm total. Remember that if we got 2" thundersnow type rates for several hours, we'd be talking plural feet in the corridor, not 10ish inches over 3 days. *Most* of this event is clearly NOT heavy snow. So, don't panic if things don't work out exactly as the models project. Expect that they won't be perfect. One thing they all show is that this system is with us for awhile and should produce some snow most of that time. By Tuesday pm, we will probably add up to what this forum expects, but, expect a lot of panic and concern from people here tonight and Monday, beyond the lull..just bc I think people are expecting a major 2"+ hr rate situation and again, outside a few hour window, this is a low and slow burn. I also think based on what I'm seeing live that the models may be underdoing the overrunning totals a bit, and that may also help us get to expected totals. We're going to be fine, folks.

[Violentweatherfan]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

My "north of PHL" comment was probably fairly general, jackpots are most likely to be Pottstown to Easton but let's say something like 24" PHL, 27" Warminster, 30" Doylestown-Buckingham area, trending to max north of there 33-36 inches. And that would be a median of ranges about 50% to 150% if the coastal long-duration looping takes place. Even so, could see how 10-20 inches would actually verify, if some other scenario actually takes place. No crystal ball here, would say though the RGEM has remained pretty consistent run to run while slowly shifting max north. GFS seems to be changing its tune faster. 

Thanks Roger, really appreciate your time spent here in this thread. 

[Violentweatherfan]

6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

PSA: A few folks here yesterday made statements like..."under 6-8 WILL NOT happen". Remember not to predict ultimatiums before an event occurs. Weather gods don't like hubris.

Mt. Holly is not going w/NAM. If they were, they'd have to majorly cut those totals particularly around Philly. They're just not going into rgem land. They seem to be splitting the difference. Not very weenieish, does seem logical though. 

The models all show good qpf in Philly and surroundings. The differential in the snow amounts is mostly differences in how much warm nose pushes in and hence how much mixing occurs. My exp is that given the cold air that's been in place, and the high precip rates expected due to the rapid deepening low, you'll get the typical evap cooling effect where the heavy rates keep the column at freezing so long as precip is sufficiently robust. The lull period tnght tmrw am is where the risk is as has been stated. Heaviest rates, 1-2" hr are really only progged for a short time on any of the models, and it's right after precip ramps back up. Some models show that period being sleet for many of us; that cuts the totals. Others keep it all snow. That will be the difference for the corridor though btwn a 6-8-12-15 storm total. Remember that if we got 2" thundersnow type rates for several hours, we'd be talking plural feet in the corridor, not 10ish inches over 3 days. *Most* of this event is clearly NOT heavy snow. So, don't panic if things don't work out exactly as the models project. Expect that they won't be perfect. One thing they all show is that this system is with us for awhile and should produce some snow most of that time. By Tuesday pm, we will probably add up to what this forum expects, but, expect a lot of panic and concern from people here tonight and Monday, beyond the lull..just bc I think people are expecting a major 2"+ hr rate situation and again, outside a few hour window, this is a low and slow burn. I also think based on what I'm seeing live that the models may be underdoing the overrunning totals a bit, and that may also help us get to expected totals. We're going to be fine, folks.

Paragraphs would make this an easier read.