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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just came back from my 2nd covid 19 vacc shot (hooray!)....is this a side affect? Am I hallucinating or is this happening? :mapsnow:

My second shot is Tuesday morning (yes, work in Healthcare now). Needless to say, I'm probably the only one rooting for a slightly shorter duration, just to get the roads clear for Tuesday AM.

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Not to throw too much caution on the snow parade here....but the EURO 12z operational was about the snowiest member (so not buying that) - the ENS mean looks more realistic. To caution further look at that likelihood of 12" or more.....just saying folks....not a slam dunk at all for a major snow....significant 6" or greater I can see that.

image.png.f66d06f10cf7fbe7f2a130c8050e0d15.pngimage.thumb.png.3541b9b1493f620fe8c5116cabee5979.png

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7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Not to throw too much caution on the snow parade here....but the EURO 12z operational was about the snowiest member (so not buying that) - the ENS mean looks more realistic. To caution further look at that likelihood of 12" or more.....just saying folks....not a slam dunk at all for a major snow....significant 6" or greater I can see that.

image.png.f66d06f10cf7fbe7f2a130c8050e0d15.pngimage.thumb.png.3541b9b1493f620fe8c5116cabee5979.png

8 inch mean isn't anything to scoff at... but honestly what worries me is it seems to be to split camps to get to that 8 inch mean. one camp in the 1-3/2-4" southern miss or scraper while the other half is 12-16" wham bam thank you mams. Have to hope the OP half are correct. Seems to be pretty boom or bust around here but right now with the 3 major players leaning boom, I lean towards that end of guidance right now as well. I don't see this as a 4-8" type storm imo. However there is still time for this to trend towards a nothing burger and that worries me. Let's get through tonight and tomorrow before breaking out the TD celebrations but I like where we stand right now.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

8 inch mean isn't anything to scoff at... but honestly what worries me is it seems to be to split camps to get to that 8 inch mean. one camp in the 1-3/2-4" southern miss or scraper while the other half is 12-16" wham bam thank you mams. Have to hope the OP half are correct. Seems to be pretty boom or bust around here but right now with the 3 major players leaning boom, I lean towards that end of guidance right now as well. I don't see this as a 4-8" type storm imo. However there is still time for this to trend towards a nothing burger and that worries me. Let's get through tonight and tomorrow before breaking out the TD celebrations but I like where we stand right now.

Yep, nothing etched in stone and alot of it is going to come down to WAA thump, pivot snows, and deformation banding. CMC and Euro ops are hellbent on those 3 factors being rather close to or right over the region.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Notable changes N of Lake Ontario on the NAM which presses the confluence and entire structure to the South. 

Its really not all that different in the end as far as location of the primary and coastal.  Later frames would still give us a big hit Id say

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Just now, hazwoper said:

Its really not all that different in the end as far as location of the primary and coastal.  Later frames would still give us a big hit Id say

Probably. But something to watch. If that piece keeps showing up stronger and keeps affecting the confluence, it will eventually have negative implications. But alas tis the NAM at range (skims the weenie handbook furiously to find...page 871 chapter 69 section 7 clause f)

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