Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[sferic]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

EPS is lovely. 

Picture?

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, sferic said:

Picture?

Check upstate NY thread. @BGM Blizzard just posted individuals.

[jm1220]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Check upstate NY thread. @BGM Blizzard just posted individuals.

Or check the Central PA thread. Essentially best case scenario. Probs of 3", 6" are also there. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I totally agree, Nemo from Feb 2013 could have been 24" in Long Beach but we wasted 3 hours to sleet when northern Nassau/Suffolk was pounding so it definitely happens, but there's no "the big ones mix" rule anywhere. 1/3/18 was all snow down to Ocean City MD. It's about the low tracks and cold air availability. 

Yes as a matter of fact in our biggest storms (depends on how you define them, but let's go with 12 inches plus) are much more likely not to mix.

There are some interesting cases though....March 1993 we changed to rain but JFK had as much or more snow as the other city stations.

Feb 1994 (second storm), same thing, JFK mixed but ended up with more total snow.

Jan 1996....heard reports that JFK mixed for a brief time but personally I did not see any mixing and still had over 20 and about the same as NYC.

 

So for some cases, you could mix or changeover and still get the most snow in the local area.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

My favorites 2.9.69 ( Lindsey storm)

Blizzard Feb 1975 ( yes sleet mixed in while I was in Brooklyn)

February 1983 was a memorable one too

 

In the early 2000.s Blizzards became so commonm place

Feb 1983 was my first snowstorm on Long Island and I waited for the next one like that for 13 years.  Feb 1983 happened when I was in 4th grade,  Jan 1996 happened when I was in grad school......longest 13 years of my life and of course when you're a kid 13 years seems to pass a hell of a lot slower than it does when you're in your 30s and 40s lol.

 

 

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Feb 1983 was my first snowstorm on Long Island and I waited for the next one like that for 13 years.  Feb 1983 happened when I was in 4th grade,  Jan 1996 happened when I was in grad school......longest 13 years of my life and of course when you're a kid 13 years seems to pass a hell of a lot slower than it does when you're in your 30s and 40s lol.

 

 

The best winter for me ever was living in Brooklyn was the winter of 1966-67 no blizzards but plenty of stoms. 8 years old listening on my AM radio..great memories

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes as a matter of fact in our biggest storms (depends on how you define them, but let's go with 12 inches plus) are much more likely not to mix.

There are some interesting cases though....March 1993 we changed to rain but JFK had as much or more snow as the other city stations.

Feb 1994 (second storm), same thing, JFK mixed but ended up with more total snow.

Jan 1996....heard reports that JFK mixed for a brief time but personally I did not see any mixing and still had over 20 and about the same as NYC.

 

So for some cases, you could mix or changeover and still get the most snow in the local area.

Before Jan 1996 I have a spotty memory (was born in 1987). I remember the late 12/95 storm mixing but being a good event, Mar 1993 having icebergs as there was flooding everywhere in Long Beach, 1993-94 being cold/snowy but not many specifics. The 1/96 blizzard was my first real snap into place memory of a storm. And then I was hooked lol. Don't remember that mixing either. 

[nycwinter]

i remeber the late 1970;s snowstorms in the city. so much snow fell they had to pile it in one location  i remember as a a kid i would climb one big snow pile and slide on down

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Before Jan 1996 I have a spotty memory (was born in 1987). I remember the late 12/95 storm mixing but being a good event, Mar 1993 having icebergs as there was flooding everywhere in Long Beach, 1993-94 being cold/snowy but not many specifics. The 1/96 blizzard was my first real snap into place memory of a storm. And then I was hooked lol. Don't remember that mixing either. 

biggest thing about 12/95 was that LGA got 14" and NYC only got 8"  JFK had 7" even with the mixing and a plane slid off the runway and right into Jamaica Bay.  It went from snow to mix/rain and then back to snow on the second day and that's when the accident happened.  It kicked off two weeks of severe cold that peaked around the time of the big Jan 1996 blizzard.  It was so cold that even here on the south shore the snow and ice cover persisted throughout the entire holiday season.  and then you probably remember all the flooding (included a supermarket collapse in Massapequa) and severe wx that happened after that (a week or two later) with temps in the upper 60s and then back to snow and cold at the end of Jan which then persisted through Feb, March and early April!  That early April storm was one of my favorites, watched the Yankee home opener during it and 5 inches fell here.

1993-94 had two storms every week for the entire winter, lots of mixed storms one big ice storm and two nice snowstorms including one with a ton of thundersnow and 2-4 inch per hour rates in the middle of the day and we ran out of salt lol.  Multiple lows below 0 in two arctic outbreaks and one really weird SE'er where it went from below 0 to mid 50s with 50 mph gusts within 24 hours lol.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

The best winter for me ever was living in Brooklyn was the winter of 1966-67 no blizzards but plenty of stoms. 8 years old listening on my AM radio..great memories

I would have loved to be alive then, going from the historic 1966 summer to the historic 1966-67 winter, Christmas snowstorm and then lots of snow and cold in February and March.

[sferic]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I would have loved to be alive then, going from the historic 1966 summer to the historic 1966-67 winter, Christmas snowstorm and then lots of snow and cold in February and March.

Best childhood memories living in an apartment building and watching it. And as a kid 8 inches feels like 16 inches to an adult. Magical winter

[LibertyBell]

Just now, sferic said:

Best childhood memories living in an apartment building and watching it. And as a kid 8 inches feels like 16 inches to an adult. Magical winter

Indeed, even 4 inches felt like a lot back then!

 

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I would have loved to be alive then, going from the historic 1966 summer to the historic 1966-67 winter, Christmas snowstorm and then lots of snow and cold in February and March.

The stretch of 2000-01 to 2017-18 will likely be an all time great stretch of any of our lives despite the occasional 2001-02, 2011-12 bummers. When has the last average been 30" at Central Park for a decade? Uncle W? 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The stretch of 2000-01 to 2017-18 will likely be an all time great stretch of any of our lives despite the occasional 2001-02, 2011-12 bummers. When has the last average been 30" at Central Park for a decade? Uncle W? 

I think someone said it was back in the 60s, but we actually got really close to a 30.0 average over 30 years and the last time that happened was back in the late 1800s!  A strong argument can be made that our 30 year average was actually over 30 inches with how NYC does with snowfall measurements.

 

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Feb 1983 was my first snowstorm on Long Island and I waited for the next one like that for 13 years.  Feb 1983 happened when I was in 4th grade,  Jan 1996 happened when I was in grad school......longest 13 years of my life and of course when you're a kid 13 years seems to pass a hell of a lot slower than it does when you're in your 30s and 40s lol.

 

 

What about Jan 87? Was that just a NJ thing? Not a huge depth, but one wicked storm.....

[sferic]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I think someone said it was back in the 60s, but we actually got really close to a 30.0 average over 30 years and the last time that happened was back in the late 1800s!  A strong argument can be made that our 30 year average was actually over 30 inches with how NYC does with snowfall measurements.

I would love to know wild weather which occured 500 years ago, probably some staggering storms we couldn't even imagine. What fascinated me too is when some of the great lakes in late summer began freezing over

 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

biggest thing about 12/95 was that LGA got 14" and NYC only got 8"  JFK had 7" even with the mixing and a plane slid off the runway and right into Jamaica Bay.  It went from snow to mix/rain and then back to snow on the second day and that's when the accident happened.  It kicked off two weeks of severe cold that peaked around the time of the big Jan 1996 blizzard.  It was so cold that even here on the south shore the snow and ice cover persisted throughout the entire holiday season.  and then you probably remember all the flooding (included a supermarket collapse in Massapequa) and severe wx that happened after that (a week or two later) with temps in the upper 60s and then back to snow and cold at the end of Jan which then persisted through Feb, March and early April!  That early April storm was one of my favorites, watched the Yankee home opener during it and 5 inches fell here.

1993-94 had two storms every week for the entire winter, lots of mixed storms one big ice storm and two nice snowstorms including one with a ton of thundersnow and 2-4 inch per hour rates in the middle of the day and we ran out of salt lol.  Multiple lows below 0 in two arctic outbreaks and one really weird SE'er where it went from below 0 to mid 50s with 50 mph gusts within 24 hours lol.

 

 

There hasn't been a winter as brutal as 94 in my lifetime; the last hurrah that winter was a wicked sleet fest of 4-6 inches in March that had such winds I thought the sleet would break the windows.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

There hasn't been a winter as brutal as 94 in my lifetime; the last hurrah that winter was a wicked sleet fest of 4-6 inches in March that had such winds I thought the sleet would break the windows.

I remember that- it was snow here.  That was such an onslaught of storms from December thru March never experienced by me before.

 

[sferic]

Just curious, who is on a tablet vs a smartphone versus a PC to view this stuff?

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What about Jan 87? Was that just a NJ thing? Not a huge depth, but one wicked storm.....

that was amazing too, my biggest memory of that storm is coming home from school and both my parents were at work and my door wouldn't open, the lock was frozen or stuck or something.  I waited for my mother to come home and by then it had already started snowing and I was just sitting there freezing in the snow.  She tried to open the door and she couldn't open it either lol so we both sat there for awhile until family friends got home and then we went to stay with them.  We didn't finally get into our house until around 6 PM when my dad got home and he was able to open the door!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Just curious, who is on a tablet vs a smartphone versus a PC to view this stuff?

PC with two screens lol....just saw the Euro and it has an interesting output....20-24 inches both NW of here in the Poconos and just south of here in Monmouth County (of course!) with "only" a foot across western and central Long Island.  If the Poconos gets 2 feet you're bound to get good snows up there too.

 

[sferic]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

PC with two screens lol....just saw the Euro and it has an interesting output....20-24 inches both NW of here in the Poconos and just south of here in Monmouth County (of course!) with "only" a foot across western and central Long Island.  If the Poconos gets 2 feet you're bound to get good snows up there too.

 

2 24  inch screens here too , 1 each for our favorite weather boards

 

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i remeber the late 1970;s snowstorms in the city. so much snow fell they had to pile it in one location  i remember as a a kid i would climb one big snow pile and slide on down

And yet that big storm, the biggest I had ever seen, was modest compared to what we saw from 1996 onward...it was about 17 inches; I was in 9th grade, Catholic school, still had a few pairs of plaid pants, with a flare....1977. By 1980 no one would be caught dead wearing plaid, platforms or flares.....or leisure suits....

[LibertyBell]

Just now, sferic said:

2 24  inch screens here too , 1 each for our favorite weather boards

 

yes!  just checked euro again it has 12-15 inches for your area, same as what it has for NYC-Long Island lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

And yet that big storm, the biggest I had ever seen, was modest compared to what we saw from 1996 onward...it was about 17 inches; I was in 9th grade, Catholic school, still had a few pairs of plaid pants, with a flare....1977. By 1980 no one would be caught dead wearing plaid, platforms or flares.....or leisure suits....

1977-78 was like an early version of the modern years.  Funny thing that in 1977-78 it was a huge deal to get two double digit snowstorms (both were blizzards too.)  1960-61 had three, but I cant think of any others from that previous era with multiple double digit events.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I blame the dolts in the media who seem to have "north and west" plastered to their foreheads and then get surprised when eastern or northern Long Island jackpots.  I wonder if anyone has ever done a statistical analysis to figure out what percentage jackpots in our region on an average yearly basis.  I'd guess Long Island jackpots on average about one third of the time.

Now if you want to talk about a region that rarely jackpots on Long Island it'd be the south shore.  Probably even less than the Jersey Coast does.  I'd guess the south shore of Long Island jackpots 10% of the time in big storms and those are in mostly storms that occur in moderate or strong el ninos (examples:  Feb 1983, PD2, Jan 2016).  and yup none of the ones you listed mixed here.

 

 

Not sure what the actual jackpot percentage for LI would be, but it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison to the rest of the region due to the size of LI.  What other part of the region stretches nearly 120 miles as the crow flies from end to end? 

Fun stats (all mileages "as the crow flies"):

• From the Brooklyn side of the Verrazano Narrows Bridge to Montauk Point, 119 miles
• Center City, Philly to Central Park, 88 miles
• Central Park to Montauk Point 113 miles
• Montauk Point to the Boston Common, 97 miles

Also max extent of LI from south to north is a 40 mile difference (i.e, Long Beach vs Orient Point, which are at about the same lattitudes as Iselin, NJ and New City, NY respectively).  Point is, even going with the political LI rather than geographical (I'm always happy to drop Brooklyn and Queens from the designation), it probably covers as much linear space as anywhere in the rest of the sub-forum combined.

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, sferic said:

Just curious, who is on a tablet vs a smartphone versus a PC to view this stuff?

Ham radio.

[sferic]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes!  just checked euro again it has 12-15 inches for your area, same as what it has for NYC-Long Island lol

6z nam rolling

[NorthShoreWx]

46 minutes ago, sferic said:

The best winter for me ever was living in Brooklyn was the winter of 1966-67 no blizzards but plenty of stoms. 8 years old listening on my AM radio..great memories

Memory jogger and a great video from the February 1967 blizzard (a well know KU storm): 

PS I won't be offended if this gets moved to memory lane. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Not sure what the actual jackpot percentage for LI would be, but it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison to the rest of the region due to the size of LI.  What other part of the region stretches nearly 120 miles as the crow flies from end to end? 

Fun stats (all mileages "as the crow flies"):

• From the Brooklyn side of the Verrazano Narrows Bridge to Montauk Point, 119 miles
• Center City, Philly to Central Park, 88 miles
• Central Park to Montauk Point 113 miles
• Montauk Point to the Boston Common, 97 miles

Also max extent of LI from south to north is a 40 mile difference (i.e, Long Beach vs Orient Point, which are at about the same lattitudes as Iselin, NJ and New City, NY respectively).  Point is, even going with the political LI rather than geographical (I'm always happy to drop Brooklyn and Queens from the designation), it probably covers as much linear space as anywhere in the rest of the sub-forum combined.

So true Ed!  Could you imagine having a 120 mile "super marathon" from one end of the island to the other?!

I wonder if we could divide the entire region into smaller groupings based on "official" reporting locations and then see which area jackpots in what percentage based on that....however we then run into the problem of their being no airports on the north shore so we have to look at co-op records and  they dont go that far back.  For the sake of simplicity...maybe we could do something like this....let JFK represent the south shore of Nassau County, LGA represent the north shore of Nassau County, Islip represents center island, FOK represents the south shore of Suffolk County and the co-op at Mt Sinai represents the north shore of Suffolk County.  Then we can add NYC for the city of course and EWR to represent NE NJ.  MJX to represent the Jersey Coast.  MMU represents near NW NJ and FWN represents far NW NJ.  For the Hudson Valley we could use a combo of Poughkeepsie, Newburg, White Plains, Montgomery and Monticello and Bridgeport and New Haven for the CT coast.  Add in Danbury if you also want an interior Western CT representative.  This gives us a total of 13 subregions.