Bostonseminole Posted January 25 Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
78Blizzard Posted January 25 That Feb 1 system just sits off PVC for 12 hours, and it was slow to get there from ACY. Crushed. But all downhill from here, lol. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
78Blizzard Posted January 25 I guess everyone has about had it with 8 day progs, lol. Nobody here. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted January 25 CMC crushes you guys too. Slow moving ULL that just sits and spins from the effects of the block. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted January 25 It’s an interesting setup. The H5 reminds me of a progression you’d see in March 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
78Blizzard Posted January 25 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: It’s an interesting setup. The H5 reminds me of a progression you’d see in March Those come out much faster than TT or Pivotal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted January 25 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Those come out much faster than TT or Pivotal. Yeah, it’s been out for a while, storm vista, like 20 bucks a month. Graphics aren’t the best, but the interface is good and loads fast as hell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Henry's Weather Posted January 25 pretty nice 0z suite so far. slow movers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 It's like Feb '69 displaced southward. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Henry's Weather Posted January 25 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's like Feb '69 displaced southward. days and days Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mreaves Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's like Feb '69 displaced southward. Dryslot just jumped into the Kennebec. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted January 25 Ukie at 144, can’t complain about this look . Feel like that would keep rotating east under the hp Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
78Blizzard Posted January 25 This is LR, but look at the difference at hr276 at h5 between the GFS and the Para: 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
78Blizzard Posted January 25 LOL @ the GFS. Hour 180 shows 4"/hr rate here for 3 hours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bostonseminole Posted January 25 just looked at the EURO, toasty for allot folks inside 495, I would think the track would be further off the coast like EPS shows. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: just looked at the EURO, toasty for allot folks inside 495, I would think the track would be further off the coast like EPS shows. I think alot of folks would go into shit-flip mode if that one found a way to rain. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: just looked at the EURO, toasty for allot folks inside 495, I would think the track would be further off the coast like EPS shows. Right. Most guidance shows a R/S line for coastal folks. Maybe Ray will finally appreciate his location in Methuen? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tamarack Posted January 25 8 hours ago, mreaves said: Dryslot just jumped into the Kennebec. Androscoggin's a lot closer, but yes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Right. Most guidance shows a R/S line for coastal folks. Maybe Ray will finally appreciate his location in Methuen? Heh....I haven't looked at anything, but usually its more crucial to be WEST of I 495, which I am not. Edit: That is primarily an elevation event on the OP EURO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Henry's Weather Posted January 25 The para has a H5 low just spinning south of SNE for about 24 hours. Looong duration event. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 06Z GFS even took things up a notch from 00z... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06Z GFS even took things up a notch from 00z... No kidding. That would redeem this winter real fast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: No kidding. That would redeem this winter real fast. Tough to shake the feeling that, as John alluded to, this will end up something tamer, like the EURO. Even if the dynamics end up weaker than advertised, one thing that this one has going for it is duration. We'll see...I just never trust a HECS/MECS look during a mod la nina. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted January 25 7 days out....never set expectations that early. This could still be congrats SLK or a whiff. It does look at the moment though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 7 days out....never set expectations that early. This could still be congrats SLK or a whiff. It does look at the moment though. Crazy how consistent the GFS was from 00z to 06z....not that it means anything. Same, exact placement....just intensified the system a bit more aggressively. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25 As a metaphor ... I referred to this Feb 1-3rd event as a teleconnector "Lagrange point" - Lagranges are points where there is equal gravitational attraction at some distance between celestial bodies in space. ... essentially equal and opposing force are at equilibrium, and objects that meander into those locations will get stuck in gravitational amber ... no longer experiencing acceleration toward either body. SOHO satellite makes use of this... and is therefore stationary relative to Earth, even though it and Earth zip around the sun at like 65,000 mph ...heh. True tho - That region around 75-70 W longitude/ 40 N is basically becoming like an equilibrium in between. ...so there happens to be a timed wave mechanics that meanders into the position ... and is stranded by a lack of mode in the PNA exerting, and the NAO relaxation that's also pulling away - it's a node of negative space in that sense. Anyway, this thing appears to be less driven by any PNA --> PNAP morphologies. Yesterday I had impressed that there was some teleconnector convergence here, with the rising PNA and the rising NAO .. But, it doesn't appear looking at the actual operational pattern handling as though there is a +PNA much above background noise really contributing to that. I am also wonder if that may change ...? We may yet see a bit more get conveyed off the Pacific Basin, but as is...this appears to be wave disgards sort of collecting in clogged drainage basin in New England - it does smack of 1969 as Ray whomever that was alluded, if by principle alone at this sort of time lead. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: As a metaphor ... I referred to this Feb 1-3rd event as a teleconnector "Lagrange point" - Lagranges are points exist where there is equal gravitational attraction at some distance between celestial bodies in space. ... essentially equal and opposing force are at equilibrium, and the object no longer experiences acceleration toward either body. SOHO satellite makes use of this... and is therefore stationary relative to Earth, even though it and Earth zip around the sun at like 65,000 mph ...heh. True tho - That region around 75-70 W longitude/ 40 N is basically becoming like an equilibrium in between. ...so there happens to be a time wave mechanics that meanders into the position ... and is stranded by a lack of mode in the PNA exerting, and the NAO relaxation that's also pulling away - it's a node of negative space in that sense. Anyway, this thing appears to be less driven by any PNA --> PNAP morphologies. Yesterday I had impressed that there was some teleconnector convergence here, with the rising PNA and the rising NAO .. But, it doesn't appear looking at the actual operational pattern handling as though there is a +PNA much above background noise really contributing to that. I am also wonder if that may change ...? We may yet see a bit more get conveyed off the Pacific Basin, but as is...this appears to be wave disgards sort of collecting in clogged drainage basin in New England - it does smack of 1969 as Ray whomever that was alluded, if by principle alone at this sort of time lead. Yea, I said last night it reminded me of Feb '69 displaced to the south about 100mi. Not insane dynamics, but just a protracted period of respectable rates. That event was also primarily NAO driven. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I said last night it reminded me of Feb '69 displaced to the south about 100mi. Not insane dynamics, but just a protracted period of respectable rates. That event was also primarily NAO driven. I would be curious to know what the modality - less the in situ mode ... - was during the lead in and playout of that protracted event of lore. I am wondering if the index was modulating up or down ... My hunch is either. CPC and the like only give the index at monthly means throughout history ... Good luck finding intra-weekly discrete analysis from 50 years ago ..ha 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25 Coldest air of the season being ushered in as we end Jan and enter Feb. Gonna below 0 readings in NNE and singles in SNE. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25 SWFE to start the month per GFS. Perhaps late bloomer coastal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
