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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.  

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

How many final blows can the PV take in one season?

It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply  help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February. 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Hmmm. Pac extension , cyclonic wave breaking, develop Aleutian High and potentially another strat hit.  

 

 

 

For the less educated among us, what, if anything does thus imply for us?

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C'mon folks I need some good news here...please tell me that we won't have to punt February, and that we'll have a chance. Haven't heard anybody say a ton about Feb. yet! (Edit, I see some discussion a page or two ago) A chance or no?

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Retreat! 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 10 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0

(With next week's east coast storm ~ a week away, this will be the last post of this type in the long-range forum) 

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Not a bad look for early Feb. Not exactly what we want to see up to the NE, but this pattern has the potential to bring some decent cold. That's an ingredient we have been sorely missing.

1612569600-s7uPK6ngfQE.png

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9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

For the less educated among us, what, if anything does thus imply for us?

Not one damn thing. Everything has looked great for a month or more and if you look outside on the ground you can see how we have benefited.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is a conveyor belt of systems thru first week of Feb+. Lots of tracking potential ahead.

Well, I certainly can't get enough of tracking potential.

 

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I will not be tracking anything in Feb, even if anything comes. I am not going to put myself through that kind of stress for another month, with little results. 

And with that, I will be taking a break for a while, starting now.

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Just now, nj2va said:

It's the one after the one after the one after the one after the one.

Who needs actual snow? It's messy and cold and they brine and salt the roads to death.

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

I will not be tracking anything in Feb, even if anything comes. I am not going to put myself through that kind of stress for another month, with little results. 

And with that, I will be taking a break for a while, starting now.

Aren't you moving to Florida in the Spring?

Track the hell out of everything and have fun with it. Lets bring one home before you head to a place where it never snows. Err wait..

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who needs actual snow? It's messy and cold and they brine and salt the roads to death.

Save the Chesapeake!   End all snow!

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Look at that 500mb pattern! It’s pretty damn good!

 

 

 

Epic!!!

If this is our new normal for blocking patterns, its gonna be really tough for snow in these parts. I will blame it somewhat on the Nina and bad luck so far, but there is also that elephant in the room..

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42 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

A real storm threat means the LR thread goes into hibernation.

the long range also is looking blah...not awful but we might have to wait for a reload of the pattern towards Mid February after this next 10 day stretch.  

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15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

the long range also is looking blah...not awful but we might have to wait for a reload of the pattern towards Mid February after this next 10 day stretch.  

see you soon

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

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Its sad but I'm legitimately scared to click on it.
Don't be, it's heading in the right direction

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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B57B57D8-9495-4E44-88EC-E2C8DEECBCFD.thumb.png.2d7e24073a2d542df3189dc97c32dcc3.png
here we go again down the next rabbit hole. Why not. So this time the TPV is actually on our side and the coldest air in the N Hemisphere is in N America. -NAO. WPO ridge.  Cooler SSTs in Feb. Ok might as well try EVERY possible variation of a good pattern just to prove we’re fooked no matter what lol 

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