• Member Statistics

    16,545
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    acibarich
    Newest Member
    acibarich
    Joined
yoda

January Long Range Disco Thread

Recommended Posts

Just now, Ji said:

take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup

It's not really a coup though other guidance has been hitting that also.  We had 2 euro op runs...the ensembles this run, and there is "some" degree of support on the GEFS.  This is not high probability yet but its not praying for some obscure model to score a coup either.  Its a legit threat, and definitely the best one we have had since mid December.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene.  But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern.  And it looks like they will get it.  There is a trade off though.  That is not as good a HECS look.  It opens the door to cold/dry.  It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us.  I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look.  But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look.  It just depends what your preference is.  

But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? 

In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? 

(I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not really a coup though other guidance has been hitting that also.  We had 2 euro op runs...the ensembles this run, and there is "some" degree of support on the GEFS.  This is not high probability yet but its not praying for some obscure model to score a coup either.  Its a legit threat, and definitely the best one we have had since mid December.  

this will be ruled as banter but..  the only coup going on right now is in Congress

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger.  That storm is going to miss us.  Its going to screw us over.  And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens.  That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days.  Our legit threats are the period before that and after it.  

Feels like you oughta make a thread with just this post and have the mods pin it at the top, lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? 

In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? 

(I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear)

We didn't really give it much time though...the pac is just backing off now.  Maybe after a week domestic cold would be enough.  Or maybe not...I have been disappointed recently in what native airmasses look like absent cross polar flow.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The period coming up is rife with shortwaves and it really is just starting with the system Friday. If your are expecting a model or models to get a 5+ day forecast right with all that going on, you’re probably gonna be disappointed.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Speaking of coups ....

Hope this isn't too much banter or sounding overly political (given the situation!)...but I hope you're doing OK over there right in DC.  Lived near Capitol Hill for years before moving to where I'm at now in MD, so I can imagine how crazy it must be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plenty of good hits in the EPS.

 

Some flush hits,  some miss south and some miss north. 

Good overall. 

Hopefully we can build on this.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Plenty of good hits in the EPS.

 

Some flush hits,  some miss south and some miss north. 

Good overall. 

Hopefully we can build on this.

nice to actually see the EPS for once be better than the OP

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Plenty of good hits in the EPS.

 

Some flush hits,  some miss south and some miss north. 

Good overall. 

Hopefully we can build on this.

Agreed.  It's actually the best its looked IMO.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger.  That storm is going to miss us.  Its going to screw us over.  And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens.  That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days.  Our legit threats are the period before that and after it.  

I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow.  It can snow the 12th and after the 16th...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really like the -NAO+PNA setup around mid-January. I doubt we'll get a +PNA so far south in La Nina, but we'll see. This area seems to be leading the indexes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought GFS was going to get flurries into DC based on H48 but then just shredded apart by the northern vort.  Definitely came "norther" though.

ETA:  500 also closes off this run too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Looks good. Let's see if it falls apart in the next few frames lol.

Mod+ snow DC/south...light snow north of DC at 126.  HH is on.  :hurrbear:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You could literally take 5 random images from the past two weeks from the gfs at h5 and they wouldn’t be any different from each other than the past 5 are.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

haven't read every post here, but i'm not done tracking friday's system.  it looks like it unravels a bit on approach, i'm assuming due to confluence/dry air, but that's a close call.  january 2010 had a northern fringe system as well that surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.