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Typhoon Tip

Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It relates to that last bullet point(s) ... I was elaborating on the rather jolt halting in the total synoptic wave translation speeds, and that tandem hemispheric "flashing" in of the -NAO over the western limb of its domain space - partially instructing backlog, partially related to slowing overall.

That is all happening like over the next 3 panels after this image above  lol... so, yeah, you're caution is certainly warranted, and much of this is predicated on the slowing hemisphere actually succeeding ... It's not going West given that success... If not,  up in the air as the pun goes.

The other aspect tho is that the models ...pretty much none indicate a west motion with that deep layer wave space - regardless of the downstream train crash.  Sometimes it might okay to nod to weighted consensus, too - it's hard since errors have been noted.

Yeah the flow is definitely slowing down. But I'm just making a note that the big davis strait block isn't present yet....this one is being slowed by an iceland block further downstream and sometimes there's less "wiggle room" so to speak on those.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Figure I should throw in the hemispheric chart for the same timeframe as my CONUS chart

image.png.9ad9f59954e23cc74a755fe9df5756b6.png

Wouldn’t that low Atlantic Canada act as a quasi-50-50 to stop January 4 from cutting too far inland?

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Why are those dumb maps still even produced?

It's funny ...I actually like those..

I mean, I was back in the day geez.. 1997 even?  wow, this Golden State Weather site was launched back then ...graphics et al were a primitive tech solution for delivery anyway, but that was actually considered a beautiful rendering compared to the pre internet DIFAX days ... haha.. Now that was primitive - but it was like those?  Back between print out and internet ubiquity there was a period of machine-specific graphics handlers ...and the DIFAX charts *(AVN ;) ) were black and white like that...

Since I grew up Meteorologically in that realm...I kinda sorta like those because it's something I'm used to reading and associating to ... you know, real world deterministic needs and so forth. I look at those and they make sense immediately to me. 

Buuuut, having said that - agreed, they are primitive by today's standards no doubt.  lol

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the flow is definitely slowing down. But I'm just making a note that the big davis strait block isn't present yet....this one is being slowed by an iceland block further downstream and sometimes there's less "wiggle room" so to speak on those.

That may also be open 'somewhat' to interpretation ..The Euro has the D. Str blocking a-bomb mushroom capping the flow by early on D7...in fact, is half way erupted by D6 already - it's sort of in the 'acceleration curve' of onset and ... you know, it's almost like there is a 'synergistic' to slow this bitch down that even seems to precede the 'westness' of the NAO.... Maybe that is the AO big brother watching lol

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wouldn’t that low Atlantic Canada act as a quasi-50-50 to stop January 4 from cutting too far inland?

The 01/02 system looks to affect the one on the 4th as well as the HP.

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wouldn’t that low Atlantic Canada act as a quasi-50-50 to stop January 4 from cutting too far inland?

sort of .. .

That whole structure may be a snap shot en route to some destination ... That is probably true, because we "should be" seeing the N. Atln changes coming into emergence soon thereafter... anyway, that is a vague impression of a L/W axis out around 60 W or so, ... in terms of total wave spacing, it's in the ball-park.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

download (15).png

I will gladly take 8 to 12 over a 48 hour period. That gets a straight back into winter with some really good prospects to follow. Fingers crossed, we might get a real stretch here

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

Would be nice and go a long way to getting things started again. fingers crossed.

I think i would be going to visit Ed.

image.png.ca41cd233e39c29696aa993353d71bbe.png

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Euro looks like trash.....vortmax is over in ROC at 108h and H5 center is up near Lake Huron. Bruce Willis caution flags on this setup for sure.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like trash.....vortmax is over in ROC at 108h and H5 center is up near Lake Huron. Bruce Willis caution flags on this setup for sure.

It’s really warm too. I just don’t  like the s/w as you said. 

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There's actually a weird follow-up vort behind the main one....see circled below....I wonder if that can help reorganize it further south.

 

Dec30_12zEuro114.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's actually a weird follow-up vort behind the main one....see circled below....I wonder if that can help reorganize it further south.

 

Dec30_12zEuro114.png

It’s trying. We’re gonna need to dynamically flip then.

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