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January 2021

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SNE missed out on 2/25 too...that was about a foot of paste up here.

Yeah that was well beyond my 4 week period 1/7-2/2....but that was a mixed bag storm down here....decent amount of marginal ZR in the ORH hills with like 1-2" of snow on each side of the changeover.

2/27 was actually an overperforming clipper for a small zone too. Megan was in N Chelmsford back then and I was up there and about 7 or 8 inches of snow in 4-5 hours fell.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Easton did well. There was a massive gradient from about Duxbury on west-southwest through Taunton into RI.

Yep. It was good here but great for Taunton on North in 2011. Started off getting dry slotted by that first big storm, I think 1/9/11.

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It looks like all of February will be very good as well. 

January update to

SEAS5 showing strong support for a negative NAO during Jan & Feb. I suspect that the shift from previous forecasts arises from the now sig. weakened strat vortex, for which there was not a strong signal in the Dec fcst (although some suggestion).

 

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice storm. Into SE MA, but who cares this far out.

ORH obliterator this run....but good to see a storm there. Details don't matter. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH obliterator this run....but good to see a storm there. Details don't matter. 

Yeah definitely "Christina!!"  LOL.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

10 days left in the period, 10 days.

And then we can all start fretting about the inevitable pattern breakdown. :rolleyes:

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I've been waiting in the wings on this topic - 

I don't see where an SSW of the ilk that matters to "forcing" on the AO has actually happened.   Granted, the monitoring has suspended as it normally does flipping the new calendar year. Probably when they get back in office/recovered from PTOs around the holidays they'll update the last week's worth ... but prior to that, there was no SSW in the typical channels that are given to the free/public access:

image.thumb.png.59a17299a0e209e47cb2b2e9f99d6c28.png

Those small yellow pockets up there in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels are not it ... those are normal thermal 'noise' that is typical at suspension and decay ... 

What one should be looking for is this ( left hand side):

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2006.gif

Someone out there in the e-din of the social media ...where it overlaps more convention social comms of the society - new's paper/tele/radio etc... - is bandying claims of SSW and it's beginning to bag as that source not really understanding what it is they are looking for ... Now, I have been 'waiting in the wings' because I am not entirely certain they may have some other monitoring method/access out there; it may be possible that the method used by the CPC just hasn't detecting it but more on that below ( 2nd bullet point ..), but it seem unlikely that would be the case.

1 ..  SSW are prominent features that are discernable, like is seen above - please see this site and evaluated years past, and you'll start to sense that this is not happening(ed) this year to date. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

2 .. They are coherently disruptive in a lag correlation that average 20 days.  Why?  Because the kind of thermal pulsation en masse that we are looking for in SSW phenomenon, downwells in the atmosphere as a (literally) downward moving mass of warm air layers ...You can see that in the above image... a year long from 2006.  That year featured a very strong and clearly defined SSW, and you can see ( left ..) how the pulse of warmth moved downward as the x-coordinate ( time ..) along the bottom aged on.  You can see also it was nodal in nature, with a warm arc having a centroid warm mass the appears approximately once a week...that's because the warm pulse rotates around the pV as it descends... while the pV over all is warming... Notice also the cold coupled that emerges over top - that is the complete circulation eddy of the SSW phenomenon... 

3 ..  None of that has happened this year according to CPC's 30 years of data to use as inference - 

4 .. What has happened:   There has been a peculiar semi permanent warm node at around the 50 and 100 hPas that has persisted over NE Siberian/Kamchatka/Alaskan regions ... 

gfs_t100_nh_f00.png

I suspect - though am not certain ..only suspect - that whatever source(s) are hitting the SSW so hard are or have mistaken that as being an SSW...  Regarding that

     a .. there are almost no SSW since monitoring began that have ignited in October or November... In fact, the earliest I think is early Dec.   

     b .. in order for the propagation timing of the 20 days to be stablizing the pV and causing it to break down ( -AO ), it would have had to take place by early December to be forcing now.

     c .. the present -AO predates any consideration before even having this discussion. The AO can be motivated to fall from the normal Hemispheric tumult - in the off chance that warm anomaly is in fact being mistaken: those positive anomalies in the 100 hPa level we see up there did not arrive from top down - no they did not... They were instilled into that region prior to any normal SSW gestation that is the correlation model for forcing the -AO, during the mid to late autumn via other mechanisms.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been waiting in the wings on this topic - 

I don't see a where an SSW of the ilk that matters to "forcing" on the AO has actually happened.   Granted, the monitoring has suspended as it normally does flipping the new calendar year. Probably when they get back in office/recovered from PTOs around the holidays they'll update the last week's worth ... but prior to that, there was no SSW in the typical channels that are given to the free/public access:

image.thumb.png.59a17299a0e209e47cb2b2e9f99d6c28.png

Those small yellow pockets up there in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels are not it ... those are normal thermal 'noise' that is typical and suspension and decay ... 

What one should be looking for is this ( left hand side):

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2006.gif

Someone out there in the e-din of the social media ...where it overlaps more convention social comms of the society - new's paper/tele/radio etc... - is bandying claims of SSW and it's beginning to bag as that source not really understanding what it is they are looking for ... Now, I have been 'waiting in the wings' because I am not entirely certain their is some other monitoring geography out there; it may be possible that the method used by the CPC just hasn't detected it but more on that below ( 2nd bullet point ..)  

1 ..  SSW are prominent features that are discernable, like is seen above - please see this site and evaluated years past, and you'll start to sense that this is not happening(ed) this year to date. 

2 .. They coherently disruptive in a lag correlation that average 20 days.  Why?  Because the kind of thermal pulsation en masse that we are looking for in SSW phenomenon, downwells in the atmosphere as a (literally) downward moving mass of warm air layers ...You can see that in the above image... a year long from 2006.  That year featured a very strong and clearly defined SSW, and you can see ( left ..) how the pulse of warmth moved downward as the x-coordinate ( time ..) along the bottom aged on.  You can see also it was nodal in nature, with a warm arc having a centroid warm mass the appears approximately once a week...that's because the warm pulse rotates around the pV as it descends... while the pV over all is warming... Notice also the cold coupled that emerges over top - that is the complete circulation eddy of the SSW phenomenon... 

3 ..  None of that has happened this year according to CPC's 30 years of data to use as inference - 

4 .. What has happened:   There has been a peculiar semi permanent warm node at around the 50 and 100 hPas that has persisted over NE Siberian/Kamchatka/Alaskan regions ... 

gfs_t100_nh_f00.png

I suspect - though am not certain ..only suspect - that whatever source(s) are hitting the SSW so hard are or have mistaken that as being an SSW...  Regarding that

     a .. there are almost no SSW since monitoring began that have ignited in October or November... In fact, the earliest I think is early Dec.   

     b .. in order for the propagation timing of the 20 days to be stablizing the pV and causing it to break down ( -AO ), it would have had to take place by early December to be forcing now.

     c .. the present -AO predates any consideration before even having this discussion. The AO can be motivated to fall from the normal Hemispheric tumult - in the off chance that warm anomaly is in fact being mistaken: those positive anomalies in the 100 hPa level we see up there did not arrive from top down - no they did not... They were instilled into that region prior to any normal SSW gestation that is the correlation model for forcing the -AO, during the mid to late autumn via other mechanisms.

It's more like a displacement with a massive warm node from 50mb-10mb.  But it definitely split the vortex and/or displaced it so far.

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15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro has the pot cooking next week.  See what it brews up.

Capture.thumb.JPG.e21d099bd211391b1dc8d1a43d9c1b24.JPG

That's a nice two-stream subsume phased solution there... The starting heights are not overly deep - but that's been a part of this pattern and may be residual as modulator leading those mechanics.. That said, that appears be structurally quite proficient so, it may actually "core" that mess out once that gets more phased in and the total cyclogenetic feed-backs start lower heights from synoptic lift and [ lots of popsicle headache ...] leads to be deeper relative to the input streams. 

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D10 has what looks like a developing miller B threat....I had told Ray a few days ago that I thought we could have a better chance at a higher end system (like borderline HECS or better) after mid-month when the northern stream becomes more dominant...and Miller Bs are more common in northern stream dominant patterns.

So while D10 is clown range, that kind of look should be more common going into the second half of the month.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's more like a displacement with a massive warm node from 50mb-10mb.  But it definitely split the vortex and/or displaced it so far.

Perhaps ...I dunno - but the top image I provided does not contain an SSW...  when every year that has one, looks like the 2006 example I provided - or a closer approximation. 

I have also seen those warm 5 and 10 mb nodes pop off and not down well as I've been monitoring this shit for decades.  They are not provable/statistically significant modulators prior to the onset of -AO...  

Again, the AO this time predates even those 5 and 10 hPas this year -

I guess I respectfully disagree - I don't think we've had an SSW that matches the behavior set of historical inference.   I think there are some coincident behaviors going on - ... we'll see how the rest of the year goes.   

Also, the QBO is not in the typical phase for SSW ...it's not a deal breaker or nothin... but usually the QBO is in the easterly phase -

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Not to be crank, but, ... the Euro just dealt us a lie not 48 hours prior to this last "spectral snow storm" ... 

I'm sure we all know that tho  lol

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