January 2021

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Agreed. Part of the problem are "all season" tires that might as well be a racing slick. It amazes me how many drive on totally inappropriate tires in winter in New England. That and just terrible driving skills (cell phone)

I keep all seasons on all year.  For the very few days I have to drive on snow packed roads (haven't yet this year), I just drive more cautiously & slowly.

[CoastalWx]

-SN and nice flakes here. 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s the only thing I try but typically image is too big and it’s too much work to compress.

Maybe I luck out, but all I do is choose the image size when prompted.  Typically, large is still well within the limits.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS and EPS shake hands on 2/1 as the next real threat........which is....10 days away.

But, no...I mean it, this time.

Not to split hairs with you but I guess ,.. what constitutes "real threat" then ? 

Because isn't the 26th is on the table -

you know...while we're at it, I can see not calling the 26th a threat.  I don't like the use of the word 'threat.' Drives me batty for petty reasons ( I admit that ...) but I still hate it.  Every exploded virga CU is not a threat.  I mean, I see this word put on thread titles or nested in sentences over every kink in a jet stream and threat means portending harm.  "Ok, it's only 2-4 inches but I'll go fire up a thread for this threat threat threat...  "

"Threat" should be reserved for that three, maybe four day window before 1992 ... or 1993, 1978 ... or any one of those talcum powder overrated dust blizzards from 2015  ( that oughtin' piss off the ceremonial torch bearers ) 

These are more like 'events' until otherwise deemed necessary to gaslight the headlines -   just sayn'

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks like it's gonna be more suppressed this run for 1/26.

[Typhoon Tip]

Perfect!   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Perfect!   

So much for you inner strife concerning 1/26 threat designation.

[Greg]

Nice cotton balls hitting the deck.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH with the rare moderate snow obs these days

KORH 211754Z 21008KT 1/2SM R11/3000V4500FT SN FZFG VV012 M05/M07 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP051 P0001 60001 T10501072 11039 21089 56029

Yeah, some nice fatties falling out there.

Nice look on the 12z Euro today.

[ORH_wxman]

Meat grinder this run. It's a subtle change, but when you're on the edge, it means a lot in sensible wx.

[NorEastermass128]

What an amazingly frustrating period.  Decent pattern and rolling snake eyes every single time.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meat grinder this run. It's a subtle change, but when you're on the edge, it means a lot in sensible wx.

I feel liberated because I couldn't care any less.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Meat grinder this run. It's a subtle change, but when you're on the edge, it means a lot in sensible wx.

That s/w is going to have to be a monster to cut into that blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No snow in Chelsea...just covid, poverty and despair.

Add snow to the list!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel liberated because I couldn't care less.

Yeah?  I don't think I've heard you talk enough about not caring about this. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That s/w is going to have to be a monster to cut into that blocking.

The blocking is going to run the show. Whatever happens up there will determine how far north this one gets. You could see on this run that the western PV lobe in central Canada got elongated and stretched more which then linked up with the Nova Scotia low and made it tough to get downstream ridging.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah?  I don't think I've heard you talk enough about not caring about this. 

Its feels good.

[CoastalWx]

Regression is a bitch. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

Nice fuzzy balls hitting my chin and chest.

Wilmington has livened up a bit since I left

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Regression is a bitch. 

Its funny....mother nature settled all tabs this season. We were due for a dry spell with respect to snowfall, and we were due for some blocking.....2021 is just mother nature's vehicle for regression.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Regression is a bitch. 

Regression would maybe imply a terrible pattern but we also seem to be dealing with some bad timing and bad luck.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Regression would maybe imply a terrible pattern but we also seem to be dealing with some bad timing and bad luck.  

It's all part of climo. We average what we average because of good patterns, bad patterns, good luck, bad luck etc. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Regression would maybe imply a terrible pattern but we also seem to be dealing with some bad timing and bad luck.  

No, its both...part of snowfall regression entails success or failure that is not commensurate to the pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Regression would maybe imply a terrible pattern but we also seem to be dealing with some bad timing and bad luck.  

We are due for the latter too.

Anyways, I def wouldn't sell 1/26 yet. Not like the Euro went way south...it was a subtle change with the lobe in central Canada and those seem to flip around each run.

 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like it's gonna be more suppressed this run for 1/26.

That 850 is in the Great Lakes. Expect some surface reflection changes as the days pass. Lots of time left, any slight delay in timing and that Scooter shit streak could pull out a little west as the GGEM shows.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

What an amazingly frustrating period.  Decent pattern and rolling snake eyes every single time.  

It's a horrible pattern - 

why do we keep saying this ? ... 

if it were a otherwise, we wouldn't be stacking adjectives like meat grinder this or suppressed like an Electra complex in describing a why features won't phase -

[Damage In Tolland]

What a dark period this month has been .. weather wise and otherwise in this country. Every single thing that happened has been bad. EPS will crush S NJ .. just watch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a horrible pattern - 

why do we keep saying this ? ... 

if it were a otherwise, we wouldn't be stacking adjectives like meat grinder this or suppressed like an Electra complex to describe a why features won't phase -

Well, with a break or two we would have made out okay with respect to snowfall....there are worse patterns. I mean, its not 60 degrees with a death star over AK and Greenland.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a horrible pattern - 

why do we keep saying this ? ... 

if it were a otherwise, we wouldn't be stacking adjectives like meat grinder this or suppressed like an Electra complex to describe a why features won't phase -

We are still told it is a good pattern in part for continuity and in part  to lessen the “intolerable whining” so now we have the Jim Jones pattern. Drink up 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Well this pattern has made forecasting easy for New England forecasters.  I mean dry and sunny, but cold each day for the foreseeable future.  12z is liking the Day 7 threat that the GFS just shoves southeast into Bermuda!