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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lol. I think the icon actually did fairly well with surface temps on the last event. Seems slightly colder and “wedgier” this go round. Definitely keeps parts of the triangle as ice through most of the event. CAD regions would have a major ice event

The ICON nailed the snow that we got in Catawba County on Feb 6th and stayed consistent for 7-8 runs in a row. Its been consistently showing this now for 4-5 runs.

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On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look

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RGEM (which did very well on profiles for the this weekend) and Icon (which nailed the snow event consistently just before that) are fully on board.  NAM (which has also performed quite well this year) is hinting around it, but still not quite home.  That said, we're still in fairly extreme NAM range until midday tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look

It’s been oddly dry here as of late and then corrects itself 18-24 before kickoff or at least trends toward globals qpf output. 

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27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This would be devastating here 

zr_acc.us_ma (7).png

 

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z 12k NAM ... ouch Screenshot_20210215-215054_Chrome.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Boy I can’t help but think when looking more specifically at the 3k Nam a Bruce Willis Armageddon scene out this way with huge chunks of asteroid type hail balls falling from the sky looking at soundings and then 850s/2m’s. The sleet would be epic out this way. 

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

Boy I can’t help but think when looking more specifically at the 3k Nam a Bruce Willis Armageddon scene out this way with huge chunks of asteroid type hail balls falling from the sky looking at soundings and then 850s/2m’s. The sleet would be epic out this way. 

Definitely looks like sleet city in our neck of the woods.  What is the rain to sleet ratio again?  Is it for every inch of rain it's 2 or 3 inches of sleet?  It makes me wonder what the record for sleet is in one storm.  Anyone know?

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