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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah.

One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain.

I really am just flabbergasted.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah.

One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain.

I really am just flabbergasted.

No cold on this side of the globe. For one thing.

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah.

One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain.

I really am just flabbergasted.

Have to get by this weekend. They claimed it would start around this time, and as we all know it takes time to feel effects of a PV split. But yes I agree with others it won't be any bone chilling cold but more so average temperatures. But with the La Nina I will take average at this point. Hopefully night time lows are cold enough to trigger some snow...

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1 minute ago, Geez150 said:

Have to get by this weekend. They claimed it would start around this time, and as we all know it takes time to feel effects of a PV split. But yes I agree with others it won't be any bone chilling cold but more so average temperatures. But with the La Nina I will take average at this point. Hopefully night time lows are cold enough to trigger some snow...

It looks like Europe and Asia, of course, are the beneficiaries of this PV split. We shall continue to tinker and dawdle.

Was nice to see snow falling for 2 hours today...even if the dusting went "poof" the second the sun came out. haha

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I know, I enjoyed having coffee while watching the snow fall. It made it feel/look like winter at least for a couple hours this morning.

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We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. :lol:

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. :lol:

I will gladly take it! :)  The brown, dark, barren landscape is so depressing to me. As I've said many times, give me the bright white of any snowy landscape and my mood is immediately lifted. There is a bit of a psychological component to it. Waaaaay too much bare ground during the winters this past decade has been hard on me. Snow cover, snow falling, snow all over warm-weather weenies...I want it all.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. :lol:

Amazing the difference 15 miles can make in seasonal perception....We’ve had no snow cover here for the last couple weeks. Definite pre-spring vibe, especially the last couple days when temps warmed up a bit. Plus the grass is so green it’s actually not as drab as usual. Pretty good conditions for chipping golf balls around the yard with how dry it is. But just 15 miles away you’ve been “feeling” winter this whole time.  

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The forecast becomes much less certain as we head into late Friday
and Friday night. The vertically stacked system to our west will
further weaken as it shifts east. Meanwhile, several models runs
(GFS/ECMWF/ Canadian) show a sfc wave developing along the cold
front. This could lead to a slower departure of the cold front as it
advances eastward. The GFS rapidly develops and deepens the sfc
frontal wave, while all other solutions are much less aggressive and
weaker with the coastal sfc low for Friday night into Saturday. With
this much uncertainty have kept high end chance POPs from late
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Also, if the front slows there could
be some minor accumulating snows, especially across the higher
terrain as colder air deepens across the region.

Saturday, the sfc coastal low quickly depart off to the northeast
along the coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges H850T down
to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening while the vertically stacked
mid-level low aloft swinging in over the region. Expecting numerous
snow showers during the day, before lake effect takes shape Saturday
night through the rest of this period.

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37 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Amazing the difference 15 miles can make in seasonal perception....We’ve had no snow cover here for the last couple weeks. Definite pre-spring vibe, especially the last couple days when temps warmed up a bit. Plus the grass is so green it’s actually not as drab as usual. Pretty good conditions for chipping golf balls around the yard with how dry it is. But just 15 miles away you’ve been “feeling” winter this whole time.  

Obviously a lot of grass showing but still a lot of snow cover and large piles. My deck still has 2” on it. 

3585C87D-6E1D-4620-811C-CA575F108E64.jpeg

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Finally something to watch tomorrow!  Maybe...

 

KBUF bumped up a little on their map...  Channel 2 is showing a 3-5” stripe now... and 0z HRRR has a nice metro hit...  

 

 

AC6F44A6-E4DE-45D0-9616-293904C73CCD.png

3C320902-7F1D-4CBB-87C5-DE7CFC9CD222.jpeg

67CC6127-71E2-4010-8777-FB83CD98D9D7.jpeg

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Wish I could believe this lol

Nws did bump pulaski up an inch so there's that lol

Probably bump it north 10-15 miles..

Screenshot_20210111-213413.png

Yup same with the Erie band. They never learn.

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Bare ground, temps in the 30s, perpetual gray (except the last few days). This feels more like the I-95 corridor than western NY.

By the way, is there any maintenance that needs to be done on a snowblower that's never used?

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yup same with the Erie band. They never learn.

Thermal througing is only present in early season events. With the lake at 36 degrees I don’t think it’s as likely as it is in November and December. 

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thermal througing is only present in early season events. With the lake at 36 degrees I don’t think it’s as likely as it is in November and December. 

Yeah I agree, however like the GFS has a cold bias I have noticed meso models do tend to have a south bias in lake bands...I go back to the January 2018 lake effect event...snowed over my area for over 12 straight hours, shifted a bit south and then snowed several more after. The forecast was that it’s northern extent would be the airport, I live 4 miles north. It happens more than you think.

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35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I agree, however like the GFS has a cold bias I have noticed meso models do tend to have a south bias in lake bands...I go back to the January 2018 lake effect event...snowed over my area for over 12 straight hours, shifted a bit south and then snowed several more after. The forecast was that it’s northern extent would be the airport, I live 4 miles north. It happens more than you think.

With the way this shortwave is working in from the NW, I'd favor a more northerly component to the winds then typical LES. I think max is right around airport from this or slightly north.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah.

One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain.

I really am just flabbergasted.

Read this Matt, it's encouraging. ;)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/

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8 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Hope it plays out. My outlook is based upon patterns. When you get this late into the season it’s tough to shake a crap pattern. That and this is the 3rd and final year of a typical down cycle. IDK

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1 hour ago, PerintonMan said:

Bare ground, temps in the 30s, perpetual gray (except the last few days). This feels more like the I-95 corridor than western NY.

By the way, is there any maintenance that needs to be done on a snowblower that's never used?

I grew up not far from 95....winters were MUCH sunnier.

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6 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Hope it plays out. My outlook is based upon patterns. When you get this late into the season it’s tough to shake a crap pattern. That and this is the 3rd and final year of a typical down cycle. IDK

Hope you are right about being 3 of 3 for bad winters. We are in desperate need for a good winter but in all reality in need of back to back good winters it's not even funny..

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