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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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This is a bit anecdotal but still quite interesting.  I always like to compare the high peaks snowpacks as a consistent metric for the intensity of our winter.  These higher elevation locations are less susceptible to quick warmups and thus give a nice average of where things stand.  Unfortunately, high peaks snowpack in the Northeast is flirting with all time record  low territory.  Sadder yet, I can only find a couple years where snowpack on this date is as low as it is now....... the dreaded 2015-2016 season, and 2011-2012 season.  Basically the 2 most recent years without winter for many us.    Snowpack is currently a solid 2 feet less than normal and almost 5-6 feet lower than good years. This does not bode well for where things stand and the the next 2 weeks already look atrocious. I really think the writing is now on the wall for a very lackluster winter.  I was holding out hope but its just not looking good. 

 

Current Season
997233798_CurrentMtMansfield.JPG.4f824801240a5702d0b0c67017e96e2e.JPG

 

The year without winter - 2015/2016

1733133688_2015MtMansfield.JPG.79714e54b4579b50da7c27026a347c8e.JPG

2011-2012 "Winter"
398322635_2011MtMansfield.JPG.7ba96bd015d5ff84f1eea90dde852969.JPG
 

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So to all my rowdy friends I beg this question. What Is the reason it is so difficult to dislodge the dreaded Bermuda high? Every storm on the GFS and Euro go west and north pushing away seemingly just as strong Arctic high pressure with relative ease. I guess I’m wondering why one can anchor and stay for weeks and affect our storm track while the other is transient and constantly giving way to LP systems...I would think (amateur opinion here) that if both were of equal strength that the system would have a squeeze play of sorts giving us some warmer storms and some colder storm but not all warmer storms...any thoughts?

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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So to all my rowdy friends I beg this question. What Is the reason it is so difficult to dislodge the dreaded Bermuda high? Every storm on the GFS and Euro go west and north pushing away seemingly just as strong Arctic high pressure with relative ease. I guess I’m wondering why one can anchor and stay for weeks and affect our storm track while the other is transient and constantly giving way to LP systems...I would think (amateur opinion here) that if both were of equal strength that the system would have a squeeze play of sorts giving us some warmer storms and some colder storm but not all warmer storms...any thoughts?

From Met on NE forum

EPO sucks but the NAO is a fraud -NAO. It’s not a west-based Davis Strait or even Hudson Bay block. It’s eastern Greenland to Iceland ridging with a  vortex over Baffin Island...in scientific technical lingo, that’s called a dogshit negative NAO.

They can be ok when the PAC is mediocre but not when it is hostile. Previously, model guidance showed a true Davis Strait block which was going to offset the shitty PAC. 

Basically the PAC has sucked for a few years now. 

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It could be worse

2020 isn't quite over yet, but barring something unexpected - For DC (downtown station plus DCA airport) has its warmest minimum for the calendar year on record, 22, beating 21 in 1949. Also the least snowy calendar year on record, 0.2", beating 0.5" in 1998.

— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) December 28, 2020

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The PV splits but the cold air goes to the Northwest

models-2020122800-f192.500h_anom_na.gif.2474dc2330f70e0f59ae1dc58d8c82d4.gif

Oddly on the GFS it goes east coast and that’s only next week too, the GFS isn’t until the 11th

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Trash PAC

7Wwjs2R.png

I mean that is only a full week and it does start to trend towards neutral so maybe that’s why the very same model that’s forecasting that is forecasting 4 days later a cold dump into the east...could be a good sign, I mean look at what barely negative just did for us! 20+“ of snow

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Concerning lake effect, inversions less than 5kft and dry air with
approaching high pressure ridge will limit the response off Lake
Erie through Tuesday. Expect numerous westerly flow multiple band
regime snow showers tonight especially impacting higher terrain from
Chautauqua county into Southern Erie county. Winds shift more
northwest late tonight into Tuesday, pushing most of the snow
showers into Chautauqua county, but coverage and intensity will
really be waning by that time. Accumulations of a few inches are
expected.

Off Lake Ontario, expect a more robust lake response. Forecast
soundings show inversions rising to 7-8kft and lake equilibrium
levels to 11-12kft late this evening through the overnight and into
Tuesday morning. Soundings also show that good part of lake
convective layer will reside within prime DGZ for better snowflake
growth. Winds start out westerly with stronger convergence band
pushing in across Tug Hill Plateau through late evening then winds
shift more northwest overnight, ending the lake effect over the Tug
Hill but pushing it more into Oswego/N. Cayuga and Wayne counties
with this activity also boosted by hint of upstream connection to
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For location of lake effect later
tonight off southeast Lake Ontario, leaned on the Canadian and
NAMnest. If winds were more steady for more of the night, think we
could be looking at some warning criteria snow across Oswego county.
Shifting in the main band should keep amounts more in the 4-7 inch
range later tonight into Tuesday morning before the lake effect
fades away. Additionally, it is possible that the western end of
this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into
the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at
least some minor snow accumulations that could impact the Tuesday
morning commute, including in the Rochester area.
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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Concerning lake effect, inversions less than 5kft and dry air with
approaching high pressure ridge will limit the response off Lake
Erie through Tuesday. Expect numerous westerly flow multiple band
regime snow showers tonight especially impacting higher terrain from
Chautauqua county into Southern Erie county. Winds shift more
northwest late tonight into Tuesday, pushing most of the snow
showers into Chautauqua county, but coverage and intensity will
really be waning by that time. Accumulations of a few inches are
expected.

Off Lake Ontario, expect a more robust lake response. Forecast
soundings show inversions rising to 7-8kft and lake equilibrium
levels to 11-12kft late this evening through the overnight and into
Tuesday morning. Soundings also show that good part of lake
convective layer will reside within prime DGZ for better snowflake
growth. Winds start out westerly with stronger convergence band
pushing in across Tug Hill Plateau through late evening then winds
shift more northwest overnight, ending the lake effect over the Tug
Hill but pushing it more into Oswego/N. Cayuga and Wayne counties
with this activity also boosted by hint of upstream connection to
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For location of lake effect later
tonight off southeast Lake Ontario, leaned on the Canadian and
NAMnest. If winds were more steady for more of the night, think we
could be looking at some warning criteria snow across Oswego county.
Shifting in the main band should keep amounts more in the 4-7 inch
range later tonight into Tuesday morning before the lake effect
fades away. Additionally, it is possible that the western end of
this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into
the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at
least some minor snow accumulations that could impact the Tuesday
morning commute, including in the Rochester area.

I'm expecting less than 3" of snow and Im smack dab in the middle of where they say the band will end up. I will say the set-up is definitely ideal with a steady WNW flow for about 6-8 hrs which can drop several inches if it materializes the way they say it will but with the way things have gone so far, i'll stay cautiously optimistic!

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16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Icing potential is pretty decent for the weekend(C/ENY)~.50" liquid with subfreezing surface on a lot of guidance 

Both 18Z NAMs are also showing colder air seeping in from the Northeast on Thursday and precip being a bit slower to move out. As a result, they're trying to show us change over to a nice little burst of snow. Sometimes these waves along these transitory fronts can come with nice surprises.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

:sun: Calling for +5 for January for KBUF. 

 

 

 

I see you and Syrmax "like" this. Hmmm...I haven't observed the term "cough" -warministas- "cough" thrown around on here lately.... (remember back in the 2000s anytime somebody mentioned a "warm up" they had that term slung at them?!?! lol)

Still, I turn my nose up at you warministas.

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56 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Starting to see a lake response.. Sitting at 37 with some graupel..

WUNIDS_map (21).gif

Up towards your old stomping grounds had a nice burst first thing this morning.81 from Pulaski up to at least Adams exit 42 was pretty crappy with a good 2-3” in a hurry 

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I think this event for South East of Lake Ontario is going to over perform a bit.... For areas in Oswego County... I go with 6 to 10".... And then late tonight into tomorrow morning a 4 to 7" accumulation for northern Onondaga county and probably closer to 8" in my neck of the woods in Madison County.

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