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Seems like the trend at 0z is to lower the angle of entry into the forum area.  We saw the runs all day sharpen up the trough.  The trough at 0z (absent the NAM) looks more neutral.  Also, take a look at the top of the snow axis over the GL region.   Toggle back a run, and you can see it "lean" to the east.  That allows more snowfall on the SW side of the storm and into more of the forum area to the west.

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Even after time stamp on the map above, there is an upslope component that adds more to the NE TN and SW VA areas.  Absolute best case scenario for sure...Cold rushes into the storm earlier and the angle of approach is improved.  Chattanooga, portions of Alabama, and even northern Georgia get into the action.   Western NC can score one of two ways...change-over and/or upslope afterwards.

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One thing I noticed on the doomcast HRRR 0z is the division of the front into two waves that hit hours apart as the day progresses. How and why is beyond my understanding but one quick look at the NAM 3km in comparison doesn't show that present. Perhaps something to look out for. (Both screensnips taken at 15z)
Check it out yourself on the models. EDIT: Adding to my confusion 6 hours prior and earlier looking at the presentation of the front with 2m temps it appears stronger and more progressive than the NAM 3km.

HRRR Cold Front Diffusion 1.png

NAM 3KM UNITARY FRONT 1.png

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Basic synopsis:

Euro/UKIE furthest east. But the Euro is better for all of the Eastern valley as a whole than the GFS. 

GFS/NAM/HRRR not as much moisture return. Better for eastern middle Tennessee HRRR and Gfs/NAM far NE areas but not as good as the Euro for Knoxville and south down the 75 corridor. 

GGem/RGem would be our new best friend if they verify.  Big winter storm for the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area.  

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  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

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