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cyclone77

Christmas Eve 2020 Snow Potential

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14 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It's not looking too good for Toronto at the moment.

I think we're gonna see accumulating snow from this...possibly significant if things can align correctly. This upper level pattern is generally favourable for our area, especially with the ridge bridge to the north of the upper low. Would like to see more consistency on guidance. A wave is expected to develop as a secondary low along the front,  so models will probably struggle with the sfc low track. If track is up the spine of the apps it becomes slightly more challenging as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_norm_anom-8940800.thumb.png.4a677efb4e8ff57efbd76a52e79153fb.png

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The GFS hasn't caved yet, but I would be surprised if it ends up being more correct on the setup. It's on its own with the early development of a deep surface low way up in the northern Plains from a completely different handling of the northeast Pac wave.

Edit: Unfortunately, the 12z GEFS doesn't tell us much because it appears that ensemble remains too non-dispersive with the operational.

 

Meanwhile, the GEM is pretty similar to its previous runs, just on the deeper more phased side of the spectrum, so in that sense would not be good for the LOT CWA but a good event in MN, northern IA and WI.

 

The NAM at the end of the run looked interesting and pointed toward a phased solution, though caution advised in trying to extrapolate out from the end of NAM runs. Either way, it's certainly more in the Euro and GEM camp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Time to throw in the towel on a Christmas snowstorm. Not happening.

It may for someone.  

Unclear whether BAMwx can will it to occur in Indiana.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The GFS hasn't caved yet, but I would be surprised if it ends up being more correct on the setup. It's on its own with the early development of a deep surface low way up in the northern Plains from a completely different handling of the northeast Pac wave.

Edit: Unfortunately, the 12z GEFS doesn't tell us much because it appears that ensemble remains too non-dispersive with the operational.

 

Meanwhile, the GEM is pretty similar to its previous runs, just on the deeper more phased side of the spectrum, so in that sense would not be good for the LOT CWA but a good event in MN, northern IA and WI.

 

The NAM at the end of the run looked interesting and pointed toward a phased solution, though caution advised in trying to extrapolate out from the end of NAM runs. Either way, it's certainly more in the Euro and GEM camp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Euro abandoned us. It’s over. I couldn’t care less about Ohio getting more snow.

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The GFS and Euro are still very different at 500, but at the surface they’re similar. Euro as trended towards the GFS evolution at 500 though.

Probably can give it till tomorrow, but the writing is being drawn on the wall.


.

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20 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Euro sure isn’t what it used to be. 

Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show

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32 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Euro abandoned us. It’s over. I couldn’t care less about Ohio getting more snow.

Real nice dude.  What happened to us cheering for each other.  

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13 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show

It was terrible last week's northeast storm. It was terrible when it forecast 9" of snow last weekend for us. There's plenty to show, just not here.

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

You've had more than most.

And it's still not a thing. I've never seen anyone in Ohio gladly sacrifice a storm for folks further west and I would never expect you to. 

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Euro definitely caved from a sfc perspective towards GFS. Honestly think we will see a lot of flip flopping this week until the energy gets better sampled. Nam has a more euro look but it's also Nam at 84hrs. I'm not getting my hopes up for any snow at this point. 

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Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!!

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!!

Parts of Ohio have had a lot more, but yeah... weather is going to do what it's going to do.  

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Parts of Ohio have had a lot more, but yeah... weather is going to do what it's going to do.  

Im at 9.3" but that doesnt mean I want to miss the next snow either. I want all my snow friends to cash in from IL to OH, but if tracking something thats a more narrow band of snow, of course I will always root for mby, and I dont expect anyone else to do any differently for their by.

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35 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lol are people really arguing because one area of the sub has had no snow and another area of the sub has had 4 inches? I mean it’s been bad, but...everyone here is in pain. Including Bo!!

 I've had 17.5" since Nov 1st.  This time last year I had received over 80" and had a depth of 41".  As of today, the season total here is 46" and a current depth of 5".  Frost is already 30" deep.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

See ya in 2021.
595abce78074d41b7c675cdcc8a2b679.gif


.

Are you saying there's no chance for anyone?  Can you give a simple interpretation of this?

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Pretty clear this is northern stream dominated. The GFS with its progressive bias generally does better with this type of setup, though its cold air transport is overblown and will need to back off a bit.

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9 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Are you saying there's no chance for anyone?  Can you give a simple interpretation of this?

Less digging/amplification, which suggests more of a northern stream dominated outcome and keeps the ceiling on potential down compared to what earlier runs would have extrapolated to. 

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