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pasnownut

December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs

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Wow, this might have been the snowiest GFS run of them all right at game time. Both that and the 3k NAM have 3' at IPT (via Kuchera). Huge difference in the York/LNS realm though. That's going to be something to watch today which model wins with the thermals. Heck the 3k NAM got sleet all the way to KAOO on a huge surge of >0ºC 850mb temps, that's probably not going to happen. York and Lancaster probably aren't quite going to get to 20+ either as there should be some mixing. Given already solid establishment of cold air at 925mb and below via the Canadian high, I still feel most mixing is going to be in the form of sleet north of the mason-dixon. 

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8228000.thumb.png.89d108a43d4511ee889c885d1512b648.png

nam-nest-conus-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8246000.thumb.png.d4fc4f6e50b4ad76025ee46fde6eafe2.png

 

Here's the latest HRRR, which probably represents accums in the LSV a bit better currently with limited erosion of the accumulations in far southern York and Lancaster . Still snowing at 18hr in pretty much the whole eastern half of PA.

hrrr-conus-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8195600.thumb.png.6eecf36fbe9baaa1e8e9ce065992f8e4.png

 

 

 

 

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Just your average 18" difference between the GFS and NAM with the storm underway...
I'd gladly take the HRRR and it's depiction and be happy. 

Anything over a foot is a huge win.


.
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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow, this might have been the snowiest GFS run of them all right at game time. Both that and the 3k NAM have 3' at IPT (via Kuchera). Huge difference in the York/LNS realm though. That's going to be something to watch today which model wins with the thermals. Heck the 3k NAM got sleet all the way to KAOO on a huge surge of >0ºC 850mb temps, that's probably not going to happen. York and Lancaster probably aren't quite going to get to 20+ either as there should be some mixing. Given already solid establishment of cold air at 925mb and below via the Canadian high, I still feel most mixing is going to be in the form of sleet north of the mason-dixon. 

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8228000.thumb.png.89d108a43d4511ee889c885d1512b648.png

nam-nest-conus-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8246000.thumb.png.d4fc4f6e50b4ad76025ee46fde6eafe2.png

 

Here's the latest HRRR, which probably represents accums in the LSV a bit better currently with limited erosion of the accumulations in far southern York and Lancaster . Still snowing at 18hr in pretty much the whole eastern half of PA.

hrrr-conus-ma-total_snow_kuchera-8195600.thumb.png.6eecf36fbe9baaa1e8e9ce065992f8e4.png

 

 

 

 

I was just going to say this Mag. I just looked at the GFS now and my god, this has to be one of the snowiest runs I've seen in a long time. 

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13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow, this might have been the snowiest GFS run of them all right at game time. Both that and the 3k NAM have 3' at IPT (via Kuchera). Huge difference in the York/LNS realm though. That's going to be something to watch today which model wins with the thermals. Heck the 3k NAM got sleet all the way to KAOO on a huge surge of >0ºC 850mb temps, that's probably not going to happen. York and Lancaster probably aren't quite going to get to 20+ either as there should be some mixing. Given already solid establishment of cold air at 925mb and below via the Canadian high, I still feel most mixing is going to be in the form of sleet north of the mason-dixon. 

@Eskimo Joe mentioned that temps in Baltimore County are lower than forecast, so that's gotta be a good sign for those of us closer to the Mason/Dixon since Baltimore is generally "upstream" of the expected warm air.

 

Wonder if that temp delta is true for Port Deposit and Wilmington, too.

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3 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

@Eskimo Joe mentioned that temps in Baltimore County are lower than forecast, so that's gotta be a good sign for those of us closer to the Mason/Dixon since Baltimore is "upstream" of the expected warm air.

That is good.

I'm watching the sleet line on radar...it's JUST south of the Potomac right now. More than anything else including ground temps, I'll be watching that line advance north this afternoon. 

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Just now, canderson said:

Big wreck on 581 east (it's closed) would confirm this. 

wE wErE ReFeRRinG tO sNoW, nOt PoThOLeS aNd SiNKhoLeS

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Hello All...just joined the site and looking forward to an exciting winter season!   I'm in the mountains just southwest of Hazleton @ 1800' on the Luzerne/Schuylkill border.  Snowing steady now and roads are already snow covered.       

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13 minutes ago, paweather said:

The good thing per MA forum obs, most of Maryland is all snow including DC. Mix is down south in VA. 

 

I wouldn't expect the mixing threat to materialize until the offshore low really picks up steam, so not sure that's a valid reference point (unless it differs significantly from model guidance)

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