Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 UK is jacked. Up to 1.5" QPF here, northern folks get into it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think the gradient is going to be a lot sharper than this between the 2" and 8" areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The GFS basically matched its output with that of the Euro cuz it was wrong all alongSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: UK is jacked. Up to 1.5" QPF here, northern folks get into it now. Looks about right, Oswego county snow dome in effect, looks like freak could be the cutoff..1"-3" for kbuf CWA seems like a good call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: I think the gradient is going to be a lot sharper than this between the 2" and 8" areas. I predict you'll be seeing yellow spots along the south shore areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: It's not really"halting" , you are just going to see green turn into blues lol Well at least for here.. Oh...lots of practice with that already..."thanks lake effect bands" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Radar starting to fill in around the BUF donut hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I just checked on the first panel of the 12z run and it is way off the current obs...example it has all of southern Ohio in rain...current obs moderate snow at Cincinnati and all of southeastern Ohio...the shield of precip is much wider at this time vs what is pictured in the models...I’m not puking positive as my wife says but I do think this is a nowcast scenario and models should be treated with caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Current radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Current radar.. Match that with the current model outputs...if you could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: If it makes it before the model has it getting here, then it's game on, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes. If the models are overdoing the dry air, we could do much better. May be tough those, as dry air has ruined many a good system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Match that with the current model outputs...if you could I was just thinking how putrid the radar looks especially in the western areas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Ukmet has 12 inches on monroe county shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, vortmax said: I predict you'll be seeing yellow spots along the south shore areas... Hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I was just thinking how putrid the radar looks especially in the western areas lol. Lol whatever you see it’s more than the model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ukmet has 12 inches on monroe county shore Show it! Plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 This is at 10 to one. So figure 15 to one with Temps and lake effect. So atleast the idea is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Show it! Plz Ukie. Euro looks a bit better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just checked the noon observations versus the nam's dew point prod at noon... Northern New York State's dew points are a few degrees higher than what is progged...ie...it's bit more moist than what the 12z nam depicted.....by a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Gives roc .5 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Watch. BUF will start to up the totals along the S. Shore on their map...and hoist WWAs (at least, as Tim said). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 European FWIW..0.4" LE for kbuf, Kroc..0.5" for ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro is not picking up lake effect very well. Never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 When you compare the EURO to its previous runs, it has made marked move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: You can see the fighting of dry air in Oswego county lol Eventually it will make it.. If only more west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: When you compare the EURO to its previous runs, it has made marked move north. Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro is not picking up lake effect very well. Never does. Which is surprising considering its resolution..Not that I know much about that lol But lower resolution models like the ukmet and Canadian pick up on it a lot better..It's run at 9km compared to the rgem 10km, something must be missing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I’ll do fine, but ukie and euro have me a bit worried about the lighter dry and the deform pushing farther N of me in Lewisburg. That’d be better for you farther NW people. Rgem kind of hinted at it too. Gonna be fun to see who sits in the middle of that zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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