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Dec 16-17 Storm OBS Thread


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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 

12zimage.thumb.png.4bd050c38a47a09ca1f7201307a978cf.png6z

image.thumb.png.b9619c280dc9458f196733bc09c1ae5a.pngIt’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore

Definitely - the models are starting to align their inits with reality (radar trends, upper and mid levels), which seem further west to me. I think the RAP has the best handle on the current initialization. The sooner we can moisten this dry air, the better.

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Gfs actually moved the axis of precip nw by a good jump. 

12zimage.thumb.png.4bd050c38a47a09ca1f7201307a978cf.png6z

image.thumb.png.b9619c280dc9458f196733bc09c1ae5a.pngIt’s rare to see such a big change this close. Especially in the more bullish direction. I think we are just wish casting but I hope King is right and we see some over performances. I think Tim and Vort are right in that we should see some enhancement on south shore

There will definitely be enhancement on south shore, likely adds another 1-3" on top of the totals. 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

A lot of 1” at KBUF I’m curious with a .2” to .3” of liquid how that’s going to happen, negative nancies!

Because I don't believe you're getting .2 or .3 of liquid equivalent, lol.  

I also should have bumped ROC to 3", but I guess I need to be consistent with my pessimism on this event...bah humbug.  I wish I didnt have to be like this.  

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10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Downsloping off the Berkshires?

After living in the area for about 20 years, I have been surprised at how little this happens.  It takes a very strong and persistent east wind to downslope here in a nor'easter.  The more typical spots for downsloping are a little east and northeast of ALB.  Parts of eastern Rensselaer County as well as Washington County mostly (along with parts of Southern VT).  Albany's average snow isn't too different than Worcester further east, despite being much lower in elevation.  ALB's issues the past several years have had more to do with storm track than any kind of terrain issues.  We definitely do better in the hills west of ALB (especially early and late season), but that goes for just about anyplace that has higher elevation areas.

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Because I don't believe you're getting .2 or .3 of liquid equivalent, lol.  

I also should have bumped ROC to 3", but I guess I need to be consistent with my pessimism on this event...bah humbug.  I wish I didnt have to be like this.  
Your like this with every event, lol, but ur the voice of reason for us super weenies,



Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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