Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[NJsnow89]

Mainly a rain threat. Not sure what everyone is seeing. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Mainly a rain threat. Not sure what everyone is seeing. 

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Mainly a rain threat. Not sure what everyone is seeing. 

174 hours out and thats your call ?

[MJO812]

Geps is a long duration event. Colder than the op.

[Franklin0529]

Maybe for NE

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Maybe for NE

You are really giving up on an event 180 hours out ?

[Franklin0529]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You are really giving up on an event 180 hours out ?

Yes. There is no cold air. Maybe some wrap around snow. The surface is torched 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yes. There is no cold air. Maybe some wrap around snow. The surface is torched 

Trolling right ?

[MJO812]

Big storm on the euro

Alot of snow inland with sleet and snow for the coast. 

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning all,   My morning update on this thread. I probably won't comment again til Friday.  My primary dates of interest for wintry precip elements in the NYC forum are Monday the 14th, Wednesday the 16th and Friday the 18th. All dates have possibilities and I suspect will have qpf.  The jet stream will be just to our south throughout. In addition there will be 3 southern stream short waves to monitor which should have qpf impact here and a NEAR 50/50 500 MB low  will be developing mid and late week (actually closer to 55N, 50W).  Thinking the primary date of concern for snow here is Wednesday the 16th, but let me begin with this coming Monday the 14th. 

When you look at the models,  It doesn't look much qpf with the front on the 13th, at the expense of a trailing short wave in the lower Mississippi Valley, that currently is modeled mostly to our south.  However, if it trends a little north, wintry precip could easily occur on it's northern fringe-just north of NYC. This would be a minor event, at worst, if my impression of what will happen is correct.  This Monday event is my lowest confidence, but the GEFS is flagging decent qpf just to our south. NAEFS image attached.

The 16th event to me is clearly cold enough for snow and ice, even down to NYC.  BUT, given that it's at D7 and that modeling could be too cold (sfc pressure too low on the presented ensemble for 00z/17), I have to leave open the door for all rain NYC-LI and s of I80 in NJ.   I've added a number of NAEFS graphics including small qpf, cold enough 1000-500 thickness, Surface pressure.

Later the 18th is flagged as well.  I think that one in part depends on what happens the 16th- If the 16th ends up as strong as the 00z/10 ECMWF op run, then the 18th probably is delayed or suppressed- however if we end up with a 1000MB surface low just to the south of LI next Wednesday evening,  then the next southern steamer has a chance. 

Regarding the 00z/10 ECMWF op... I'm recommending tempering the amounts seen (especially the whopping Kuchera). Just too early and how often do those huge values verify at D7?  I have added the 10 to 1 ratio EPS which looks like a reasonable start to me, realizing the southern edge amounts could fall as rain and make snowfall nil.  I do not expect the EPS amounts to disappear I84 northward but what I expect and reality could be wrong..

Still, I have above average confidence that a wintry event of some sort is coming to the northeast USA the middle of next week, whether NYC/LI are involved is the most uncertain and could end up just wet and windy. Let's monitor. 542A/10

[Heisy]

5 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yes. There is no cold air. Maybe some wrap around snow. The surface is torched 

Yeah on a OP model 7 days out...we have a block and a potential 50/50. This is the best setup of the season so far. It actually has the ingredients. It could end up rain, but I think it trends colder and farther south right now. Could be dead wrong but we’ll see. Regardless, first legit winter storm to track imo.

[NEG NAO]

I find it odd on the 0Z Euro that the center of LP goes from the FLA panhandle to the Virginia capes in a 6 hour timespan between hours 156 -162 .  too fast or a quick transfer of energy ??? The HP to the north seems to be holding its own in strength at 1033 and not moving out east northeast . We just need continuity in the model runs - once the EURO locks into a solution run after run confidence grows. Another thing to still consider is water temps - still on the warm side upper 40's - low 50's

[eduggs]

The ICON and Parallel GFS are pretty far NW with the precipitation associated with the wave on the 14th. GEFS and NAEFS show some decent spread to the NW of the mean, and particularly compared to the operational GFS depiction. Could be a sneaky event while everyone is looking ahead to something bigger.  Great summary Walt.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The ICON and Parallel GFS are pretty far NW with the precipitation associated with the wave on the 14th. GEFS and NAEFS show some decent spread to the NW of the mean, and particularly compared to the operational GFS depiction. Could be a sneaky event while everyone is looking ahead to something bigger.  Great summary Walt.

Para for wave 1 and 2

[Allsnow]

Beautiful 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Beautiful 

Nice banana  high to the north

[romba]

I think the Para GFS has had more head-fakes than the original.

[SnoSki14]

My worry is that the collapse of the PNA could cause the storm to cut more inland and that we have a marginal airmass in place. 

We got a coastal track with the last storm due to the +PNA but had little cold air.

There'll be more cold this time around but no PNA. Will the Atlantic blocking be strong enough to negate it. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

My worry is that the collapse of the PNA could cause the storm to cut more inland and that we have a marginal airmass in place. 

We got a coastal track with the last storm due to the +PNA but had little cold air.

There'll be more cold this time around but no PNA. Will the Atlantic blocking be strong enough to negate it. 

I’m no fan of the ridge east of Hawaii-it would cause lower heights out West than we want. It could lead to a situation where the low tries to cut and we have to hope the blocking can force a transfer to an offshore system in time which usually isn’t the case here. That could mean snow to rain near the coast and more snow further north like the I-90 corridor. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is slightly more amplified with wave 1 and wave 2 looks good. I'm loving the highs in Canada. 

[MJO812]

Oh my gfs lol

[SnowLover22]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is slightly more amplified with wave 1 and wave 2 looks good. I'm loving the highs in Canada. 

you will love the GFS

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

you will love the GFS

[Allsnow]

The high position and pna spike is so key to this evolution. Reminds me of December 2002

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

If you don’t have the high we have a rainstorm...that simple 

[SnowLover22]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

all set for winter if that happened lol

[romba]

Canadian says No

[White Gorilla]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Nice to look at.