Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday. Yes, and I really like where we are sitting in the LSV. The bullseye keeps moving north & south, but we have stayed very much in the game the last couple of days. Hopefully we are digging out from the early week storm while tracking the late week opportunity! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAG5035 Posted January 21 An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pawatch Posted January 21 10 hours ago, MAG5035 said: An actual legit clear and cold night here tonight with a bit of snow on the ground. 16ºF currently, probably coldest night of the winter so far. We hit 21 degrees this morning, not the coldest we had this winter but still cold. Blizz keep the maps coming...we're going to hit one of these. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21 The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event for the southern half of CTP. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21 The 0z Euro & EPS remained steady for this potential storm for CTP. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS had the best run yet for this event for the southern half of CTP. This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours edit : I could see it slipping away with the euro you just posted Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: This is the trend we need in the days leading into the storm. With this type of setup, there always seems to be a late shift north with the boundary, cold press, etc. I’d love to be on the northern edge of the goods and let the models bring it north the last 48 hours I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ahoff Posted January 21 9 hours ago, paweather said: Another 7 days to 10 days. Sorry over it. I know it's a ways out, I'm just saying if it would work out that way, I'd be okay with it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm Posted January 21 I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 21 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Totally agree. Much rather be on northern fringe vs southern fringe. Southern fringe is almost always a kiss of death. . +1 with both of you and trainer. Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me. Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ahoff Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro & EPS remained steady for this potential storm for CTP. Really not liking the Euro trends for my area. Keeps putting less and less snow out, to the point that southern Allegheny County has 0 snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 2 storms still in tact on the GFS for next week: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm Posted January 21 Man, I really like that 2nd storm. That could be a humdinger of a storm. . 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21 Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21 Just now, Superstorm said: Man, I really like that 2nd storm. That could be a humdinger of a storm. . Agreed, more upside with that the first event. Though...given how things have been, I'm not looking past Monday/Tuesday and laying all my eggs on storm #2. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. I was actually thinking the same thing. That low off the SC coast has such a moisture fetch to the north. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 Maybe a 31st storm. Looks warm a bit for now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAG5035 Posted January 21 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts. The primary low with that is associated with that comes up the Ohio River towards western PA and the pattern alignment forces the secondary southeast off the Carolina coast and then eastward away from the coast. You can see how the 500mb low arcs from CO to WI, then gets blocked and forced down through PA and then southeast off the Carolina coast where the coastal storm eventually deepens rapidly. Not a suppressed pattern in the sense that the US is overwhelmed with cold air. At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 21 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: At any rate, gotta dispatch these threats one at a time though. This one slated for Monday/Tues is getting close to the short range and it wasn't a slouch on the GFS either with a 10+ bullseye in SC PA. Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though. Agreed, cannot wait to get in the NAM range. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 I also think the January 31st storm is something to watch. 3 storms before the pattern looks to warm up. Hope not long. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21 27 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Both GFS and CMC deliver the goods and are starting to narrow goalposts enough to suggest we are inside them. I'd rather be on Euro side vs GFS/CMC sides of best snows, but a compromise (here in LSV) would do us just fine. Hoping posts continue to narrow from here on in as we are inside 5 days. Would feel better if it were 2-3 though. The GFS has been literally over the east coast with the upcoming storm. It inspires zero confidence...I mean zero. People poop on the NAM but the GFS right now is laughable. The CMC seems to be doing a little better - maybe not Euro like, but model goalposts seem to be narrowing. The Euro hasn't been it's hallowed self lately and the CMC seems to be getting better. We'll see what happens soon enough. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The GFS has been literally over the east coast with the upcoming storm. It inspires zero confidence...I mean zero. People poop on the NAM but the GFS right now is laughable. The CMC seems to be doing a little better - maybe not Euro like, but model goalposts seem to be narrowing. The Euro hasn't been it's hallowed self lately and the CMC seems to be getting better. We'll see what happens soon enough. At least it was a good run today. LOL, totally agree though. Can't wait for the EURO returns today. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Atomixwx Posted January 21 Good to see CTP is starting to discuss Monday's alleged event with infographs. I guess it's probably time to log back in for a few days, huh? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm Posted January 21 2nd Storm is close to being a big storm.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: Good to see CTP is starting to discuss Monday's alleged event with infographs. I guess it's probably time to log back in for a few days, huh? Welcome Back! Euro looks good. Good 12z runs all together. Time to get ready for a couple of weeks of winter weather instead of me tracking clouds and sun. :-) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canderson Posted January 21 Wait we're really going to have a possible storm Monday? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
