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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Winter 2020 - Warm never a chance.

Winter 2021 -  -Nao for the first time in a zillion. And never a chance. 
 

will there ever be a in between winter? 

LOL. So much for a -NAO

Shortened the abbreviation.

-NO

 

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and to further understand my concern.  Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus.  Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon.  GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days.  Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.  

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

Yeah I know, but if you look at the "blocking" for next week, there's not much when we need it (LSV anyway) and our thermals are marginally ok (as of 12z's).  Not sure i feel confident we are safe down here.  Seeing CMC AND EURO come north scares me as were still 5 days out.  We needed them to hold for another day or so for me to be able to sleep well wrt this event.  

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The December event was a bit more straight-forward and there wasn't an established strong blocking yet at that point. This is par for the course with models trying to handle strong blocking and confluence.   

With regards to the next event, with that deep trough in the west I don't think the storm is going to get stuffed south. The wave coming out is going to be shooting from the trough in the west under the block toward the other trough off the East Coast and how much the heights build in between is going to be important. Look at the rest of the model suite today, we're back to an attempt at cutting and wintry mix in both the Euro and Canadian. Canadian forces a secondary before the primary really gets above our latitude but Euro takes the primary to Cleveland with a secondary. Mid level features (850/700mb) are just a bit too far NW this go around on these models, we have to keep them just under us to get us a primarily frozen event (snow, perhaps some sleet). We continue to alternate these solutions, good thing there's a lot of time yet. 

Thanks Mag. I hope as we get closer will come up with a solution and keep it. 

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You certainly see the NWS confidence level next week with even the Partly Sunny chance of snow for Tuesday. :D

Monday
A chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

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Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date.

Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs?


.

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2 hours ago, paweather said:

JB hyped it, I should not have posted that. Sorry forum I may have jinxed next week. :weep: 

No need to apologize to me... :lol:

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5 hours ago, paweather said:

Where is Showmethesnow I need that 20 page write up to just dream about possibilities. 

Sorry :P Been that kind of month.

image.jpeg

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Pics dont do it justice but it was nearly impossible to drive in this band of snow from this morning.

Also had a lightning flash.

IMG_20210120_055002.jpg

IMG_20210120_054952.jpg

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3 hours ago, paweather said:

JB hyped it, I should not have posted that. Sorry forum I may have jinxed next week. :weep: 

No need to apologize...

The 12z Euro & EPS said that we should buckle up for a very busy winter storm week next week!

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Is there a website that archives NHS forcast each day. Like if I wanted to go back to 1/20/1995 for example, and find the NHS 3 or 5 day forecast on that date.

Is there a site (pay is fine) that provides historical model run data at good resolution so that I could say pull up the forcast tempature, qpf, snow on each model run for the past 6 months at at least 24 hour increments for Harrisburg for the euro or gfs?


.

I’ve hunted for one several times to no avail. 

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1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

Pics dont do it justice but it was nearly impossible to drive in this band of snow from this morning.

Also had a lightning flash.

 

 

Was that in Houtzdale again?

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51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No need to apologize...

The 12z Euro & EPS said that we should buckle up for a very busy winter storm week next week!

The 12z EPS still likes the idea of the early next week low tracking to the Ohio Valley & then transferring off of the Mid Atlantic coast.

 

6671B511-AFA1-4894-A698-A50951696067.png

20BF3AD8-D2BD-44DC-A6E1-82E723F2CF20.png

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The bottom line is that next week is loaded with potential. We have the chance to have a great week of winter weather with 2 storm opportunities.

Here are the combined 2 event snow total 12z Euro maps for next week in 10-1 and Kuchera ratio.

I would be thrilled with half of this! 

687F7854-C23B-4BB9-B4F1-4EE790BE26AF.png

124DBE6F-3F26-4189-8FBE-CFB8170EBCEB.png

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The 12z EPS was on board with all of the potential of the Euro Op run.

Here is the EPS 15 day total snow! It was not long ago that this map was consistently showing around 3 inches for the 15 days. The last couple of days we have been near 8 inches on these maps, and today most of CTP is over 10 inches of snow.
Awesome signal for the 15 day map!

B6F7812B-8CD2-40A6-9E04-D32C23377A48.png

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The next best part of the 12z Euro Op run was the chance for a second winter storm later in the week on next Thursday into Friday.

 

F7E5A67C-5EAD-48F6-B996-6B8257FC6E7A.png

2B2D60EF-2C3D-4FD7-BA4A-7944741B4C36.png

9F539A2C-9270-49B6-A550-FC528452073F.png

I’d take a heartbreaking Monday storm for this beauty later in the week.

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