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George BM

December Discobs 2020

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Sure seems like many of us will see flakes flying early Christmas morning...not talking accumulations but snow in the air plus cold temps seem like a solid bet. If Santa brings me my big wheel it might be a little chilly riding but I'm gonna 

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sure seems like many of us will see flakes flying early Christmas morning...not talking accumulations but snow in the air plus cold temps seem like a solid bet. If Santa brings me my big wheel it might be a little chilly riding but I'm gonna 

I wish I still had my Huffy green machine big wheel :scooter:

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I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.

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Mountains have a flash flood watch tomorrow and winter storm watch tomorrow night/Friday.  There was at least 6-7” snowpack when I left on Monday + 5-6” fresh snow this week...could definitely lead to flooding problems tomorrow with all that rain/rapid snow melt.

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54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.

Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out.....

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06Z 12k NAM has 3.62" of liquid falling tomorrow at MRB.  Ends as a dusting of snow.  Gotta love the NAM in its wheelhouse.

06Z GFS drops a little over an inch of snow accumulation at the end after an inch of rain.

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8 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out.....

Euro has it too actually...

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.

Yeah I mentioned this in the banter thread after the 18z GFS run yesterday. Had a nice band all the way to the coast. Just missed my yard by a few miles verbatim.

Maybe the Mesos will pin down the exact location over the next several runs- or take it away lol.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has it too actually...

850s haven’t crashed through the area as of early Christmas morning so the 6z Euro ends with some light snow west of Carroll county.

image.thumb.png.28fee1d9a2ec09197f86f2f6e8fb5cbd.png

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It blows my mind that models are pinning a 85kt 85H wind max over NE MD on Thursday evening. Someone is going to walk with 2.5-3" of rain easily with this system. Hopefully no Christmas flooding at play, although I think parts of Carroll on west are under that gun. 

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And there it is...

 

509 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of DC...Maryland and Virginia, including the following
  areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel,
  Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and
  Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore,
  Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince
  Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys. In
  Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Culpeper,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson,
  Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park,
  Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and
  Western Loudoun.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night

* One and half to two and half inches of rain are expected Thursday
  afternoon and Thursday night. This is expected to result in flash
  flooding of small streams and creeks and possible river flooding.

$$

LFR

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

If mby gets 2"+ of rain definitely will lead to some flooding.  Still snow pack and piles.  Have to see what melts today .

still hanging on here though grass is showing where the dogs have made tracks. womp womp. 

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16 hours ago, chris21 said:

Do you find NWS Pitt has issues forecasting for Canaan valley? The current forecast has no precipitation for Friday (almost every time I’ve visited Canaan in the winter, NWS Pitt has underdone the amounts). Charleston seems to do a better job with Snowshoe.

Yes, CRW does seem to do better than Pitt.  When there is a significant difference in their forecasts for the highlands, I rely more on CRW.

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44 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm just waiting for the usual suspects to chime in that the temp drop along the front is starting to not look too impressive. 40's on Christmas!!!

It will go in the books as warm. Probably 50s if not 60s for the morning "high".

Front looks legit though. Probably wont hit freezing most places on Saturday.

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I’ve thrown some shade... so better make my forecast. Given the wind direction and the depth of the cold, I’m forecasting 8-12 for Snowshoe and Canaan through Saturday. I think upslope will continue into Saturday. 

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While it's a bit unclear how much precip will linger immediately behind the front (for a brief period of sleet or snow early Christmas morning in the DC metro area), there may be more hope for a period of snow showers during Christmas Day as the upper trough axis swings through, and low-level lapse rates steepen.    There is a very weak signal in the NAM nest, but there is a smack-you-in-the-face-with-a-small-snowball signal in the 18z HRRR.      

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NAM w a nice precip max over the areas still holding onto snow. Before it’s obliterated. Ski areas....especially south of deep creek starting to lock in on a wind whipped 4-8” snowfall.

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35 minutes ago, high risk said:

While it's a bit unclear how much precip will linger immediately behind the front (for a brief period of sleet or snow early Christmas morning in the DC metro area), there may be more hope for a period of snow showers during Christmas Day as the upper trough axis swings through, and low-level lapse rates steepen.    There is a very weak signal in the NAM nest, but there is a smack-you-in-the-face-with-a-small-snowball signal in the 18z HRRR.      

Surprised there's not more action in here . A very dynamic 24 to 36 hours lining up.  Hrrr 18z also is a flooding rain event for many with 3-5" numerous locals verbatim.  Still snowpack here . Icon lays down 5 inch rain amounts in Pa where 15-30" fell past week . 

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Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening.

Might have to do a flizzard chase.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening.

Might have to do a flizzard chase.

Need a north trend.  

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