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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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32 minutes ago, Stash said:

Things look good for at least a moderate snowfall out this way, but there are oddly few of us in ENY on here.  Meaning east of Utica, and in the Albany-Glens Falls corridor.   I think I remember there being more of us in the old Eastern US weather board.  There's little point in celebrating alone, lol.  ALB, Saratoga, and the eastern Mohawk Valley down to BGM look to do OK, as far as Upstate is concerned.  Maybe areas up to the Thruway corridor can hopefully get something decent out of it too.

I'm up near the Albany area for this storm...I think it will be better here than where I'd usually be, along I95 in MD! My main concern is if the secondary mid-level (~700-mb) band stays just south of ALB, and we're stuck in the subsidence zone of the circulation during the period of heaviest snow.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Down Hill because of Tug Hill. Change your username tug. :lol:

Hah! I tried, but it said I couldn't! It said it had been changed too recently.

Perhaps I'll change it to Yoursnowisdoomed!Matt 

  • Haha 2

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3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

I'm up near the Albany area for this storm...I think it will be better here than where I'd usually be, along I95 in MD! My main concern is if the secondary mid-level (~700-mb) band stays just south of ALB, and we're stuck in the subsidence zone of the circulation during the period of heaviest snow.

mid level warming down near your area of mid-atl is why i went lower with my snowfall estimates for KMDT and KABE in my snowfall contest predictions (still near a foot there).  I think that is shown on various NAM and Euro panels.   I'm banking on a similar effect and/or just a warming surface on easterly flow to keep NYC>LI>SNE amounts lower also.  Though i may have over did it (2-6" generally down there).  At least around my place, the dreaded "rice snow" won't be an issue as only 2-3" likely, which is basically a non-event IMBY.

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I think people have talked about this before...6Z and 18Z runs seem to initialize differently from the 00Z and 12Z. I have noticed 6Z and 18Z have been more north than the 0Z and 12Z runs.

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If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble?

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble?

All eyes on the primary low. This is where the surprises come from. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Should we make a new thread for reporting on this event, or not worthy? We can keep this one focused on upcoming events/pattern?

I think it’s worth it to separate them for nowcasting and obs, that way we can still snow shame Matt on this thread and put our paltry totals on the other!!! Win win

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event.

image.thumb.png.09b2e4569b6a503b16955f8e50d07ac3.png

image.thumb.png.817f885a872ae5dea8daae1a8629efcb.png

If that were to come to fruition it would rival ‘85, and 2000

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event.

image.thumb.png.09b2e4569b6a503b16955f8e50d07ac3.png

image.thumb.png.817f885a872ae5dea8daae1a8629efcb.png

Nice looks for sure from around the 24-28 for us.  Not holding my breath but hey we finally got something to watch here!  

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