LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 GFS parallel handled this pretty well on Sunday!!! And were close to my thoughts then. A little overdone on the northern fringes. On 12/13/2020 at 9:32 AM, LakeEffectKing said: Hey all. IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels. The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM. I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE. 00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 On to Xmas in one weeks time and the Euro would bring the goods for a white Christmas with a storm moving up a front that passes us the day before, and behind it about 2 days later a SW lake event...only 40 more run s to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: On to Xmas in one weeks time and the Euro would bring the goods for a white Christmas with a storm moving up a front that passes us the day before, and behind it about 2 days later a SW lake event...only 40 more run s to go... Lets hope the Euro is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I think the ICON did pretty good as well as the EURO but the GFS, as was expected, gets a big fat F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I think the ICON did pretty good as well as the EURO but the GFS, as was expected, gets a big fat F! Glancing over all the gfsv16 model runs prior to the storm, It certainly seemed to handle the system much better than the current GFS version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The reason I was impressed with the ICON particularly was because it even picked up on the amount of dry air that would ultimately end up ruining what would of been a memorable event for the Scranton area and that was the dry air infiltration in which none of the other Global models were even close with, so a great pick up on the ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Looks like a active period starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Nice little Lake effect day 4/5.. GGEM is pure porn at the end of its run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nice little Lake effect day 4/5.. GGEM is pure porn at the end of its run.. It actually performed the best with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: There is definitely a storm signal on all globals...question is what it will look like and where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Moving in 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Need 2016-2017 back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Moving in 1 hour You're a quick mover. Took me 2 days to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:21 PM, wolfie09 said: Actually looks a little better for roc on PW.. this was by far the best model run for this storm, 78 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 More than half my stuff is in a pods storage unit..I didn't even fully unpack from Altmar..I knew it was temporary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Most globals have a AFrontal passage followed by LES on W-WNW winds which lasts into Saturday and some cases into Sunday. The GGEM is the only model currently showing a wound up system but its a week away so no sense in even talking about it just yet. We wait for Sundays rn/sn mix but at least temps stay in the 30's throughout the upcoming weekend and week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Give me that PIT --> ALB track plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Yeah the euro is a blank canvas...nothing like this at all...in fact nothing at all after a cold frontal passage before Xmas...these models are really struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: That system on the 12z has vaporized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Christmas miracle? Lol European tries to get some LES going at times but it's not the best when it comes to that lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Christmas miracle? Lol European tries to get some LES going at times but it's not the best when it comes to that lol.. And it’s on-a west wind...not favorable for 98% of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ukmet is closer to the Canadian with LES potential day 4-5..We wait.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: And it’s on-a west wind...not favorable for 98% of the forum 99% I'm the 1 percenter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 European does try to get some SW flow going..See how this materializes the next week or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 It’s definitely something to keep an eye on but is awfully progressive, where the 00z from this am or the 12z yesterday showed a long lasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The new radar site from the NWS is hot garbage. I had been fearing this upgrade. It's such a dumbed down product now. Give me raw ****ing radar data damnit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sad storm for me. 0.2 inches lol mostly virga. Congrats to the rest. Waiting for the northern Adirondack special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The new radar site from the NWS is hot garbage. I had been fearing this upgrade. It's such a dumbed down product now. Give me raw ****ing radar data damnit Yeah its really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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