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Upstate/Eastern New York


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GFS parallel handled this pretty well on Sunday!!!  And were close to my thoughts then.  A little overdone on the northern fringes.

 

On 12/13/2020 at 9:32 AM, LakeEffectKing said:

Hey all.

IMO, as has been discussed a bit earlier and needs to be emphasized, for much of Upstate NY, the exact track of the slp is less important than the evolution of the mid and upper level features, particularly at the h850 and h700 levels.

The models currently indicating a more favorable set up with these features for our area is euro ensemble mean, Icon, para GFS, and probably extrapolated NAM.

I like where we are right now, particularly BGM, SYR and points SE.  

00z Parallel GFS "feels" like a nice candidate for verification.

image.thumb.png.307deea0b0f49b8b1518853a4b182014.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

On to Xmas in one weeks time and the Euro would bring the goods for a white Christmas with a storm moving up a front that passes us the day before, and behind it about 2 days later a SW lake event...only 40 more run s to go...

Lets hope the Euro is right!

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The reason I was impressed with the ICON particularly was because it even picked up on the amount of dry air that would ultimately end up ruining what would of been a memorable event for the Scranton area and that was the dry air infiltration in which none of the other Global models were even close with, so a great pick up on the ICON!

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Most globals have a AFrontal passage followed by LES on W-WNW winds which lasts into Saturday and some cases into Sunday.  The GGEM is the only model currently showing a wound up system but its a week away so no sense in even talking about it just yet. We wait for Sundays rn/sn mix but at least temps stay in the 30's throughout the upcoming weekend and week. 

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