Syrmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: I'm up near the Albany area for this storm...I think it will be better here than where I'd usually be, along I95 in MD! My main concern is if the secondary mid-level (~700-mb) band stays just south of ALB, and we're stuck in the subsidence zone of the circulation during the period of heaviest snow. mid level warming down near your area of mid-atl is why i went lower with my snowfall estimates for KMDT and KABE in my snowfall contest predictions (still near a foot there). I think that is shown on various NAM and Euro panels. I'm banking on a similar effect and/or just a warming surface on easterly flow to keep NYC>LI>SNE amounts lower also. Though i may have over did it (2-6" generally down there). At least around my place, the dreaded "rice snow" won't be an issue as only 2-3" likely, which is basically a non-event IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Buffalo has a nice shield up, no snow allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Snowhole Matt lol...perhaps we should start a forum poll on what the new name should be???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Battle between buffalo and Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Buffalo picked up 1/2" yesterday. Currently at 6.9" on the season and -13.3" below normal on season. December we are at +3.4 for temps. Lake Erie temp is +3 above normal at 42 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think people have talked about this before...6Z and 18Z runs seem to initialize differently from the 00Z and 12Z. I have noticed 6Z and 18Z have been more north than the 0Z and 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buffalo has a nice shield up, no snow allowed. Matt are you here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Matt are you here??? Matts in town today. Brought the snow hole with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Looks like Saturday is going to be a great day of hiking in the Adirondacks. Doing the Santorini ridge, about 17 miles. Should have a decent amount of snow up there too. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble? All eyes on the primary low. This is where the surprises come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Should we make a new thread for reporting on this event, or not worthy? We can keep this one focused on upcoming events/pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should we make a new thread for reporting on this event, or not worthy? We can keep this one focused on upcoming events/pattern? I think it’s worth it to separate them for nowcasting and obs, that way we can still snow shame Matt on this thread and put our paltry totals on the other!!! Win win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54203-dec-16-17-storm-obs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 RGEM is NW again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Lots of activity on the Canadian, medium to LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lots of activity on the Canadian, medium to LR.. Temps still pretty marginal, need that -EPO to kick in later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 @Thinksnow18 mike cejka teasing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Not much but it would give us a white Christmas.. Also some LES Mon/Tues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Long range didn't look that great today, massive changes in overall pattern from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 This makes me soooooo happy to see a broad closed 700mb LP out over Michigan which in turn is pumping moisture warm air up and over a dome of very cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event. If that were to come to fruition it would rival ‘85, and 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18Z Euro anyone as I just wanna see if ir too ticked NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Curious too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event. Nice looks for sure from around the 24-28 for us. Not holding my breath but hey we finally got something to watch here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice looks for sure from around the 24-28 for us. Not holding my breath but hey we finally got something to watch here! Synoptic doesn't do it for me. Hoping for at least 1-2 LES events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Synoptic doesn't do it for me. Hoping for at least 1-2 LES events this year. Feel the same... Remember back in the day when synoptics just freshened up our snowpack in between lake effect storms... those were they days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Is this anyone else here? https://www.facebook.com/1330897592/posts/10225186370429609/? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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