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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

I'm up near the Albany area for this storm...I think it will be better here than where I'd usually be, along I95 in MD! My main concern is if the secondary mid-level (~700-mb) band stays just south of ALB, and we're stuck in the subsidence zone of the circulation during the period of heaviest snow.

mid level warming down near your area of mid-atl is why i went lower with my snowfall estimates for KMDT and KABE in my snowfall contest predictions (still near a foot there).  I think that is shown on various NAM and Euro panels.   I'm banking on a similar effect and/or just a warming surface on easterly flow to keep NYC>LI>SNE amounts lower also.  Though i may have over did it (2-6" generally down there).  At least around my place, the dreaded "rice snow" won't be an issue as only 2-3" likely, which is basically a non-event IMBY.

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble?

All eyes on the primary low. This is where the surprises come from. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Should we make a new thread for reporting on this event, or not worthy? We can keep this one focused on upcoming events/pattern?

I think it’s worth it to separate them for nowcasting and obs, that way we can still snow shame Matt on this thread and put our paltry totals on the other!!! Win win

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event.

image.thumb.png.09b2e4569b6a503b16955f8e50d07ac3.png

image.thumb.png.817f885a872ae5dea8daae1a8629efcb.png

If that were to come to fruition it would rival ‘85, and 2000

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models continue there flip flopping. 18Z long range now show several LES events rotating around with several shortwaves revolving around longwave through. Next weekend is my focus on a possible big time LES event.

image.thumb.png.09b2e4569b6a503b16955f8e50d07ac3.png

image.thumb.png.817f885a872ae5dea8daae1a8629efcb.png

Nice looks for sure from around the 24-28 for us.  Not holding my breath but hey we finally got something to watch here!  

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