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Sub 1000MB sfc low and associated significant hazards Nov 30-Dec 1, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Caution: VERYYYYYYY early and this could end up much less robust than outlined below, if the northern and southern streams don't phase, or phase early enough into a closed LOW somewhere over NYS/PA/OH

wdrag
wdrag

Wont be commenting on this thread til after 530P.  Still looks good to me based on some of the 12z op modeling. EC is my focus late today,. Happy Thanksgiving---

wdrag
wdrag

Good Sunday morning all,  Preparing for a wind event near or just a little under November 15, I think is worthwhile. Model consensus still lacking... but from what I can gather,  I'd prepare

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's freaking Noah's ark weather in Bucks county right now

 

 

We are up to 2.00” on the day.  Have been getting pounded during the past hour.  Lots of lightning including CTG.  Was just out and saw some good CTG strikes close up.  We may not have received the wind but these thunderstorms mean business here.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Numerous 60 mph + gusts across the area. 

Fairfield County...
Stamford                     63 MPH    0131 PM 11/30   CWOP       


New London County...
Groton Airport               61 MPH    0256 PM 11/30   ASOS     


Jackson Heights              61 MPH    0122 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Kew Garden Hills             60 MPH    0115 PM 11/30   NYSM       


Orient                       66 MPH    0216 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  64 MPH    0208 PM 11/30   CWOP                                 
Southold                     61 MPH    0245 PM 11/30   NYSM                 
West Gilgo Beach             61 MPH    0132 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          60 MPH    0153 PM 11/30   ASOS
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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Numerous 60 mph + gusts across the area. 


Fairfield County...
Stamford                     63 MPH    0131 PM 11/30   CWOP       



New London County...
Groton Airport               61 MPH    0256 PM 11/30   ASOS     



Jackson Heights              61 MPH    0122 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Kew Garden Hills             60 MPH    0115 PM 11/30   NYSM       



Orient                       66 MPH    0216 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  64 MPH    0208 PM 11/30   CWOP                                 
Southold                     61 MPH    0245 PM 11/30   NYSM                 
West Gilgo Beach             61 MPH    0132 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          60 MPH    0153 PM 11/30   ASOS

Back in the 90s this would have been a 100k outage event with lots of trees down. Events of this level seem to yearly now. 
the ocean was impressive with the straight onshore flow. Waves were breaking as far out as the eye could see well past any sand bars 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Back in the 90s this would have been a 100k outage event with lots of trees down. Events of this level seem to yearly now. 
the ocean was impressive with the straight onshore flow. Waves were breaking as far out as the eye could see well past any sand bars 

Yes. Wind gusts into the 60s used to do a lot of damage. The weak trees have come down and the trees that are still around are stronger.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
Just now, psv88 said:

Yes. Wind gusts into the 60s used to do a lot of damage. The weak trees have come down and the trees that are still around are stronger.

Yes, that was my marker for power outages and tree damage, but  it's not as bad anymore (of course we dont have leaves on the trees anymore either).  Isaias caused a lot of damage though, but that was 70+....winds that strong will still cause a lot of damage

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Back in the 90s this would have been a 100k outage event with lots of trees down. Events of this level seem to yearly now. 
the ocean was impressive with the straight onshore flow. Waves were breaking as far out as the eye could see well past any sand bars 

More than yearly...we just had an event like this a couple of weeks ago lol

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Numerous 60 mph + gusts across the area. 


Fairfield County...
Stamford                     63 MPH    0131 PM 11/30   CWOP       



New London County...
Groton Airport               61 MPH    0256 PM 11/30   ASOS     



Jackson Heights              61 MPH    0122 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Kew Garden Hills             60 MPH    0115 PM 11/30   NYSM       



Orient                       66 MPH    0216 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  64 MPH    0208 PM 11/30   CWOP                                 
Southold                     61 MPH    0245 PM 11/30   NYSM                 
West Gilgo Beach             61 MPH    0132 PM 11/30   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          60 MPH    0153 PM 11/30   ASOS

Got any reports out of SW Nassau, Chris?  I heard 58 mph at JFK/Inwood?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We are up to 2.00” on the day.  Have been getting pounded during the past hour.  Lots of lightning including CTG.  Was just out and saw some good CTG strikes close up.  We may not have received the wind but these thunderstorms mean business here.

I dont get why the wind didn't hit here since we're all east of the storm track....but tornado warnings were really close.
 

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Intensewind002

Intensewind002

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes. Wind gusts into the 60s used to do a lot of damage. The weak trees have come down and the trees that are still around are stronger.

Yep, only times there are widespread outages on LI now is when gusts approach hurricane force. Not that I'm complaining or anything though lol. Ever since the one-two-three punch of the March 2010 noreaster, Irene, and Sandy, it's been like that

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yep, only times there are widespread outages on LI now is when gusts approach hurricane force. Not that I'm complaining or anything though lol. Ever since the one-two-three punch of the March 2010 noreaster, Irene, and Sandy, it's been like that

yeah dont want power outages lol especially during cold storms.

 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont get why the wind didn't hit here since we're all east of the storm track....but tornado warnings were really close.
 

If you look at the mesoscale models it becomes clearer.  The winds mix down more effectively near the coast due to the lack of obstructions including hills, mountains, trees, structures, etc. Where we are in eastern PA there are landmass related obstructions to our south which impede the ability of the atmosphere to mix down the stronger winds from aloft.  East of here when you look at a map showing where NYC/LI/coastal NJ are situated there is mostly open ocean or low lying coastal areas to their south.  The result is the atmosphere can more effectively mix down those stronger winds from aloft.  If you want to experience stronger winds out here you need elevation.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

If you look at the mesoscale models it becomes clearer.  The winds mix down more effectively near the coast due to the lack of obstructions including hills, mountains, trees, structures, etc. Where we are in eastern PA there are landmass related obstructions to our south which impede the ability of the atmosphere to mix down the stronger winds from aloft.  East of here when you look at a map showing where NYC/LI/coastal NJ are situated there is mostly open ocean or low lying coastal areas to their south.  The result is the atmosphere can more effectively mix down those stronger winds from aloft.  If you want to experience stronger winds out here you need elevation.

But if you go back to the November 15 event, that one had strong winds everywhere, did they come from a different direction?

 

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