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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


EPS has consistently been further East. Will be interesting to see what wins.

16f6afc4f82bb5b1aee3b8c026a2c469.jpg

Sure has...  and its been for several runs as u pointed out . Can't be ignored 

Still around 8 nice hits within the ensembles for western burbs :weenie:

 

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End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty..  Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.

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8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty..  Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.

Eps looks real nice as well to me day 8 through the end . Should be lotssss of tracking in our future .

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46 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty..  Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.

Is the end of a run ever really worth looking at? I'm wondering if it's better to wait for 10 days or like 240 hrs...I mean on hour 384...what can we reasonably glean from that? Possible trends?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Is the end of a run ever really worth looking at? I'm wondering if it's better to wait for 10 days or like 240 hrs...I mean on hour 384...what can we reasonably gleam from that? Possible trends?

I'd rather it look good in the ultra-long range than bad.  I look at it this way: given the known model biases towards cold in the long range, if the long range looks good, it might turn out good, it might turn out bad, it might turn out average.  If the long range looks warm, that is indicative of a strong warm signal.  Of course I'm just referring to consistent runs that move forward in time.  Plenty of times the ultra-long ranges just flip back and forth randomly; just NWP noise.

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is the end of a run ever really worth looking at? I'm wondering if it's better to wait for 10 days or like 240 hrs...I mean on hour 384...what can we reasonably gleam from that? Possible trends?

Obviously, every hour into the future a model runs the less skill it has.  15 day ens runs are good for general ideas, imo.  Just like snow means, and members...useful if used correctly.  No doubt though, beyond day 10 is the general ballpark range...which is why I said I'd like to see it move forward in time.... 

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Some snippets from a very detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon-

 As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, a strong +PNA will develop. This begins over the weekend, then strengthens early to mid next week as an even stronger ridge builds in over the Northwest. This will force a downstream trough over the eastern and southeastern US beginning late in the weekend and likely continuing through most or all of next week, driving colder air into the southern US. Notably, this pattern is very counter to what would normally be expected in a moderate to strong La Nina. But a good reminder that other aspects of intraseasonal forcing can sometimes overcome the dominant global pattern driver. It is also usually an active, stormy pattern for the East Coast.

Sunday night-Wednesday... As mentioned above, active weather is likely for this period. It will be a highly complex evolution as the new pattern takes shape. We will be watching two systems which are likely to begin interacting late in the weekend. One is a Canadian clipper low dropping towards the northern Great Lakes. The other is a robust southern stream wave propagating out of the desert Southwest, supported by an anomalously strong subtropical jet. Guidance has given strong indications for days that these systems are likely to phase over the East. However, as is usually the case, this interaction is likely to be complex, and while the general signal between models is fairly consistent, there are significant differences in details and timing.

By the middle to end of next week, additional unsettled weather is possible as trailing shortwave disturbances rotate into the broader longwave trough in the East. With colder air in place, wintry outcomes may be more favored with time, but given the uncertainty associated with the early week system, changes are likely.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps looks real nice as well to me day 8 through the end . Should be lotssss of tracking in our future .

This look

2AC0133C-0CD6-4E06-858E-F2B30282809E.thumb.png.955aa483823fbee197b6ad1d27ec305e.png

With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically.  I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing.  Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This look

2AC0133C-0CD6-4E06-858E-F2B30282809E.thumb.png.955aa483823fbee197b6ad1d27ec305e.png

With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically.  I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing.  Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs. 

Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This look

2AC0133C-0CD6-4E06-858E-F2B30282809E.thumb.png.955aa483823fbee197b6ad1d27ec305e.png

With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically.  I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing.  Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs. 

are there specific analogs to it being a Nina but the atmosphere looking nothing like that. If so how did we do those years? So I guess the question is are there analogs to us doing well in Nina years because the atmosphere did not respond to what was expected.

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December never looked particularly terrible to be me for the East. Still think it's warm overall, but it's warm + snowy more than warm and boring.

I've been looking hard at 1959 lately - that's a near La Nina with a very warm NE Pacific. There is definitely resemblance to early December 1959 in the current depictions by CPC. I'd say 12/1-12/10 overall looks a lot like 1988 too as currently depicted - both of those years still finish warm in the East but they're much better patterns for snow than a normal warm month would see. I think there are some SE snowstorms or ice storms this month down to I-40, but we'll see.

Dec-1-10-1988.png

Image

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs looks promising at 192 with trailing energy in Texas :weenie:

H5 looked decent but then I peaked at the surface at 232 -250 and it doesn't match up lol.  The surface low is well off the coast and weak .But there's a storm anyway. :D

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45 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time

It's possible I missed some of that...once the big ugly pattern set it I kinda knew it was over and so I checked out pretty much.  I would glance once in a while to see if there was any hope but there were days and days that would go bye without me taking more than a quick glance.  But what I did see was more bad than good even out at range.  

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Not every day. 588 jeez 

 

image.png.69a9e3d1ffc651ebfaa43dc0be4cff9c.png

It seems that should be the holy grail of epic patterns.  Screensaver pattern. 

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45 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

are there specific analogs to it being a Nina but the atmosphere looking nothing like that. If so how did we do those years? So I guess the question is are there analogs to us doing well in Nina years because the atmosphere did not respond to what was expected.

1996 lol 

There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today.  

NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet.  

Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works.  Way too early to draw any conclusions though.  

 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 lol 

There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today.  

NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet.  

Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works.  Way too early to draw any conclusions though.  

 

Don't get sucked in.  Ha ha. Glad to see you posting. How you find the time is a mystery.  I know your busy. We are dealing with some things that normally don't exist. or should I say coexist.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 lol 

There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today.  

NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet.  

Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works.  Way too early to draw any conclusions though.  

 

You have quite bit of knowledge and always seem to be less weenie...How do you think this plays out for December?

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Looking at the 850/2m temp anomaly at 384 on 18z GEFS looks like we need more help.  It’s still mostly above normal just not way above normal.  Just looking at it for trends there is hardly any really cold air in Canada to deliver even with a better h5 look.  Maybe it will evolve over time.  

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Looking at the 850/2m temp anomaly at 384 on 18z GEFS looks like we need more help.  It’s still mostly above normal just not way above normal.  Just looking at it for trends there is hardly any really cold air in Canada to deliver even with a better h5 look.  Maybe it will evolve over time.  

You might wanna focus on something other than the 384 hour forecast 

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lulz... 00z GGEM says no snow for you, while the 00z EURO decides to go with a southern slider (re Dec 4-6).  However, the 850s are cold enough Days 8-10

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