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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Good to see the latest GEFS runs building the NA ridging further NW closer to the classic position in the LR. I figured we would see that adjustment, with so many recent op runs depicting a perfectly placed monster of a west based -NAO. EPS still has the +heights focused a bit too far east but seems to be incrementally improving as well.

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

985 slp over east Pa Xmas day . 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-mslp_anom-8940800.png

I'll take a dynamic rain to frozen Xmas 100 times over before I choose a 65F torch .

Thats  huge difference from the previous run.  That low develops as a trailing low on the front.. previous run it was just some anafront snow.  

I would keep an eye on this one...

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro tries to cut a storm day 9 and block days nope. Forces a transfer from the Great Lakes to off SC lol. 

Yeah it really depends how well this Christmas storm Bombs. As Tom said on another forum the pac is not too good at that time frame so it’s going to depend on the block

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I am starting to get some 2009-10 vibes wrt warming Strat and and Trop over the HL. Pretty close to a SPV split on the latest GEFS, and IIRC there was a strat warming event and a PV split in Dec 2009, which kicked off a severely -AO/NAO winter. Not in that territory, but looking pretty good going forward. 

1608379200-1o31HMGpLwo.png

1608379200-Q3x3tzvLjUo.png

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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am starting to get some 2009-10 vibes wrt warming Strat and and Trop over the HL. Pretty close to a SPV split on the latest GEFS, and IIRC there was a strat warming event and a PV split in Dec 2009, which kicked off a severely -AO/NAO winter. Not in that territory, but looking pretty good going forward. 

1608379200-1o31HMGpLwo.png

1608379200-Q3x3tzvLjUo.png

That winter was a disaster after February 10th though....pass

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