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December 2020 Discussion

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

20201124_Northeast_text.png

Indeed. Though there isn't much severe about the conditions in my backyard.

No more drought here locally but I know that drought monitor takes into account many larger-scale factors such as reservoir and river levels, aquifers, water table, etc. I will say when I am south of the Whites and especially into the Lakes Region it seems drier to me. It has been that way since the mid-summer. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Split flow. Looks fine to me. That’s enough ridging in western Canada. At least for New England.

Split flow with a height max over Hudson is actually pretty damned good. EPS also have a pretty steep +PNA a few days before that so might be some chances in there prior to the 10th. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Split flow. Looks fine to me. That’s enough ridging in western Canada. At least for New England.

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Split flow with a height max over Hudson is actually pretty damned good. EPS also have a pretty steep +PNA a few days before that so might be some chances in there prior to the 10th. 

Yeah, that’s at the very end of the run. I just would have liked to see some higher hgts in Ak. We lost the Aleutian low. But as @ORH_wxman said the pna is nice before the end of the run 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that’s fine by me. No need to be cold and dry up here while it snows in Metuchen.

Angst from mistaking chickens for turkeys?

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember posting that the American teleconnectors were signaling correction event(s) that could come in either one event or a series ... I even said the first would be a transition one, and that the next would have the better odds at a colder profile ... 

Not a  shocker for me.  

It's really like nothing's changed ... and people are impatiently waiting on every model run to given that psychotropic cinema rush.. and their not getting it - haha... 

Just chill ...

Happy T.G. by the way.  word! 

You write novels on here with vocabulary I've never heard...but you use the wrong homophone. :P :)  Just teasing...gave me a chuckle. I teach ELA to 3rd and 4th Graders, so my eyes are drawn to word usage. :) Happy Thanksgiving!

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As a side note, the ridging in AK and what looks to be a sizable -NAO signal on the EPS is interesting. 
I still think it’s going to be after the first week for anything interesting which is how many felt overall. 

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Couple of other good notes. 50MB vortex starts to get a little movement with some warming over the Kamchatka region. There is also a lobe (think trough) that extends into the US. While it doesn't have a instantaneous top down connection, these are good things to have, rather than the vortex all wrapped up and concentric over Asia. 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and EPS definitely are different with how the PNA region looks. Hopefully the EPS can compromise a bit.

Yeah both solutions will provide for chances though I think I’d rather have the GEFS look. A compromise would certainly be pretty solid. 

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As a side note, the ridging in AK and what looks to be a sizable -NAO signal on the EPS is interesting. 
I still think it’s going to be after the first week for anything interesting which is how many felt overall. 

The split flow look in Canada with all that weakness up in Hudson Bay and N Quebec is def interesting on the EPS. It’s often a look we see in major coastal storms. Only issue is that the cold on the EPS is not overly deep so you get a little less margin for error. But choosing between that look and the GEFS is a good “problem” to have.  It certainly beats having a hideous pig vortex up in AK. 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah both solutions will provide for chances though I think I’d rather have the GEFS look. A compromise would certainly be pretty solid. 

The split flow look in Canada with all that weakness up in Hudson Bay and N Quebec is def interesting on the EPS. It’s often a look we see in major coastal storms. Only issue is that the cold on the EPS is not overly deep so you get a little less margin for error. But choosing between that look and the GEFS is a good “problem” to have.  It certainly beats having a hideous pig vortex up in AK. 

Yeah thank God it’s not a choice between a Death Star in AK and ridging out west. Agree with the EPS showing marginal for awhile, but that’s fine. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and EPS definitely are different with how the PNA region looks. Hopefully the EPS can compromise a bit.

Yea, I would not be surprised to see guidance back off some with respect to the PNA ridging. I am actually more confident in the NAOfor once.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

As a side note, the ridging in AK and what looks to be a sizable -NAO signal on the EPS is interesting. 
I still think it’s going to be after the first week for anything interesting which is how many felt overall. 

I agree. Week one is the primer. 

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As this thing comes off the Pacific over British C. up there over the western continental spacing ... and enters the denser more physically realized sounding grid ... it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it has been "over-assessed" the last three or four days of cycles it took to move thru the Pacific net -

For us here, it may not mean much  - I think ... - either way. But a flatter/weaker version of that thing would set up a 'different' ( how so?) downstream Lakes and western OV evolution.

You know ... the long wave spacing has never set very well with me ... how anxious the models are in curling this thing up - even in the coherently fast flow biased GFS this was happening ... - because the flow is/has been systemically velocity rich ...for like 10 f'n years.  It doesn't mean we can't immediately close off a diving S/W into a phasing scenario along 85 W longitude ... but ( to me ) it offers a 'correction vector' for that ending up with longer wave lengths.  Fast super synoptic flows physically machine less closed solutions ... You can learn differential/vector calculus and then run through Navier-Stokes to show how/why... or, you can just think of it as trying to take you car around an off-ramp at 80 mph ... you tend to fish-tail ... if not leave the ramp space roughly tangent to the curve as your car slides sideways across the chopped winter wheat and snow and ice... That's when the blues come on because you don't realize at 1:47 am that those annoying headlights behind you that last several miles was actually a rookie state-trooper's SUV looking to score DUI arrest that'll up his cache on the force and bump 'im off the grave-yard shift.... oh, sorry - anyway..

The laws that govern all motion in the universe are no different.  Wind is an expression of mass motion in the atmosphere... and wind obeys the same rules. It can't go around curves at excessive velocities, or it leaves the curvature(d) surface.  

So the reason I am taking the reader through that ...is not to lord wisdom or 'sound' smart - even though it is dim-wittingly prose(d) - ...it is because I am looking out for their mental well-being.  Because for anyone that needs this cinema of modeling weather charts to derive meaning and joy out of life, it behooves them to have a bit of objective introspection that can protect them from lies   LOL... 

Seriously ... after five some-odd-years of extraordinary hemispheric velocities as a persistent empirical predicament, ...said persistence doesn't lend to the rapidity and "eagerness" of the models to wrap that thing up so soon and vigorously - but you know.... okay, if the flow slows down and the velocities take a backseat, the closing proficiency could make more sense.

All that aside, seems there is a ghostly homage to a bigger/another event in the D9/10 space ... I would watch that period of time. It's not novel to say, no ... Again, these index corrections ( ^ PNA) sometimes parlay aggregate phenomenon - not just one singular scenario.  As we've noted, this PNA mode change rallies through the extended period actually.. taking to or even exceeding the 10th of December to fully realize, and as this unfurls ...the event for D5/6 in the foreground is prooobably not the total story ...

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