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Epsilon - #27 Oct 20- , 2020


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The 27th Atlantic Basin Tropical event of the season is underway.  Impact to the coastal eastern USA is expected to be confined mostly to swells, with heavy seas in the offshore waters developing this week - slowly easing in Epsilon's modeled northeast recurvature and departure this weekend.  Max sustained winds are modeled to eventually be near 80 knots for a time, with seas possibly exceeding 30 feet north and east of the center by Friday or Saturday the 23rd-24th. 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
northwestward motion expected through Thursday.  On the forecast
track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite
imagery this morning.  While an area of convection is near and over
the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic
zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded
extratropical low.  In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery
indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the
southwestern semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates have not
changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity is unchanged at  40 kt.  Epsilon remains a large cyclone
with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the
initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3.  A northward to
northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon
becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central
Atlantic.  Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward
the northwest through about 72 h.  After that time, a deep-layer
trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the
western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the
northeast at an increasing forward speed.  The guidance is in good
agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has
only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the
various consensus models.  On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast.
First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm
sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the
forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h.  Second, while the
overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the
forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned
upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact
with another trough around the 72 h point.  These troughs should
provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may
feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative
factor.  The intensity guidance continues to show gradual
strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models
showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period.
Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon
to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks
from the previous forecast.  Extratropical transition will likely
be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the
end of the forecast period.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week.  While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 25.6N  54.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 26.6N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 27.8N  57.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 28.5N  59.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 29.4N  60.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 30.6N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 31.6N  61.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 33.5N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Looks to be intensifying. Also, FWIW, though SSTs are only running between 27 and 28°C in that region of the Atlantic, upper tropospheric temps are cooler now that we're in mid-to-late October. Epsilon is under an PV- anticyclone that developed out of the old ULL that has cold air aloft. This is driving lapse rates. Should be plenty of fuel and instability for Epsilon to reach hurricane intensity in the coming days. Might overperform and reach Cat 2. Looks like the beginnings of an eyewall developing.5b5a47d04ecf11dd130b511174bd5f0d.gif&key=191669d4e588d65e201e27f078122e9a8ef6a784a05f35e6c74a170f4f478072

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40 minutes ago, Amped said:

992mb  55kt?  It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. 

I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.

 

F8g64Yd.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

It’s improved significantly from the advisory time. This is definitely a hurricane now, probably close to your estimate though that would be a massive pressure fall 

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27 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Lol. If this is what 2020 is like imagine a couple decades from now. Looking forward to Major Hurricane Upsilon’s landfall in the NeoAzores autonomous zone on Trumptember 12th, 2039.  

Considering how many of the islands are sinking and the continued rise in sea level, a couple of decades from now, Trumptembers Upsilon  may have much less land to fall on. As always....

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Hurricane at 11

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on 
satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast 
becoming increasingly symmetric.  Also the eye, which was 
intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better 
defined.  Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with 
a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB.  This is the tenth hurricane 
of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning 
to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading.  The hurricane is 
expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in 
response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and 
northwest.  In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift 
eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the 
north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center 
coming closest to the island in around 48 hours.  In 3 to 4 
days, the  hurricane should turn northward and move through a break 
in the subtropical ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, the 
system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it 
begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies.  The official 
forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction 
and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over 
marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate 
vertical shear during the next day or so.  In 36 to 48 hours, the 
oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very 
low which should limit further intensification.  The official 
intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.  
By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and 
merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be 
extratropical by that time.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time 
it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday.  While 
it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track 
and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are 
possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf 
conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.5N  56.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 29.2N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 29.9N  59.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 31.0N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 32.2N  61.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 33.5N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 34.6N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 38.4N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 44.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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My guess is that the NHC is probably underestimating the intensity currently. Satellite presentation and rather robust circulation suggest true intensity may be more like 80 to possibly 90kts. These rather warm topped/low tropopause storms seem to be prone to being underestimated in intensity like Lee and Ophelia 2017.

b5ad1041-6234-44cb-926c-083e676a8b39.png

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2am adv identical to the 11pm one in pressure and wind

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

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A pretty good storm going now and won't be surprised at further intensification beyond 80KT. Still has surface SST's of 26C enroute at times through the 24th. Following NHC, RAL, AM WX contributions, as well as GEFS probabilistic guidance and the NWW3 operational guidance. 

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Already 30+ foot seas north and east of center and  by Friday.  I expect this to increase (possibly 40 foot significant wave height) with EC gradient generated max WH at least 45 ft near the center and this could be conservative. Here's a picture of OPC analyzed wave heights at 8AM this morning based on ship/buoy reports etc.

Screen_Shot_2020-10-21_at_9_15.43_AM.png

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