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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Still lightly snowing here in Wichita. Should be over in the next hour or so, but we have not made it above zero yet. Headed to -15 overnight.

Ouch. 

Yeah, seems to be working out where we were socked in clouds all day, then look to clear just in time for sunset. Temps are going to crash here tonight!

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1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

18z GFS and v16 not near as far north with precip as the NAM was.  
 

For example, Wichita gets 7” on the NAM, 1” on the GFS.   

Dodge City 8” on NAM and 0 on the GFS.  

I’m puzzled by the discrepancy. My guess is that the NAM has a deeper wave, the GFS has a flatter solution.

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13 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I’m puzzled by the discrepancy. My guess is that the NAM has a deeper wave, the GFS has a flatter solution.

That's pretty much correct. The NAM is more negative tilted with the wave vs the flatter GFS. At hour 30, check out the 700/850 MB winds on the NAM vs the GFS. 

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Sun has broke out and finally jumped above zero. 1.2 degrees on the weather station now. Jumped within the last hour. However, temp will begin crashing shortly. As for the Tuesday storm, I do think it is a subtle difference in how wave ejects. GFS seems to be flatter but is now becoming the outlier as more and more of the HiRes models are coming more in line with the NAM, although maybe not to that extent just yet. Trend is good right now I'd say.

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