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George BM

October Discobs 2020

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Can keeps getting kicked for a cold shot, but it does make sense that we get one at some point late next week or the following week based on the MJO moving into the cold-for-us phases. 

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“High impact weather event” wording no longer in the AFD for long range.  It was fun for a while to imagine what that might be.  

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Desperately need rain here.  Hopefully the big sw dump of energy on guidance will work east for a soaker in the day 7-10 range . This mid upper 70s can take a hike to.

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21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Desperately need rain here.  Hopefully the big sw dump of energy on guidance will work east for a soaker in the day 7-10 range . This mid upper 70s can take a hike to.

Yeah brother.  I got used to fall too early with the September to remember.  30s for lows couple days at my location?  Blasphemy! 

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11 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah brother.  I got used to fall too early with the September to remember.  30s for lows couple days at my location?  Blasphemy! 

Outside of Sunday when we briefly get into a cooler E/NE flow, it wont feel much like fall for at least the next week. The eastern ridge quickly builds back early next week, with warmer temps.

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The guidance continues to forecast lower heights up top on our side of the pole (+AO/NAO) going forward, which is not very conducive to getting cold air delivery into our region. Maybe by the end of next week we see a decent cool down with a flat ridge building in the western US, but that looks pretty iffy.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The guidance continues to forecast lower heights up top on our side of the pole (+AO/NAO) going forward, which is not very conducive to getting cold air delivery into our region. Maybe by the end of next week we see a decent cool down with a flat ridge building in the western US, but that looks pretty iffy.

Ggem never really brings the warm air back after the front moves south Sunday. That’s an outlier solution or now, but we’re in the time of year where wedges erode slower than forecast more often than not. 
 

It does look like we get cool late next week, but looks fairly pedestrian for Halloween. Maybe first freeze for some.

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14 hours ago, BristowWx said:

“High impact weather event” wording no longer in the AFD for long range.  It was fun for a while to imagine what that might be.  

I was wondering what that might have been too -- maybe a severe outbreak, or a heavy rain event with wind?

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Woke up to dense fog in New Windsor, but could see stars. Always neat to experience that.

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37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

but could see stars

Me too. I actually saw a meteor from the Orionid around 5:15 am.....

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13 minutes ago, toolsheds said:
51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

but could see stars

Me too. I actually saw a meteor from the Orionid around 5:15 am.....

Me three. I took a 53 minute walk this morning (5:11am - 6:04am). I saw the stars, Mars and Venus through the fog like you two. But probably looked down the one moment the meteor went by. :arrowhead: Mars disappeared low in the western sky into the fog before I got back.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Another day around 80 with dewpoints in the 60s. :thumbsdown:

Cheer up, soon we'll be in the 50s for Christmas.

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

No kidding. I don't think I've seen a thicker fog here in the 10 years I've worked in downtown Baltimore. This is unreal.

was pretty thick earlier, could barely see our neighbors houses, both front and backyards. then the sun popped out a bit, fog cleared.. and then more fog rolled back in. not as bad as earlier, but still pretty foggy. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Another day around 80 with dewpoints in the 60s. :thumbsdown:

I have the AC off and the family was complaining about how warm the house was yesterday and last night.  THen they realized that they have ceiling fans and windows. :-)

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54 minutes ago, mappy said:

was pretty thick earlier, could barely see our neighbors houses, both front and backyards. then the sun popped out a bit, fog cleared.. and then more fog rolled back in. not as bad as earlier, but still pretty foggy. 

It was really bad here too.  Could barely see 30 feet in front of this morning when i made a quick trip to Ace Hardware. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Very entertaining 12z gfs. All in!

SNOW?!?!?!

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21 minutes ago, mappy said:

SNOW?!?!?!

No. Maybe flurries for you verbatim at like D13?  But heavy rain and some cold air. 

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3 hours ago, mappy said:

was pretty thick earlier, could barely see our neighbors houses, both front and backyards. then the sun popped out a bit, fog cleared.. and then more fog rolled back in. not as bad as earlier, but still pretty foggy. 

foggu

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No. Maybe flurries for you verbatim at like D13?  But heavy rain and some cold air. 

Ahh, i didn't look. So was just guessing.

Cold air would be nice. I'm a bit over these warm temps for the end of October. 

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ahh, i didn't look. So was just guessing.

Cold air would be nice. I'm a bit over these warm temps for the end of October. 

work sucked today.  Its wasn't bad until the sun came out and then instant blast furnace.  With water 

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