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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Managed to maintain a solid snow cover here, in spite of the thaw over the weekend. I have about 2" of crusty stale snow on the ground which will almost certainly be the foundation of the seasonal snowpack at this point. Currently 31F and snowing lightly as we get fringed by the anafrontal wave. 

Even though the Wednesday night/Thursday deal will almost certainly deliver the bulk of its snow well south of the White Mountains, it does look like there is room for some very light accumulation on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. It would be nice to pick up an inch or two to freshen things up and make it pretty again. Waking up to a fresh accumulation of light snow with temperatures well down into the teens Thursday morning would be a win at this point.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Looks like a boring stretch coming up but hey, it's snowing :)

Today's very light snow has ended.  Just slipped below 32F.  Maybe a long time before we go back over it.   Lost most of our snowcover with this latest stretch of warm weather.  Now we wait to see if the next storm delivers.  Only 5" of snow this season so far.

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41 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Today's very light snow has ended.  Just slipped below 32F.  Maybe a long time before we go back over it.   Lost most of our snowcover with this latest stretch of warm weather.  Now we wait to see if the next storm delivers.  Only 5" of snow this season so far.

Just behind you here with 4”. Maybe we can go for futility?

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I haven’t seen any notably snowfall down at our elevation yet today, but it must have started up fairly recently because there’s light snow out there right now.  It looks like the BTV NWS AFD has it covered well, and it definitely emphasizes the importance of orographics with respect getting some lift:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

332 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow showers will be possible through the overnight hours across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains with minor snow accumulations possible at higher elevations.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 330 PM EST Monday...We are beginning to see snow showers begin to blossom across the eastern coastline of Lake Ontario this afternoon ahead of an approaching polar cold front. Looking at the latest observations and satellite data, the cold front is currently situated across western Lake Ontario and will continue to push quickly eastward through the remainder of the afternoon hours into the overnight hours. Looking at some of the forecast soundings across northern New York, it still looks like the lack of lift through the snow growth layer is going to be a severe limiting factor for snow shower activity across our forecast area. The 12Z GFS/CMC/NAM model guidance shows virtually NIL frontogenesis (surface convergence) along the frontal boundary which is why the overall forcing remains sub-par. This should lead to much of the shower activity this evening and overnight to likely be orographically driven with any accumulations likely tied to the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Accumulations up to an inch or so will be possible across the higher terrain with little to nothing at lower elevations.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Very active weather down here. I’m glad it’s cold at least to hold on to my pack while I’m gone. 

I grew up in the same neighborhood as Bob Turk.  He still is a friend of mine.  I was talking with him yesterday.  I wished him luck with this one.  As it happens many time the Balt/DC area straddles the rain/snow line with this one.  Could be some big busts down there if the line is 20 miles north or south.  Have fun  down there.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

LOL yeah it’s basically the thunder dome down there. 

I mean I kind of get it, it literally may not snow again for a year or two in some spots if things don't break right.  It was funny seeing you guys all toss the NAM and the NE forum saying '"crushed".

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I mean I kind of get it, it literally may not snow again for a year or two in some spots if things don't break right.  It was funny seeing you guys all toss the NAM and the NE forum saying '"crushed".

It makes sense...Phin will gradually leave that leave that feeling behind with more time up north.  But man it is neurotic in some of those threads, lol.

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 32.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

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A solid dusting and a little gusty tonight. Probably as exciting as the next week gets. The area in PA I moved from is about to jackpot from the upcoming storm and it has me feeling some type of way. 

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

The cold front had clearly passed and the snow shut off last night after an additional 0.2”, but we just got another round of snow this morning after observations time.  When I get a chance I’ll try to figure out if it goes with this event or gets rolled into its own.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 23.0 F

Sky: Mostly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM says don’t sleep on this up here. 

Just saw it.  Puts Brian and me right in the heaviest goods.  I like these type of storms  (if this were to verify).  I didn't follow the models closely for days and days and then the north trend begins just a day or two before the storm.  Phin,  you will be amazed how fast NNE cleans up after a cold, powder storm.  Unlike Maryland that takes days and days the storm will be cleaned up almost before the snow stops.  

Still this is the NAM and until the GFS and Euro come on board this is a SNE storm.  Will watch closely today

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38 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Now the RGEM takes the max stripe up into NH.

Another cycle or two like this and Randolph will be in good shape. 

Meanwhile, it's total pandemonium in the MA thread. Full meltdown mode.

Another storm bites the dust. So glad I (mostly) moved north.

I have become very (and I mean VERY) skeptical of models even a day before, but I would actually feel a bit bad if that happened. I think last year pretty much every modeled that was progged to hit SNE ended up being a NNE storm and leaving them wet and warm; as an ex SNE resident, that hurts - and unlike up here, a missed opportunity means you may have to wait a long time to get another chance. What we need is just a nice old fashioned storm that hits everyone from CT to VT to ME! 

0.2" overnight, yippe. 5" at the stake. At least we've got snow...

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6 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The cold front had clearly passed and the snow shut off last night after an additional 0.2”, but we just got another round of snow this morning after observations time.  When I get a chance I’ll try to figure out if it goes with this event or gets rolled into its own. 

I checked the BTV NWS AFD regarding the snow was saw today, and it looks like it was due to cold air advection with northwest upslope flow.  With the clear and sharp cessation of the snowfall after yesterday’s cold front, it looks like today’s snow is part of a discrete event.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1212 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

…Otherwise, nw upslope flw and caa has resulted in remaining moisture being squeezed out acrs the mountains, with additional clouds and a few flurries. Expect these to dissipate by noon, as moisture decreases.

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Very cold day in these parts today. The "official" high will be a midnight high of 28F, but we bottomed out at 17F this morning and only recovered to 20F for the afternoon maximum. Currently down to 11F with a biting wind.

Optimistic looking at the model trends regarding Thursday's event. A couple/few inches to freshen things up would do wonders. 2" of cement at the stake.

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