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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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19F with light snow this morning. Looks like we may be in this for a little while longer, but the models have the best lift shifting north by mid-morning so this is probably another 1/4" deal here. Still, we will finally break 1" on the season lol.

I'm intrigued to see what happens with round two later tonight into tomorrow morning. The mid-levels warm significantly, but this is some pretty solid cold air entrenched in my CAD-prone location. I think we could be in for a pretty decent glazing in these parts. We'll be lucky to sniff 30 today.

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Wife said a couple inches so far through 8am.  No more grass blades visible, solid blanket of white.

Looks like through 7-7:30am a good 1.5-2" in the area.  Little stat padder to keep bumping that snowfall up for November, ha.  

Untitled.thumb.jpg.359819dffa73b0336260af010b1a3240.jpg

 

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Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

Clearing the snowboards this morning was a welcomed change of pace, in that I could simply tilt them and the snow slid right off.  It was clear that the temperatures with this event were cold right from the start of the snowfall.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.3

Snow Density: 8.8% H2O

Temperature: 24.4 F

Sky: Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Next week looks awful. I really hope the models are wrong about Monday-Thursday with the deluge. 

They've been pretty consistent with the Monday/Tuesday deal - I think that's going to be an ugly, ugly event for us. But I'm a little more optimistic about the event to follow on 12/3-4. The Euro still shows rain with that one for now, but I think there's a better chance of that shifting to a more agreeable solution. We'll see. 

I know the Vermonters here are at or above normal in the snowfall department this month, but I can't imagine that's the case here. To be eeking my way toward a 1" seasonal total on November 25th at 1500' has to be below normal here. Relative to normal, I think the Route 16 corridor from Jackson down toward Ossipee has had it the worst so far. We don't get the upslope, and we missed the two synoptic events that delivered snow to other parts of the state on 10/17 and 10/30.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Next week looks awful. I really hope the models are wrong about Monday-Thursday with the deluge. 

It's coming. But as I said, looks like it changes to a more favorable pattern afterwards. 

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1 minute ago, jculligan said:

They've been pretty consistent with the Monday/Tuesday deal - I think that's going to be an ugly, ugly event for us. But I'm a little more optimistic about the event to follow on 12/3-4. The Euro still shows rain with that one for now, but I think there's a better chance of that shifting to a more agreeable solution. We'll see. 

I know the Vermonters here are at or above normal in the snowfall department this month, but I can't imagine that's the case here. To be eeking my way toward a 1" seasonal total on November 25th at 1500' has to be below normal here.

The good snow has mostly all been upslope stuff and clearly you are not in a great zone for that. The snow today should put Randolph up over 14” so far on the season. I think you are getting shafted because most of the synoptic precip so far has been rain. Hopefully one last garbage rain bomb to power through and then we can get the real party started. 

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5 minutes ago, jculligan said:

They've been pretty consistent with the Monday/Tuesday deal - I think that's going to be an ugly, ugly event for us. But I'm a little more optimistic about the event to follow on 12/3-4. The Euro still shows rain with that one for now, but I think there's a better chance of that shifting to a more agreeable solution. We'll see. 

I know the Vermonters here are at or above normal in the snowfall department this month, but I can't imagine that's the case here. To be eeking my way toward a 1" seasonal total on November 25th at 1500' has to be below normal here. Relative to normal, I think the Route 16 corridor from Jackson down toward Ossipee has had it the worst so far. We don't get the upslope, and we missed the two synoptic events that delivered snow to other parts of the state on 10/17 and 10/30.

Wouldn’t be a bad thing to get a nice dump rain in the ground before everything freezes up. Looks like we have a shot to have a snow pack building by the end of the second week of December. That feels normal to meWouldn’t be a bad thing to get a nice dump rain in the ground before everything freezes up. Looks like we have a shot to have a snow pack building by the end of the second week of December. That feels normal to me

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The good snow has mostly all been upslope stuff and clearly you are not in a great zone for that. The snow today should put Randolph up over 14” so far on the season. I think you are getting shafted because most of the synoptic precip so far has been rain. Hopefully one last garbage rain bomb to power through and then we can get the real party started. 

There’s been a couple synoptic systems too, even stuff like this mornings 2-3”.  SNE got a decent event so far.  That area from just South of the Whites into SW ME seems to be the one zone that hasn’t had a plowable snowfall.  It’s coming though, it always does.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There’s been a couple synoptic systems too, even stuff like this mornings 2-3”.  SNE got a decent event so far.  That area from just South of the Whites into SW ME seems to be the one zone that hasn’t had a plowable snowfall.  It’s coming though, it always does.

For SNE yes. And the 2-3 this morning for you that he isn’t getting. :) 

His area hasn’t gotten any synoptic snow of note hence the big deficit there. Upslope magic doesn’t happen in that area. 

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For SNE yes. And the 2-3 this morning for you that he isn’t getting. :) 

His area hasn’t gotten any synoptic snow of note hence the big deficit there. Upslope magic doesn’t happen in that area. 

Yeah he’s on the wrong side of Pinkham notch for upslope. 

The synoptic stuff will come though. Some years there’s a couple good ones in November but other years it seems like you’re waiting and then all of the sudden you get destroyed by several in a row in December.  

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20f, steady snow, little over 2” down this morning.  What a great opening day for Stowe.  Was thinking about sneaking over, but too much stuff to do and my wife was “less than receptive” about handling work and virtual school today.  I think we have several hours of this today before the rain tonight.  Weekly totals for the last two weeks have been solid for mid November.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he’s on the wrong side of Pinkham notch for upslope. 

The synoptic stuff will come though. Some years there’s a couple good ones in November but other years it seems like you’re waiting and then all of the sudden you get destroyed by several in a row in December.  

Upslope seems to have been the majority of the snow here so far.  Totals have been solid, it just seems we are a little early to maintain it.  

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Just to look at the difference 1 week can make...I posted yesterday the graph that showed average snowpack for the local COOP for 11/24.  It was 38% chance for greater than 1" depth.  

Go out just about 1 week from now on 12/3 and it jumps to 66%.  So again shows how quickly it can ramp up and NOV normally isnt a good starting point for contnuous snow cover.

image.png.9d440e538eed4df6949e65f292b444f0.png

 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s been a couple synoptic systems too, even stuff like this mornings 2-3”.  SNE got a decent event so far.  That area from just South of the Whites into SW ME seems to be the one zone that hasn’t had a plowable snowfall.  It’s coming though, it always does.

And maybe farther north to the Route 2 corridor.  That 0.6" of 30:1 fluff back on the 3rd  didn't quite qualify as plowable, though it brought out the sand trucks.  First flakes at 7:20 this morning as I was entering my 0.00 in cocorahs, now 2-3 tenths OG, so it should bring the season total to over one inch.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s been a couple synoptic systems too, even stuff like this mornings 2-3”.  SNE got a decent event so far.  That area from just South of the Whites into SW ME seems to be the one zone that hasn’t had a plowable snowfall.  It’s coming though, it always does.

Yup, the 10/17 anafront event missed us to the west and the 10/30 event missed us to the south. It just comes down to bad luck. But my area averages 100"+ so I know it's coming.

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Just now, jculligan said:

0.3" here brings us up to 1.2" on the season. Getting "snizzle" now which will likely continue for a good majority of the day. Sitting at 22F.

It may get quite slippery up there today.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It may get quite slippery up there today.

I will likely be the king of CAD in this location lol. It'll be interesting to see if we're still below freezing when the steadier precip resumes later tonight. Could be a very slick Thanksgiving morning up here.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Temp went from 19-28 in like an hour. I don’t see much of an ice threat here. 

Winds aloft just above you are SSE. Definitely not a classic CAD deal there. 

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New echoes have blossomed and it's actually snowing at a pretty decent clip again. Up to 0.5" which is my most significant accumulation to date. Maybe we'll end up close to our first inch today after all.

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1 hour ago, jculligan said:

I will likely be the king of CAD in this location lol.

That title would probably be heavily contended with Tamarack around?  What’s the consensus on that?

KingOfCAD.jpg

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