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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Little bit of a bust here this morning. I expected 2-3" of wet snow overnight, but we ended up getting a little bit of sleet and a light glazing of freezing rain instead. Currently 33F and misting.

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Reading all these high five posts and avg or above avg sn makes me think I live in an entirely different region. Still 20" BN here. Jeff, Tam and I got porked this winter.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Well, it really is completely different microclimate  than most of VT.  Not that this is breaking news.  You could get a string of late blooming Millers B's that leave most of the VT posters with a few inches of sand or cirrus.  Some years, the wealth is spread more evenly, this year little different obviously.

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Reading all these high five posts and avg or above avg sn makes me think I live in an entirely different region. Still 20" BN here. Jeff, Tam and I got porked this winter.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Do you mean 20" below normal to this point or below your final seasonal total?  

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do you mean 20" below normal to this point or below your final seasonal total?  

Has to be assuming zero snow going forward. Most of our sites are around average for the date but projecting towards below normal.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Has to be assuming zero snow going forward. Most of our sites are around average for the date but projecting towards below normal.

That's what I thought.  I understand it being crappy over that way. Seems like retention has been an issue and never truly getting the storm that put you into true winter mode.

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Has to be assuming zero snow going forward. Most of our sites are around average for the date but projecting towards below normal.

Doesn’t look very promising on the models for more snow in his area.

34 degree light rain here now. 

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

That's what I thought.  I understand it being crappy over that way. Seems like retention has been an issue and never truly getting the storm that put you into true winter mode.

It's been pretty meager outside of the December storm. I've actually only been able to sled with my kid 3 times because of all the mixed precip locking up the pack. 

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9 hours ago, LaGrangewx said:

Great write up. Killington is actually about 15” above average based on the data they have on their website. They claim 170” is average by the end of February. Stratton should average a bit more snow than Mount Snow but they always seem to report pretty conservatively. Both those mountains are probably a bit above average. It is surprising Okemo seems to be below average even after their record 45” storm in December which accounts for almost half their snow on the season which basically disappeared not long after they got it. Seems like The great stretch that was enough to provide excellent skiing conditions wasn’t quite enough to overcome the lackluster start to the first 2.5 months to get places up to their season average to date. I believe The Mansfield stake has always been just below average and hasn’t been able to quite break above the mean line yet. Like you said, a below average winter has still provided one of the better stretches of skiing up there and that really goes to show how much it snows in the northern New England mountains during an average winter. Down here in the Hudson valley, if you get one big storm above 18” and have a sustained period of colder weather it’s an A winter. 
I wonder if Sugarbush could be measuring or reporting differently Or if they really did just miss out this winter a bit more than everywhere else? I remember in the past it was rare for them to report less on the season than Mad River Glen and especially rare to have less than Killington let alone 25% less like currently. Usually they were very close to Stowe’s numbers when they used their summit snowfall totals. 

Thanks for the additional detail – that’s great to get that intermediate snowfall number for Killington to know where they stand.  It’s nice to know that they’re ahead of average pace with their current snowfall and are having a decent season in that regard.  Unfortunately, it’s rare to get that sort of number from the resorts to see where things stand during the season – they’ve got the data of course, and probably have those sorts of numbers for in-house discussions, but it’s just not worth that extra work of trying to post that all the time on the website.  It’s also probably not great for marketing when places are way behind average pace.

Thankfully, I at least have a rough idea most of the time where the resorts up here in the Northern Greens stand with respect to their seasonal snowfall progress, since I’ve got my running average seasonal snowfall numbers for each day, and they generally run right around 50% of theirs.

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Raining pretty good here in Twin. I was oblivious until I left my room to head to work and I opened the door and saw all the water. Oh goodness the parking lot is a mess! But I guess this is natures car wash! 

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On 2/27/2021 at 1:26 PM, Angus said:

I've never seen Katahdin in the winter in person but there is something striking about it as you drive in from south. if you are arriving via 95, the terrain is essentially flat most of the ride. I guess there is a bit of undulation thru Millinocket and then...there it is. Kind of like the OMG Corner on 27 as you drive into Sugarloaf...

 

Went right by it on Saturday on my way to Eustis, Its quite impressive as you make the corner.

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52 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That's what I thought.  I understand it being crappy over that way. Seems like retention has been an issue and never truly getting the storm that put you into true winter mode.

Local trails were open 10 days, I would have to say that is a very poor season.

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41 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Thankfully, I at least have a rough idea most of the time where the resorts up here in the Northern Greens stand with respect to their seasonal snowfall progress, since I’ve got my running average seasonal snowfall numbers for each day, and they generally run right around 50% of theirs.

Following up on the seasonal snowfall averages I noted above, I’ve got the plot for this year’s snowfall progression with respect to average at our site.

We had that strong start with a couple of storms in early November that put us well ahead of average for a while, but that surplus gradually languished through both December and January, since both those months fell below average on snowfall.  It got to the point that in mid-January, we’d actually lost those early surpluses and fell behind average pace on the season.  Although January overall did come in below average on snowfall, the second half of the month through about mid-February brought some modest synoptic storms that helped us get back a bit ahead of average, and then we ran around average for the rest of February to at least hold onto that bit of surplus.

01MAR21A.jpg

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25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Local trails were open 10 days, I would have to say that is a very poor season.

Yeah, that is awful.  I've probably just ended the season here.  I bought a new (to me) sled this weekend.  Combined with the new snowblower I bought earlier, I'm surprised we haven't been sunny and 60.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Has to be assuming zero snow going forward. Most of our sites are around average for the date but projecting towards below normal.

Agreed.   He's at 51.1" to date, plus 2/27 stuff if any.  His annual is probably like Jeff's, 72-75".   My current 50.8" is 16.2" BN to date and 39" below full season average.  If GFS is to be believed, we get nada or nearly so thru 3/16, wasting this week's cold then watching the pack shrink next week.  Maybe we "eclipse" 2010's March (0.6") for low snow?  Hope not.

Club trail thru our woodlot was open but scratchy in late January, but the 2/2 event brought the sleds out in force, making up for lost time.  

Edit:  Noted for envy - My county of residence 1950-72 (Morris, north central NJ) did pretty well in Feb, with many sites recording mid-upper 40s and Mine Hill Twp getting 55".  Similar totals for Sussex and Warren, counties NW and W from Morris, though only one in Warren reached the half-century mark.  We had numerous 30"+ months when I lived there but only 3/56 might have reached 40.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Do you mean 20" below normal to this point or below your final seasonal total?  

The latter. And yes, while march could close the gap, I'm not betting on it based on long term. Even if it did, too little too late. I might move my grade up from D- to D.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

That's what I thought.  I understand it being crappy over that way. Seems like retention has been an issue and never truly getting the storm that put you into true winter mode.

Feb retention for what we had OTG was great, no complaints there. The whole winter vibe would have been different and markedly improved it it wasn't for the Grinch.

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Just drove up from the village and noticed all the trees about 200-300' above my cabin are glazed. Looks like a pretty good freezing rain event higher up on Doublehead this morning. The top of Black Mountain appears to be glazed as well. Hopefully those elevations get a spike in temp this afternoon before the wind arrives.

36F with a steady rain falling here at 1500 feet. 0.17" in the bucket so far today. Hopefully we can catch a squall or two this evening to freshen things up again.

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Skiing has been much better than expected today... they regroomed a bunch this morning and you could tell there was a freezing rain event from 2,500ft and above from ice on the trees.  But it softened up nicely today and the lowest 1,000ft have a spring-like surface.  That will lock up tight though here shortly.

We are all snow down through 1,500ft at this point after some earlier rain showers (just flurries now).  But anything falling from here on out should remain snow with CAA.

Can see the FROPA approaching the northern Champlain Valley on radar... should produce some decent squalls as it hits the Spine if past history is any indication.

WUNIDS_map.gif.b60341ceeb81054313a87195dea248df.gif

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Ended up being a pretty balmy day here with a high of 40F. Although I generally despise deep arctic air, this seems like it's going to be a fun frontal passage, and I'm looking forward to seeing how quickly the temperatures take a nosedive this evening. We should end up with something like a 40-degree drop in about 12 hours, which is rather impressive.

In other news, I'm heading up to Baxter State Park in Maine at the end of this week for what was supposed to be a long weekend of cabin-based ski touring. The big objective was a descent off the summit of Katahdin via the Abol Slide, but projected temperatures may keep us below treeline unless things trend differently as we get closer. There are a couple of smaller objectives that appear to be within striking distance of our cabin, but with limited knowledge of the snowpack history and no formal avalanche forecasting in the park...we'll be keeping things as conservative as possible for that area. Either way, it'll be nice to get out into true wilderness for a few days...and leave the familiarity of the White Mountains behind for a bit.

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like just upslope for NNE through the middle of the month on the models.

I think that would fall on deaf ears for the most part in the main threads, but it’s nice to see that you’re watching for those northern/upslope systems.  This is the thread in which to discuss those.  I just took a spin through the latest run of the GFS, and there are 6 to 7 potential systems on there that could affect the area through mid-month.  One sort of unique source that’s been on there for several days is that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that backs up a bit and pushes a little precipitation down this way.  I don’t see any of those big synoptic storms you want yet, but it looks like there are plenty of systems that could affect the area over the next couple of weeks.

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6 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I think that would fall on deaf ears for the most part in the main threads, but it’s nice to see that you’re watching for those northern/upslope systems.  This is the thread in which to discuss those.  I just took a spin through the latest run of the GFS, and there are 6 to 7 potential systems on there that could affect the area through mid-month.  One sort of unique source that’s been on there for several days is that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that backs up a bit and pushes a little precipitation down this way.  I don’t see any of those big synoptic storms you want yet, but it looks like there are plenty of systems that could affect the area over the next couple of weeks.

Yes, it appears we will stay reasonably cold with bouts of upslope over the next 7-10 days. Should get skiing back on track after today and tonight makes things a bit rough.

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Squall line just passed through here. Started with some graupel and switched to a nice burst of heavy snow. Should be hitting the Stowe/Smuggs area right about now.

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-03-01 at 2.57.05 PM.png

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18 minutes ago, Froude said:

Squall line just passed through here. Started with some graupel and switched to a nice burst of heavy snow. Should be hitting the Stowe/Smuggs area right about now.

 

Just hit here.  Can't see across Over Easy.  Visibility has to be 1/4 mile or so.  It's almost entirely graupel though.  Just pounding dippin' dots.

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