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Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins


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34 minutes ago, canderson said:

It hit 82 and winds have Ben in the low to mid 30s, so above temp guess and below wind guess. 


I thought the winds would be stronger as well - having said that, just returned from a walk on the river trail. Heard a large crack followed by a huge tree that came down 50' from me. You might have crossed my mind at that point...

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like the great Franklin County drought could be coming to an end by Monday!


7 hours ago, canderson said:

Sunday night into Monday looks like a nice rainfall, indeed. 

Better to be south than north - with that big high up north I'm not convinced that areas north and west of HBG see much at all. I'm wondering if I see more than .5 - 1"

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The Sus Valley and most of the southern tier look okay for this event but that north central portion of PA in the D2 drought area aren't looking all that great for getting the type of rainfall that is really needed there after pretty much the whole area had looked pretty good for a region wide 1-2" rainfall a few days ago. 12z GFS/Euro darn near take PIttburgh and SWPA out of the whole thing and really reduces the central (JST/AOO/UNV). Given radar trends of the initial rainfall edging toward the mason-dixon line, I'd say that's a bit extreme as Pitt and central region should get into that eventually this eve. Really don't know what to think of the globals really pushing southeast with this. They could be lowballing some considering what should be high PWATs/very efficient rainfall via tropical connection (Delta remnants) and a nice Atlantic easterly fetch via a 1030ish high setting up to our north. I think everyone in the region will see rain, it's just a matter of how much and how far into central PA some of the more soaking rain gets. 

Having discussed the event at hand, I'd like to throw out some thoughts about the pattern we're about to get into and some winter thoughts/concerns. The NAO/AO is heading solidly negative in the D6-10 and possibly staying there for a time. The mid into late month period def looks to favor below average, with today's GFS looking more like mid-late November on D6-10. A pattern like that has been at a premium the last few years, so seeing it emerge in mid-October is fairly encouraging for possibly seeing this regime show up once we get into the winter.

When I posted in August some really early thoughts on the upcoming winter, my concern was not so much whether or not the cold will be around but moisture and that thinking hasn't changed. We're seeing the continuation of an overall dry regime getting deep into the fall now, with this current event being of a tropical origin and not a typical mid-latitude cyclone. ENSO is looking like it's going to be a player as we have a pretty solid La Nina going, with last weeks number at -1.1ºC in Nino 3.4. Typical Nina pattern favors a northern branch storm track over Pac NW with limited southern stream influence (dry California coast). With the base setup like that, downstream blocking via the NAO becomes more important than usual to anchor an eastern trough and to capitalize on more limited opportunities for phasing a coastal. Generally, I expect our winter events to be northern branch heavy this season.. but if we have a good pattern alignment we can put together some solid events (4-6" type) and clippers which pretty much didn't exist in our region last winter. I don't usually put together an outlook but I'll throw out that I think snowfall will be in the 75-100% of average range, with the Laurels perhaps having the best opportunity for an average season with what I see is a better season than the last few for LES/upslope in that region. 

Now this could be worse if we get into a Nina type setup that drives a lot of eastern ridging (dominant MJO 4-5-6, for example), but either way this season will likely be a lot better compared to pretty much a rock bottom winter last year. There's also the 95-96 option on the table if we do lock in an extended -NAO/-AO during the front half of the winter.

Think winter's still far off? This was the GFS hr 180 today.


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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I’ll be kinda shocked if I get more than .5”. Radar and trend is putrid. 

This was my fear last evening- it seems like the northern edge/advancement keeps getting eroded by drier air. I thought the radar looked okay a little while ago but the concentrated area hasn't made much progress out of central MD...yet.

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Settled into a pretty decent steady rain here as precip has finally blossomed. Short/near term guidance doesn't seem to be seeing the heavy band in the Laurels and steady precip in the adjacent counties (AOO-UNV corridor) very well. Probably some pretty heavy rain under that area in Somerset County aided with the S/SE flow upsloping into the ridges and some of this enhancement may work into the ridge and valley region overnight I-80 south into the Sus Valley. Still doesn't look like the LSV sees the widespread 2"+ type deal that seemed like a certainty but should still generally see 0.5-1.0" with some higher amounts in spots. Unfortunately for our north-central, the heavier rain doesn't look interested in making much press above I-80... with some lighter rainfall instead. Once to the US 6 corridor in the central, there might be little if any rain.  

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