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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Seems in this new day and age, we tend not to stay dry for too long.  That solution also looks to have severe implications for the South. A huge dive in the NAO and the AO coming up shortly, with a pretty good consensus that it verifies. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Wondering about the Euro verification scores last few days. Heard East of the Mississippi it is not doing that hot recently during the past 30 to 45 days.  Maybe the GFS goes for the win.   I re seeded a little time ago. I don't need flash flooding again. 

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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

WPC goes with higher  QPF in latest update. 

..Weather/Hazard Highlights...

 

Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low

position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S.

through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification

trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front

and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A

significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to

address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus

from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek,

albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and

moisture inflow potential.

 


 

p168i.gif?1601033546

 

 

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Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly. 

Image

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September  and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere,  by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben,  recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. 

 

 

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. 

LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference.

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference.

What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. 

Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. 

ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday ;) 

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This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. 

... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar...

Hopefully you all understood what I said. 

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Recording a T for last night.  16 days since the last measurable rain here above a T.  Looks like that will probably end next week but a heck of a dry stretch.

Fall color has started here on the margins....greens are dulled and the deer are freaking everywhere.  

The fall smallmouth bite is on as well.  Here are a few pics from the other eve while fishing the rapids...up river from Harpers Ferry.  7 smallmouth and 1 walleye! Love this time of year....

8jEfuXt.jpg

iejZxRN.jpg

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