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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Also for those using radar rains... I checked OKX and DIX estimates... they were too significantly too low in the east-west axis just below I78 last night.  I  its safe to say 3/4"-2.75" fell in that band last night (CoCoRAHS, WXUNDERGROUND and RU climate sites). It drains but soil remains a bit moist for whatever happens tomorrow night, then late Sunday svr risk,  then the tropics, if its still on NHC track.  

Can confirm. I was the 2.76" CoCoRaHS in Somerset. 10.31" for the month. 

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Just now, forkyfork said:

the canadian barely has a system by the time it gets up here

LOL-that model is horrid-not sure why it's used for anything let alone tropical systems

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Just now, PB-99 said:

The stronger the storm the more likely it is to move poleward.

The 6z EPS was weaker so it`s able to drift into Fla. If it gets stronger ( models have a hard time with intensification sometimes ) it prob avoids Fla.

 

So it comes down to intensification. 

If it`s weak then NC dodges a bullet. 

I think we'll know that answer within the next 24 hrs.  Models do sometimes miss instensifications

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An inland track doesn't mean that it will be weak. Of course it will be stronger if it stays over water but the major part of the storm will also be east of everywhere except possibly Long Island.

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This is the best analog that I can find. I think it's pretty similar. Only difference is that it stayed just off Hispanolia instead of grazing it.

1280px-Irene_2011_track.png

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is the best analog that I can find. I think it's pretty similar. Only difference is that it stayed just off Hispanolia instead of grazing it.

1280px-Irene_2011_track.png

Floyd?

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Totally different system in just 24 hours on the Euro 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_4.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

 

24 hours ago 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_6.png

 

20 mb difference, different track, yields a different outcome further N.

AWT. 

 

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The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday.

Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb.

No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow.

So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....

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12 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Only the model did. 

it didn't. maue made an algorithm that grossly over estimates wind gusts 

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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday.

Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb.

No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow.

So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....

models never get the strength right this far out

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Just now, MJO812 said:

models never get the strength right this far out

running out of time-landfall is tomorrow night...if it LF's on Florida, goodbye to the stronger solutions.

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On 7/31/2020 at 2:37 PM, forkyfork said:

it didn't. maue made an algorithm that grossly over estimates wind gusts 

Not calling you a liar, but do you have another max wind gust map from yesterday`s 12z run of another algo that shows that ?

If that's the case, it will not be used.

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Not calling you a liar, but do you have another max wind gust map from yesterday`s 12z run of another algo that shows that ?

If that`s the case, it will not be used. 

 

good meteorologists use forecast soundings to determine wind gusts

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Are his LE maps bloated as well ? 

he counts sleet as snow. lol

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

he counts sleet as snow. lol

That`s known and those 10 to 1 maps have been wrong for 7 years. Same goes for TT. 

But I am talking about his gusts maps, he says his algo are the related soundings.

So I am just asking do you have another 12z max wind gust map from 12z yesterday from a diff algo to show his soundings are off in any way.

Happy not to use corrupt output, but Ryan says those are the soundings . 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of record heat and dry air on the western side of this.

A034BAA9-D28E-4BCF-B564-A40E2E88637D.jpeg.8f10ec5c6c1771b766e3eb04ef285318.jpeg

that and the shear are likely why this won't develop much more (at least according to today's models)

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Just now, PB-99 said:

That`s known and those 10 to 1 maps have been wrong for 5 years.

But I am talking about his gusts maps, he says his algo are the related soundings.

So I am just asking, do you have another 12z max wind gust map from 12z yesterday from a diff algo to show his soundings are off in any way.

Happy not to use corrupted output, by Ryan says those are the soundings . 

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

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