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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro winds are rough city on east-overdone but wow

1596574800-hA2ONzScAkc.png

 

UKMET winds are stronger.

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All in NYC forum. I have no answer on how bad, but definitely more serious than first considered when we started the thread days ago.

My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas, if 70 knot gusts materialize. LI/New England and high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ as well as coastal NJ hit the hardest.  Rainfall... 2-8" most of our area by 9PM Tuesday, maybe a little higher in tonight-Tuesday overlap.  

Will check 5P NHC and try too follow up this eve and Tue am. 

229P/3

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even cutting by 25-50% is still impressive.

 

You cut the euro by 25% and it`s damaging. 

The UKMET winds are  off the charts, reduce this by 30% and it`s damaging. 

 

Image

I was chided 3 days ago at thinking 100 mph gusts were possible on LI, now I am really looking for someone to record an 80 mph gust somewhere on the coast. 

 

And that`s close enough. 

 

 

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Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close. 

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With reference to rainfall particularly the Euro, rainfall amounts in and just west of the city look to be on the order of 1-2" with lesser amounts to the east and heavier amounts further inland. With that said, small shifts in the track will make a big difference rainfall wise.

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These extra-tropical or transitioning storms have proven to be quite the big ticket items around here.

 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close. 

Getting a bit concerned out this way now, not liking those high wind forecasts at all. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Getting a bit concerned out this way now, not liking those high wind forecasts at all. 

You got a generator?  If not, I'd be worried about prolonged power outage.  Good test for PSEG infrastructure projects they've been doing for years since Sandy.

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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

You got a generator?  If not, I'd be worried about prolonged power outage.  Good test for PSEG infrastructure projects they've been doing for years since Sandy.

No generator. 

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From my eyes the storm looks about as good in satellite as it has in awhile yet.  Those wind projections are eye opening for sure.  especially considering last July when we had that thunderstorm Squall line move through the Jersey Shore with 75 mile an hour winds I think we had hundreds of thousands without power for at least a couple of days.  

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Those UK wind gust charts do not look reliable.  Winds will be much stronger over open water than over land (outside isolated spin ups or atop exposed ridges).  Those charts appear to be low resolution and well overdone.  

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Just now, Big Jims Videos said:

From my eyes the storm looks about as good in satellite as it has in awhile yet.  Those wind projections are eye opening for sure.  especially considering last July when we had that thunderstorm Squall line move through the Jersey Shore with 75 mile an hour winds I think we had hundreds of thousands without power for at least a couple of days.  

I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Those UK wind gust charts do not look reliable.  Winds will be much stronger over open water than over land (outside isolated spin ups or atop exposed ridges).  Those charts appear to be low resolution and well overdone.  

Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.

A random 60 miles per hour wind gust is manageable. When you start getting in the 70s you have issues. I hope hope hope this is overdone but we will see.  

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.

So you can get some strong gusts down to the surface.  But still nothing like over open water where there is virtually no friction with the sea surface.

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 A potential 80 mph gust, a spin up and 5 inches of rain in spots makes for a wide spread severe day. 

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50mph winds are damaging.  And there could be wind damage tomorrow.  But most of these forecast wind charts are way overdone, as they almost always are.  6-8" of rain in 3 hours would cause some serious flooding problems in parts of NJ.  I think that could be the bigger concern tomorrow.  But the relatively short duration could spare the area.  Gotta watch frontal interaction out ahead of the main storm.

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my main concern is the rainfall in a short amount of time.  someone will see 6+ inches in a short time frame. models have been throwing out even 7-8” totals.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very slight shift East with the 18z spaghetti models. Mean track still over NJ. 

 

09L_tracks_latest.png

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A few tornadoes will be possible from the Virginia Tidewater into
   New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Isaias.
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds may also occur across portions of the northern and
   central Plains.

   ...Eastern North Carolina to New England...
   Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that
   Isaias should be located over far northeastern NC and southeastern
   VA at the start of the period Tuesday morning. Isaias should
   accelerate northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and into New
   England through the period as it becomes absorbed within an
   upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS. A rather strong low-level
   flow field (60-70+ kt at 850 mb) will be present in the eastern half
   of Isaias' circulation, which will aid in substantial low-level
   hodograph curvature/enhancement.

   The best prospect for weak destabilization (MLCAPE 250-1000 J/kg)
   should exist along/near the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England
   Coast, where surface dewpoints should increase into the low to
   perhaps mid 70s through Tuesday evening. Given the very favorable
   low-level shear, primary concern will be a few tornadoes with any
   low-topped cells in outer rain bands along/east of the center of
   Isaias' circulation. Confidence has increased enough in the Isaias'
   track and potential for modest diurnal destabilization along/near
   the coast to include 5% tornado probabilities and a Slight Risk from
   the VA Tidewater region northeastward into southern New England.
   Eventually, the strong low-level shear should become displaced to
   the north of even weak inland destabilization across NH and ME by
   late Tuesday night. This should result in a gradual lessening of the
   isolated tornado threat with northward extent across New England.

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Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NYZ062-PAZ048-041915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WI.Y.0010.200804T1600Z-200805T0300Z/
Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Monticello and Milford
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike county. In New York, Sullivan
  county.

* WHEN...From noon to 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

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