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CAPE

Winter 2020-21 Discussion

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26 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Aside from abundant blocking, was there any reason that it seems like that's been the only Nina in recent memory that produced those sorts of results? Seems like that winter also had some some characteristics that were unlike a Nina too so I guess that could be why just about any blocking we've had in recent Ninas has fallen short.

But 1996 would be an aberration in any enso. How rare is that outcome just in general?  I think when you get that kind of blocking all bets are off on everything else. Look at 2018. We got that kind of blocking in March and April and had several legit threats!  One legit hit and a few others that would have been if it was January not March plus one storm suppressed south of us even!!!  If we could get that kind of Uber blocking Dec-Feb even in a Nina we would probably do good. 2010/11 spooks some people but it still took a pretty fluky weird course of events to miss that Boxing Day storm then we did get one good storm in January. But the blocking broke down and the rest of winter sucked. If the blocking had persisted another few weeks or had been centered mid winter vs so early when our climo is rough that year probably would have been better.  Anytime we get that kind of blocking it can overcome other negative factors. 

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!

I don’t disagree just saying it’s not because of persistence. My point is many of the persistence crew isn’t really about persistence they are just about pessimism. 

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38 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Since 1950, only one cold October weak nina year had slightly above average snowfall at DCA.  Most decent winters with cold Octobers were ninos.

 

DCA Cold Octobers.jpg

1.  There are only 5 examples there of a Nina with a cold October. Too small to be reliable. 
2.  You aren’t adjusting the goalposts. We know in a Nina snowfall will very likely be below avg. we’re discussing will it be in the dumpster fire type Nina or the “better” but still below avg snowfall category. 2/5 years in that set were in the better category, 15.4 and 12.8” at DCA. If DCA breaks 10” in a Nina that is a huge win. If it breaks 12” it’s dance in the street time. 15” and clothes should come off!!!  
 

You listing how all cold October Nina’s were below avg is kinda duh since there has only been 1 above avg Nina at DCA total since 1950 so it’s too small a sample to draw any conclusions!

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59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But 1996 would be an aberration in any enso. How rare is that outcome just in general?  I think when you get that kind of blocking all bets are off on everything else. Look at 2018. We got that kind of blocking in March and April and had several legit threats!  One legit hit and a few others that would have been if it was January not March plus one storm suppressed south of us even!!!  If we could get that kind of Uber blocking Dec-Feb even in a Nina we would probably do good. 2010/11 spooks some people but it still took a pretty fluky weird course of events to miss that Boxing Day storm then we did get one good storm in January. But the blocking broke down and the rest of winter sucked. If the blocking had persisted another few weeks or had been centered mid winter vs so early when our climo is rough that year probably would have been better.  Anytime we get that kind of blocking it can overcome other negative factors. 

Yeah that makes sense. Seems like we're getting guaranteed storms or at least guaranteed potentials for hits every single time we get blocking nowadays, but of course the tradeoff is that we're in a period where periods of blocking are far and few between. Wonder if that's just a general climo shift of some sort. 

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Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! 

Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast. :cliff: ;)

Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET:

https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

Image

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1.  There are only 5 examples there of a Nina with a cold October. Too small to be reliable. 
2.  You aren’t adjusting the goalposts. We know in a Nina snowfall will very likely be below avg. we’re discussing will it be in the dumpster fire type Nina or the “better” but still below avg snowfall category. 2/5 years in that set were in the better category, 15.4 and 12.8” at DCA. If DCA breaks 10” in a Nina that is a huge win. If it breaks 12” it’s dance in the street time. 15” and clothes should come off!!!  
 

You listing how all cold October Nina’s were below avg is kinda duh since there has only been 1 above avg Nina at DCA total since 1950 so it’s too small a sample to draw any conclusions!

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

open your mind Luke..  use the force.  i understood what PSU was getting at.  lets not create hostile environments already.  Its only September!  Save that for late February when the sun angle folks start to raise their voice.

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37 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! 

Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast. :cliff: ;)

Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET:

https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

Image

Lol Hey, you know me...if there has to be snow suffering..."All together now":whistle: :lol: And hey, better to get these bad look LR forecasts now instead of getting a head-fake...so that if there's a surprise, AWESOME! But if not...the expectations are low to begin with, lol

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25 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

Post better work 

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49 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

70 years of data is not unreliable.  I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.

What your data showed was that of the last 5 Nina’s with a cold October none had above avg snowfall and only 2 had median. 
 

Here is the DCA snowfall in the last 5 “non cold” October Nina’s. 
13.6, 4.9, 10.1, 3.4, 7.8

None above normal snow. 2/5 median. Same probabilities. Your data is fine but all it shows is how crappy a Nina is, not any correlation to October temps as a predictor of just how crappy. 

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2 hours ago, PCT_ATC said:

open your mind Luke..  use the force.  i understood what PSU was getting at.  lets not create hostile environments already.  Its only September!  Save that for late February when the sun angle folks start to raise their voice.

Heck no. Let’s have a meltdown now. Get this off to a good start.

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need to get on the payroll. Tired of sending you business for free!

:lol: it’s so early for me.
 

I want a good winter for everyone but it just doesn’t look great right now. Niñas are great for tropical but not so much for winter, especially down there. 

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It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. 

The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. 

Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

 

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28 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. 

The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. 

Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

 

I have always felt the Pacific is the dominant player because we are downstream of it. We may need blocking to get big snows but with a +PNA at least we are usually cold with at worst chances for small events and less likely to have a complete crap bucket of a winter like last year.

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Going through this thread, I did not know how hard it is for most of the Mid Atl. to get some decent snow. Granted I would love to experience a blizzard like Jan 2016, Dec 2010 or Feb 2010. We don't get storms like that up this way. It's crazy how many variables need to come together for you guys to get even half decent snow. 

Up here we prefer La Nina's > El Nino's but that doesn't mean El Nino's are bad either. For example, our snowiest Nov is an El Nino (1940), our snowiest Dec is an El Nino (1951) and our 2nd snowiest Jan is also an El Nino (1966).  Our top 2 coldest winters ever (DJF) are also El Nino's (1976-77 and 1969-70). However, our top 3 snowiest winters on record are La Nina's (1937-38, 1949-50 and 2007-08). Records go back to 1937 at the airport. 

But believe it or not our least snowiest winter on record is a La Nina (2011-12). 2009-10, the golden winter for Mid Atl., ended up as the 2nd least snowiest winter on record here.  Two different ENSOs but with the same outcome. We can do pretty good here sometimes regardless of ENSO state. Even 1995-96 we nickeled and dimed our way up to 59" (14" above avg). 

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

:lol: it’s so early for me.
 

I want a good winter for everyone but it just doesn’t look great right now. Niñas are great for tropical but not so much for winter, especially down there. 

I see what you did there.

Its early, so visions of a Nina with blocking are still dancing in weenie heads.. It wont be long before every piece of guidance known to man shows a massive blob of blue up top. It will be all the sweeter. Patience.

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Another interesting reflection from grit regarding AO and the NAO both being negative ( .40 or lower ) during the period Dec to March since 1990. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Another interesting reflection from grit regarding AO and the NAO both being negative ( .40 or lower ) during the period Dec to March since 1990. 

 

Where's that Prince emote? lol

This was posted on the previous page, and yes interesting stuff.

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum: 

 

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. 
Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite.  The other 2 years were nothing like 1996!  Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996?  Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though.  That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. 
Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite.  The other 2 years were nothing like 1996!  Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996?  Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though.  That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.  

Nice post. Good info.

You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

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Sometimes it’s hard to accept we just can’t “know” something. But instead of focusing on the specifics we don’t know there is a lot we do. It’s very likely we’re heading towards a solid weak to moderate Nina. That also means it’s highly likely we get a suppressed STJ and an active northern stream dominant winter. Regardless of details that’s usually a dryer than normal look here. We will see a lot of those “precip hole” maps with :axe: emojis as the mountains eat up what little moisture those NS systems from the west have and they draw in Atlantic moisture too late to do us any good.  We all know the drill.
 

What we don’t yet know...is exactly the orientation and extent of the pacific ridge. If it’s flat we are very likely looking at a similar pattern to last winter. Even that doesn’t mean it AS BAD as last winter. There were some opportunities early that DC missed. And maybe there is one or two less hostile periods and DC lucks out.  But it would be another very mild and likely much below normal snowfall winter. 

On the other hand if the pac ridge extends poleward more we will likely see more arctic air intrusions into the eastern US and while it’s still going to be a struggle without the STJ, we have a better shot of lucking into some snow and eeking close to a median winter.  
 

There is always the crazy long shot possibility that due to some factor we can’t foresee an anomaly happens. 1996 for example. Or more realistically 1999/2000!  That was a god awful pattern the whole winter but we got a 10 day period with great blocking and cashed in big time. Flukes like that cannot be predicted but they can happen. 
 

That’s my take on where we are. I don’t want to stop anyone from speculating or trying to drill down on the details. I love the discussion.  So don’t think I’m trying to squash it. But imo it’s risky when you drill down so much you’re using 3 seasons (And 1 of those skews the mean) to make generalizations about the expected pattern. 

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice post. Good info.

You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

Thank you...

We all have our roles to play 

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Surprises are the best.

A redux of 2010, OTOH, as much as I didn't enjoy plowing that much snow off the lane, I have to say I could go for that!

This is one of my favorite shots.  I took this looking back up towards the house after making a few passes.  The piles of snow were close to 14' high!

 

Feb1010blizzard.jpg

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17 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Surprises are the best.

A redux of 2010, OTOH, as much as I didn't enjoy plowing that much snow off the lane, I have to say I could go for that!

This is one of my favorite shots.  I took this looking back up towards the house after making a few passes.  The piles of snow were close to 14' high!

 

Feb1010blizzard.jpg

Man are you tryin' activate traumatic memories around here?? It's nearly ten years later and that's still too soon dude, lol

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10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man are you tryin' activate traumatic memories around here?? It's nearly ten years later and that's still too soon dude, lol

Going on 11 years, and 2-3 year frequency would be fine.  I know I'm about 500 miles too far south and east but still...

It's been nearly 27 years since we had ice over snow so thick it could be driven on...

Those are fun, countless hours of donuts @WOT on the four wheelers without risk of dying (most winters ponds freeze solid but only a handful get thick enough to assure breakthrough risk is nearly non existent). ;)

 

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